O's should address the problem they have....

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I expect the primary starter Elias acquires is to be someone who can realistically be expected to go 170 innings to a sub-4.00 ERA.  In other words, someone better than Gibson.  I expect him to sign at least one other veteran pitcher who has demonstrated that he's durable and understands he might spend a lot of time in AAA.  He'll also find at least one good reliever probably in FA, but who knows, the team certainly has an abundance of prospect capital.

170 IP with under a 4.00 ERA would be an improvement over Gibson.  And that is good.

I taken the answer to will that starter be better than 3.30 ERA in his first 15 games is no.

[24fps]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

170 IP with under a 4.00 ERA would be an improvement over Gibson.  And that is good.

I taken the answer to will that starter be better than 3.30 ERA in his first 15 games is no.

Take my answer to include the boilerplate caveat that past performance does not guarantee future results.  McDermott & Johnson doesn't sell the insurance the O's pitching staff might need in a competitive season.

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Not a problem they don't have.

The O's have 4.5 starters.   Bradish and GRod are #1,  Means is a #3 with a career 3.74 ERA.  Kremer a 4/5.   Wells projects to give the a 3.30 ERA for about 15 starts.    That make Wells a #3 starter for half a season.    As we are seeing a starter with a  3.30 ERA is very expensive.  Especially if you want him to pitch 30 starts.   So don't do that.

Go get the other 15 starts.

We look at the projections for ERod, Giolito, or Stroman are 3 or 4 years in this market.   Heck, even Wacha and Lugo are projecting 3 years.   I just don't see Elias doing any of that.

And trading away the O's prospects with six years of control does just not make a lot of sense.  Not with Hays, Santander and Mullins are getting close to Free  Agency. (Yes, the O's need them to make the playoffs in 2024).  Cowser and Kjerstad are going to be everyday outfielders in 2025.   The O's have a year to development them.  I think Urias will be traded this off season and Mateo will make 2.7m.  He certainly will not stay in 2025 when a raise is coming.  So the O's need Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday.

My suggestion is to sign Nick Martinez 2/20m or 25m.    He can reliever in the 1st half and start in the 2nd half.  He projects to give the O's a 3.50 ERA for 100 to 110 IP.  That is the other half of the 5th starter.  

I would pitch Wells for 15 starts and then plan to option him to Norfolk.   There I would limit his innings to keep him  fresh.   And I would bring him bring to the majors for late Sept and the playoffs.   His 3.30 ERA would look real good in the playoffs.

I would sign a late inning reliever ...FA or trade for him.    Urias, Norby and Stowers are trade chips.  Who ever does not go in that trade gets traded for pitching prospects.

Irvin and McDermott are back up starters/relievers.  Starter depth.

I think this is more likely than trading away valuable prospects or spending tons of money and years  for a starter.

 

Even if we didn't make an acquisition, we have...

Cole Irvin

DL Hall

Chayce McDermott

Cade Povich

Justin Armbruster

...All in the organization and any one of them can provide 15 decent starts. Maybe a combination of them can.  I think we have to assume that the team would want to moderate John Means' innings count as well considering he's coming off Tommy John Surgery.

Personally, I am optimistic for DL Hall's career progress coming in 2024. I'm excited to see it. And Cole Irvin by himself is capable of providing 190 innings, as he has done so in 2 seasons before.

[Billy F-Face3]

8 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Even if we didn't make an acquisition, we have...

Cole Irvin

DL Hall

Chayce McDermott

Cade Povich

Justin Armbruster

...All in the organization and any one of them can provide 15 decent starts. Maybe a combination of them can.  I think we have to assume that the team would want to moderate John Means' innings count as well considering he's coming off Tommy John Surgery.

Personally, I am optimistic for DL Hall's career progress coming in 2024. I'm excited to see it. And Cole Irvin by himself is capable of providing 190 innings, as he has done so in 2 seasons before.

I forgot to mention Zimmerman. He might be able to have a couple starts.  In 2022, he actually started the season red hot. That makes me wonder if he's still got that potential in him.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

It's not a mystery.   

In 2023 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.21 ERA but his first 5 innings were in relief.  He made 5 more starts after that and ended with an ERA of 3.80.

In 2022 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.23 ERA.    He made 5 more starts before be shut down with an ERA of 3.90.  

So in two different season Wells has been able to pitch 15 starts with an ERA under 3.30.  So I round up.   

Most of us know in those two seasons that Wells had arm fatigue before he was shut down.  So if we want him in 2024 at his best they should option  him after 15 starts  before the arm fatigue causes him problems.   Limit his innings in Norfolk to keep him fresh and bring him back to the majors for late Sept and the playoff when the O's will need a starter that can pitch to a 3.30 ERA,

The magical world of Wildcard where pitchers have the same ERA, year after year.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I forgot to mention Zimmerman. He might be able to have a couple starts.  In 2022, he actually started the season red hot. That makes me wonder if he's still got that potential in him.

For me I don't count on Zimmerman for anything.  He is one of the most vulnerable players on the roster and could be DFA'd at anytime.   JMO

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Even if we didn't make an acquisition, we have...

Cole Irvin

DL Hall

Chayce McDermott

Cade Povich

Justin Armbruster

...All in the organization and any one of them can provide 15 decent starts. Maybe a combination of them can.  I think we have to assume that the team would want to moderate John Means' innings count as well considering he's coming off Tommy John Surgery.

Personally, I am optimistic for DL Hall's career progress coming in 2024. I'm excited to see it. And Cole Irvin by himself is capable of providing 190 innings, as he has done so in 2 seasons before.

With the possible exception of Irvin, I don't want to be relying on any of those players to make starts next year. Now if one of them is blowing away AAA hitters as a starter and we have an opening, that's a different story.

This is what I meant when I said our AAA depth is a question mark. I don't think any of McDermott, Povich, or Armbruster are ML ready, and even if they become ready during the year there's no guarantee they hit the ground running.

Also, I'd say there's maybe a 5-10% chance at this point that DL Hall can/will be a ML starting pitcher.

[ChosenOne21]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The magical world of Wildcard where pitchers have the same ERA, year after year.

Unless they're free agents or on another team. Then there's too much risk they'll stink in an Orioles uniform.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The magical world of Wildcard where pitchers have the same ERA, year after year.

In general I see the pitchers are like hitters.  They build up to a peck performance until they are 27 or 28  and then start a gradual decline.   Some will have sharp increases or decreases  but out of the combination of the 40 man staff they follow this peak at 27 or 28.

So Bradish and GRod are still climbing.  Kremer is at his peak and will begin a gradual decline.  Means is a veteran that has reached his peak, fell with TJ surgery and now will come back to his base line of  performance in 2024 but be in gradual decline.   

Wells has reached his peak at 3.30 ERA in 15 starts and is in a gradual decline.  

Holt and company have fixed Irvin to become starter depth.  He is a mid to long reliever that can start when needed.   HIs 2nd half shows that managed well he can give an ERA under 4.00.   He is pitching depth.

McDermott is building toward  a peak.   Its unknown how high that peak will be.

What Elias is trying to do is add to  the core starting group.   To give depth to it.   Add 15 to 25 good starts to it. 

Elias/Holt has built a pitching development team through the minors and into the majors that helps pitchers reach their peak and maintain it for as long as they can.   But the decline after 27/28 is inevitable.  They can only help manage it.  They can't change the fact that it will  happen.

This is my basis for thinking about player development   and no pitcher will follow it completely.  There are always those that don't conform to it.  So no pitchers and players are not the same year after year.   They build and then decline.  Slowly in some cases.  Injuries make for quick falls.

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by wildcard

[Matt Bennett]

15 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

INeither Cowser or Westburg demonstrated that they are MLB ready players last season. 

Why lump Westburg in with Cowser? 100 OPS+ with impressive defense and sneaky speed. 

[Roll Tide]

I expect Elias to bring in a modest upgrade over Gibson. I don’t know if he will trade for a guy like Bieber or Cease. But, a guy that at least give you quality over quantity. My guess remains Wacha for 2 years at 12.5 ish.

[HakunaSakata]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Sound great.  I am in favor of it.  Sounds like what was supposed to happen last off season and didn't.

I don't think last offseason and this offseason is really an apples to apples comparison. The bar/expectation for winning games is much higher this offseason and the Orioles are in a much better position to make a trade given Henderson and Rutschman's success and the continued development of some of their younger players. For example, penciling in players like Kjerstad and Westburg for regular ABs is less of a gamble than it would have been last off season.

I understand the general sentiment of assuming the team won't spend money or make any big moves, but I really think offseason is a different and unique situation because of where the team is in terms of performance and player development. And I'm willing to hold my judgement until I see what they do. Now don't get me wrong, if they continue to sit on the sidelines and only sign players like Nick Martinez then I'll be the first in line to criticize the team and ownership. 

[backwardsk]

See, @wildcard, you lowballed him.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/reds-nick-martinez-agree-to-two-year-deal.html

[Roll Tide]

On 11/22/2023 at 1:16 PM, wildcard said:

Not a problem they don't have.

The O's have 4.5 starters.   Bradish and GRod are #1,  Means is a #3 with a career 3.74 ERA.  Kremer a 4/5.   Wells projects to give the a 3.30 ERA for about 15 starts.    That make Wells a #3 starter for half a season.    As we are seeing a starter with a  3.30 ERA is very expensive.  Especially if you want him to pitch 30 starts.   So don't do that.

Go get the other 15 starts.

We look at the projections for ERod, Giolito, or Stroman are 3 or 4 years in this market.   Heck, even Wacha and Lugo are projecting 3 years.   I just don't see Elias doing any of that.

And trading away the O's prospects with six years of control does just not make a lot of sense.  Not with Hays, Santander and Mullins are getting close to Free  Agency. (Yes, the O's need them to make the playoffs in 2024).  Cowser and Kjerstad are going to be everyday outfielders in 2025.   The O's have a year to development them.  I think Urias will be traded this off season and Mateo will make 2.7m.  He certainly will not stay in 2025 when a raise is coming.  So the O's need Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday.

My suggestion is to sign Nick Martinez 2/20m or 25m.    He can reliever in the 1st half and start in the 2nd half.  He projects to give the O's a 3.50 ERA for 100 to 110 IP.  That is the other half of the 5th starter.  

I would pitch Wells for 15 starts and then plan to option him to Norfolk.   There I would limit his innings to keep him  fresh.   And I would bring him bring to the majors for late Sept and the playoffs.   His 3.30 ERA would look real good in the playoffs.

I would sign a late inning reliever ...FA or trade for him.    Urias, Norby and Stowers are trade chips.  Who ever does not go in that trade gets traded for pitching prospects.

Irvin and McDermott are back up starters/relievers.  Starter depth.

I think this is more likely than trading away valuable prospects or spending tons of money and years  for a starter.

 

 

 

The problem is we have a cheap owner. The real problem is we need the team to be sold!