Mike Elias said O's upward path will "involve the major league payroll" Melewski

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

So basically you're talking about a Cease trade then.  LOL.

If you're not willing to give out a contract like the one I proposed above, and yeah, maybe you get Gray on a 3 year deal for a higher annual average but it's still in the same ballpark, then you're not going to get a pitcher who slots in our playoff rotation.  That's just reality.

So if you won't give out a contract like that then you're really only going to be able to upgrade the rotation through trade, and then it just comes back to Cease, or maybe Burnes.

Lots of trade possibilities.  Stroman or Gray in FA. 
 

Yes, that’s the exact stuff I have talked about for the last 2 months and really, always. I have zero desire to get involved in 4+ year deals for most FAs. There will always be an exception here or there but it’s rare.

I also have very little desire to sign guys to 4-12M deals..most of those deals blow up in your face too. You should be able to produce those players for a fraction of the cost. The only exception to that would be relievers but even then, it better be someone with some great stats that doesn’t look dime a dozen.

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But it isn't.

You are assuming that the players signed don't increase revenue.  The Padres aren't the best example considering their issues but you can't deny that bringing in outside talent caused an increase in revenue.  At one point they were on the receiving end of profit sharing, last season they were second in attendance.  Their attendance last year was up over a million from a decade ago.

 

And the Padres are still losing money, and not that good.

Why should we emulate the Padres?

The FACT is, no matter what the number is, high, low, or in between, the Orioles will always have a cap on their major league payroll.  Always.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

If there was some single move that would guarantee a ring, I think the entire board would advocate for it.

Nothing- spending more, trading for guys,- nothing, guarantees a ring.

The Orioles should be putting together rosters annually that are poised to make deep playoff runs.

Luckily for us, by that metric, this offseason has been a wild success, because that's exactly the kind of roster we have now and for the foreseeable future.

You keep harping that they NEED to do this or NEED to do that; the beauty of their position is they don't need to do anything.

 No, they need to get better. They don’t need to sign a pitcher for big money to do that because there are different ways to go about that but they absolutely need to get better pitching and obviously Elias agrees with that because it’s his publicly stated goal, at least one of them.

The need to increase the margin for error.

What they don’t need to do is touch the offense. They can but that’s not a need.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Lots of trade possibilities.  Stroman or Gray in FA. 
 

Yes, that’s the exact stuff I have talked about for the last 2 months and really, always. I have zero desire to get involved in 4+ year deals for most FAs. There will always be an exception here or there but it’s rare.

I also have very little desire to sign guys to 4-12M deals..most of those deals blow up in your face too. You should be able to produce those players for a fraction of the cost. The only exception to that would be relievers but even then, it better be someone with some great stats that doesn’t look dime a dozen.

Well, then we're more or less on the same page, with the exception of your want to do things now.

I will say this: Even if they don't make a trade or signing to upgrade the playoff rotation, I'm not going to be upset about it.  There's no reason that trade has to be made in the offseason as opposed to the deadline.  And I'm perfectly willing to trust Elias' discretion in regards to making those decisions.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 No, they need to get better. They don’t need to sign a pitcher for big money to do that because there are different ways to go about that but they absolutely need to get better pitching and obviously Elias agrees with that because it’s his publicly stated goal, at least one of them.

The need to increase the margin for error.

What they don’t need to do is touch the offense. They can but that’s not a need.

I tend to agree with you but am content to let Elias decide when and how the best way to improve will be.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

I tend to agree with you but am content to let Elias decide when and how the best way to improve will be.  

I’m glad you are willing to let Elias decide what to do. I mean, after all, it’s his job and we are just discussing things.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m glad you are willing to let Elias decide what to do. I mean, after all, it’s his job and we are just discussing things.

Luckily for the fans, it's his job and not ours.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

And the Padres are still losing money, and not that good.

Why should we emulate the Padres?

The FACT is, no matter what the number is, high, low, or in between, the Orioles will always have a cap on their major league payroll.  Always.

I admitted as much?????

I thought I explained the example at a very basic level.

Something was stated as an "indisputable fact" when it isn't.

And you can't even admit it.

 

 

No idea why you felt a need to mention that the O's will have a cap on their spending EVERY TEAM has a cap on their major league payroll.  Even the Mets.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I admitted as much?????

I thought I explained the example at a very basic level.

Something was stated as an "indisputable fact" when it isn't.

And you can't even admit it.

 

 

No idea why you felt a need to mention that the O's will have a cap on their spending EVERY TEAM has a cap on their major league payroll.  Even the Mets.

You're attacking things I'm not saying.  It's tedious and frankly, incomprehensible.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Pickles

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But it isn't.

You are assuming that the players signed don't increase revenue.  The Padres aren't the best example considering their issues but you can't deny that bringing in outside talent caused an increase in revenue.  At one point they were on the receiving end of profit sharing, last season they were second in attendance.  Their attendance last year was up over a million from a decade ago.

What good is an increase in revenue if it comes at the expense of costs that rise faster than revenue?  Many (not all) of the Padres issues are attributable to their spending on outside talent  They were making cash calls and taking loans for significantly more than the revenue hit they took from their RSN contract blowing up. 

[Sports Guy]

And btw, this is also why you move on from guys like Hays, Santander, Mateo and Mountcastle when they have higher value.  
 

Outside of Mateo, none of them are bad players (and obviously Mateo has his value in some ways) but they aren’t core, difference making talent.

They can be difference makers for a short period of time but guys that are generally 1.5-2 WAR type guys should be pretty replaceable if you know how to draft and develop well, which the Os now do.

So, you trade those guys..whether it be for pieces to help you win today or tomorrow depends on what you can get but recycling those types of players for cheaper options or for something that helps you win now more than they do is something you should be doing and it’s a way to keep the payroll down so that signing the 20M player or giving 15M in arb to one of your stars doesn’t matter.

In all about a stars and scrubs roster. I think it’s the best way to build a roster in any sport.

[RarityFlaherty]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's November 17th.  You got anything better to do?

Lol of course. Anything is better than worrying about things you have no control over. I’d rather just worry about my Orioles team on MLB the show. We aren’t hamstrung by ownership and could sign Ohtani if we wanted to. 

[geschinger]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which is why, to me, getting Cease makes sense. It’s why going after one of the Seattle pitchers makes sense. It’s about bringing in lower cost arms with big upside.

I don’t want to spend 5+ years on Nola. I don’t want any starter available for more than 3 years unless the AAV is way less (which isn’t happening).  And part of the reason for that is exact thing @Pickles is talking about.

But to act as if a 3/60 deal or something like that means they can’t keep their core long term is an absurd statement.

Agreed, I'm just not sure the type of pitcher that we think would be a good target at 3/60 is not going to end up getting 5/100 if the market overheats again.  I'd much rather see them go after one of the Seattle pitchers or other younger options.  I have little interest in seeing the Orioles commit more than 2-3 years to someone exiting or already having exited their peak age years.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

What good is an increase in revenue if it comes at the expense of costs that rise faster than revenue?  Many (not all) of the Padres issues are attributable to their spending on outside talent  They were making cash calls and taking loans for significantly more than the revenue hit they took from their RSN contract blowing up. 

I think you are missing the point I was trying to make.

It was stated as an "indisputable fact" that 20M spent on outside players would result in 20M not being available to retain players.  I used the increase in attendance (and other revenue streams) of the Padres as evidence that the fact could and should be disputed.

If you spent 20M on outside players and they increase revenue by 5 million the actual cost is 15 million.

That's it.  I'm not advocating doing what the Padres did.

Just saying that what was proclaimed an "indisputable fact" isn't.

How much is the Rangers' revenue going to increase due to their free agent spending last offseason?

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm saying if they have 20 million committed to a FA in 2026 that they signed in 2023, that is 20 million less to spend for the 2026 payroll.

That's what I'm saying, and it is an indisputable fact.

 

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're attacking things I'm not saying.  It's tedious and frankly, incomprehensible.

You said it.