Cease vs everyone else

[elextrano8]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

As if I care….use the ignore feature if your little feelings are getting hurt.

You are such a weird, strange person

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That’s cool and all, but not what I said. He’s good, just not good enough to warrant a thread about trading for him every week, nor good enough to consider giving up one of our top prospects for him. 

You said he isn’t that good. If you want to say what you just said, that’s different..it’s wrong but it’s a different.

To say he’s not that good is just false. He’s an above average starter with the potential to be ace level. I’m not giving up any of our top 4 guys for him but there is definitely reasons to trade other guys for him. 
 

I don’t disagree that there is risk that he isn’t much more than an infuriating starter with a 113 ERA+ but if that’s all he is, it’s still valuable at his cost.

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How many good players were on the Orioles last year?  Because even in a down season, Cease would have ranked fourth on your team in fWAR.

I don’t like using fWAR for pitching. It’s largely FIP-based which makes very little sense in terms of evaluating a pitcher’s actual performance on the field which is what WAR is supposed to do (and translating that to value in terms of wins). Bradish had a 3.8 fWAR and Cease had 3.7 despite Bradish having over a run and a half less ERA than Cease. Does that make any sense to you? Because it doesn’t to anyone who has a pair of eyeballs and a little common sense. 
 

Kyle Gibson also had a 2.6 fWAR which is a bit of a joke. His 1.9 rWAR seems much closer to reality and even that seems kind of high, but whatever. 
 

Cease also had a very concerning walk rate. 

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You said he isn’t that good. If you want to say what you just said, that’s different..it’s wrong but it’s a different.

To say he’s not that good is just false. He’s an above average starter with the potential to be ace level. I’m not giving up any of our top 4 guys for him but there is definitely reasons to trade other guys for him. 
 

I don’t disagree that there is risk that he isn’t much more than an infuriating starter with a 113 ERA+ but if that’s all he is, it’s still valuable at his cost.

Just admit you misinterpreted what I said and move on. It’s not hard. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Just admit you misinterpreted what I said and move on. It’s not hard. 

Oh I did and already said as much..your comment is still over the top and factually wrong.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I don’t like using fWAR for pitching. It’s largely FIP-based which makes very little sense in terms of evaluating a pitcher’s actual performance on the field which is what WAR is supposed to do (and translating that to value in terms of wins). Bradish had a 3.8 fWAR and Cease had 3.7 despite Bradish having over a run and a half less ERA than Cease. Does that make any sense to you? Because it doesn’t to anyone who has a pair of eyeballs and a little common sense. 
 

Kyle Gibson also had a 2.6 fWAR which is a bit of a joke. His 1.9 rWAR seems much closer to reality and even that seems kind of high, but whatever. 
 

Cease also had a very concerning walk rate. 

So you don’t like using stats you personally don’t understand, so that makes the stat invalid?

FIP is widely recognized stat within the saber community because of the emphasis it puts on things pitchers can control vs what they can’t.(ie balls in play, for example)

Tons of research has gone into it. It’s not just some stat that is made up out of thin air.

What pitchers can control is the best way to evaluate them.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I don’t like using fWAR for pitching. It’s largely FIP-based which makes very little sense in terms of evaluating a pitcher’s actual performance on the field which is what WAR is supposed to do 

Ubaldo somehow accrued 4.8 fWAR for us despite his 80 ERA+ while in Baltimore.   That told me everything I needed to know about fWAR.

That said, Cease is a pretty good pitcher and I fervently believe that, like all White Sox pitchers, he’d fare a lot better with a good defense behind him.  

[Sports Guy]

 By this logic, you believe that that Cano was more valuable than Cease last year. No way that’s remotely true, especially with the way Cano pitched the last 4 months of the season.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Doesn't cost prospects, doesn't cost a draft pick.

Just money.

 

Plus you would assume lineups would go right-handed heavy against him allowing the Great wall of Baltimore to do it's job.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ubaldo somehow accrued 4.8 fWAR for us despite his 80 ERA+ while in Baltimore.   That told me everything I needed to know about fWAR.

That said, Cease is a pretty good pitcher and I fervently believe that, like all White Sox pitchers, he’d fare a lot better with a good defense behind him.  

I mean, you are smarter than this Frobby. 2 of the years in Baltimore, his fWAR was a combined .5.

His 2015 season was most of that WAR and he had a good 2015 season by most metrics. 2016 was the next year and he had some good and bad stats. 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So you don’t like using stats you personally don’t understand, so that makes the stat invalid?

FIP is widely recognized stat within the saber community because of the emphasis it puts on things pitchers can control vs what they can’t.(ie balls in play, for example)

Tons of research has gone into it. It’s not just some stat that is made up out of thin air.

What pitchers can control is the best way to evaluate them.

FIP is supposed to be a predictive stat, not something to use for “unskewing” other numbers, and even if you want to argue otherwise, his career FIP is 3.84. Good but nothing spectacular. His WHIP was pretty bad last year because of the high walk rate. 
 

I’d love to have him as #4 starter but again, what the White Sox will ask for him is more than what I’d be willing to give up for him. Hence the “not that good” comment. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

FIP is supposed to be a predictive stat, not something to use for “unskewing” other numbers, and even if you want to argue otherwise, his career FIP is 3.84. Good but nothing spectacular. His WHIP was pretty bad last year because of the high walk rate. 
 

I’d love to have him as #4 starter but again, what the White Sox will ask for him is more than what I’d be willing to give up for him. Hence the “not that good” comment. 

FIP is predictive in that, it’s saying that a players ERA should be higher or lower than it was the previous year or it should go up or down as the season goes on.

It doesn’t mean that’s the ERA they should necessarily have.

When you start talking about WHIP, that throws your argument off.  If you want to worry about walks, I agree..I’m with you on that. But he had a 330 BABIP last year. That’s incredibly unlucky and while some of his statcast numbers werent that great, that’s a reflection of the poor defense behind him and he still gave up less hits than IP. But half of WHiP is defensive dependent. Judging a pitcher that way is just wrong. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

44 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That’s cool and all, but not what I said. He’s good, just not good enough to warrant a thread about trading for him every week, nor good enough to consider giving up one of our top prospects for him. 

IMO, your not taking into consideration that one word that makes this topic a lightning rod, AVAILABLE. There are finite number of players, especially pitchers. You might not like the red lollipop as much, as green, but if there "ain't no green".....then what? 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, you are smarter than this Frobby. 2 of the years in Baltimore, his fWAR was a combined .5.

His 2015 season was most of that WAR and he had a good 2015 season by most metrics. 2016 was the next year and he had some good and bad stats. 

Overall, an 80 ERA+ sucks.  It’s not worth 4.8 WAR.   rWAR says he was worth 0.1 and that’s a lot closer to the truth.   The guy went 32-42 on a team that was 34 games over .500 while he played for them.  He was above replacement level some of the time, below it sone of the time, and overall, he was a replacement level pitcher for us IMO, just like rWAR says.  

FIP to me is a badly outdated stat and I’d much rather see a version of WAR that is based on xERA or other stats that take quality of contact into account more carefully than FIP.

As to your point about Cano, it’s always hard to compare the value of a reliever and a starter, but I do think there’s a reasonable argument that Cano was more valuable than Cease last year.  Cano had a Win Probability Added of 2.7, Cease was at -0.3.   Cease’s results were below average, and while you can attribute some of that to bad luck or bad defense, that doesn’t make his season a valuable one.  I’ll say this much, I think fWAR’s 3.7 for Cease and 1.7 for Cano is way out of line.  There’s no way Cease was more than twice as valuable.  

Now mind you, I’m just riffing on fWAR here.  I still think Cease is likely to be an above average starter, and I’d like to have him.  That doesn’t change the fact that 2023 wasn’t a good year for him.  

 

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

FIP is predictive in that, it’s saying that a players ERA should be higher or lower than it was the previous year or it should go up or down as the season goes on.

It doesn’t mean that’s the ERA they should necessarily have.

When you start talking about WHIP, that throws your argument off.  If you want to worry about walks, I agree..I’m with you on that. But he had a 330 BABIP last year. That’s incredibly unlucky and while some of his statcast numbers werent that great, that’s a reflection of the poor defense behind him and he still gave up less hits than IP. But half of WHiP is defensive dependent. Judging a pitcher that way is just wrong. 

Defense isn’t the end all be all in terms of what determines ERA and WHIP over a full season. Yes, it matters, obviously, but you overvalue it. 
 

An ERA of around 4.00 seems reasonable for what to expect for Cease next year.