Winter Meetings Thread

[DirtyBird]

Exciting Day 1 of Winter Meetings

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think Mayo is much closer to ready than Holliday.  Mayo put up an 1,100 OPS in September.  Holliday was just getting acclimated to AAA pitching when the season ended.  I think he barely got his OPS to .800, or just barely missed it. 

Yeah I totally acknowledge that. For whatever reason, I just hadn't been considering Mayo. And reporters aren't really talking about him like they are with Holliday. It's hard for me to not see the O's taking a shot at one (or both?) of these guys as a ROTY candidate this year. I dunno. We have to freaking get rid of some guys man. 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

 

We shall see. There are a lot of factors that will determine when Holliday makes the majors:

1) Team need at 2B or SS
2) Holliday's AAA performance both offensively and defensively
3) Long-term Economic factors
4) Orioles team performance

Gunnar Henderson, who was the equivalent type of prospects, but was more physical, stronger and probably faster than Holliday at the same age, didn't make his major league debut until he was 21-years old after 295 AAA PAs. Holliday has 91 PAs in AAA. 

If Westburg and/or Ortiz are still here come spring, one of them is going to be the everyday 2B. I personally think Mayo is going to be the opening day 3B with Gunnar at SS. 

If Westburg/Ortiz is playing well at 2B, the team is doing well, why would they start Holliday's clock at the major league level? Plus, if they give him the Gunnar treatment and bring him up on Aug 31st, he's playoff eligible and they can keep his PAs under the amount to keep him a a rookie in 2025.

Now, could Holliday force his way to the big leagues by dominating and then Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo struggle and they decide to bring him up sooner, sure, that's a possibility.

But the best plan when you take both short term and long term implications is for Holliday to spend most of 2024 in the minors IF Westburg/Ortiz are playing well and there's no need on the major league team. 

There still could be trades so that could change things, but I definitely think saying it's "zero chance" this happens is hyperbole at it's finest.

I realize fans want to see Holliday and rightfully so, he's going to be a fun player to watch, but this is an organization that signed Adam Frazier last year despite having both Westburg and Ortiz ready to take over 2B and Urias as a backup plan. 

If Mayo wins 3B this spring and Westburg and/or Ortiz is still in the organization, Holliday is going spend a lot more time in AAA then you guys think. This organization has five players in AAA that are fully major league ready (Ortiz/Mayo/Kjerstad/Norby/Cowser). Holliday is nearly ready but it's too early for me to say he's absolutely ready after just one minor league season.

Could he be, sure, because his hit tool is special. But he still needs to grow into his man strength and his defense needs to be more consistent at both SS and 2B. 

 

I agree with almost all of this except the first paragraph about Henderson. Holliday went through 4 levels at 19 years old, and in his first full season at 20, Gunnar went through 3 levels.

At 20 Gunnar had an .826 OPS combined in those 3 levels with 16SB and 56 walks and 143 Ks.

At 19, Holliday had a combined .941 OPS across 4 levels with 24 SB and 101 walks to 118 Ks. I'm not ready to say Gunnar was more advanced at the same age. Gunnar did have 17 HRs combined vs 12 for Holliday.

Holliday did play 20 more games than Gunnar in the seasons I'm referring to.

[Just Regular]

The Hyde segment from this morning:

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

 

We shall see. There are a lot of factors that will determine when Holliday makes the majors:

1) Team need at 2B or SS
2) Holliday's AAA performance both offensively and defensively
3) Long-term Economic factors
4) Orioles team performance

Gunnar Henderson, who was the equivalent type of prospects, but was more physical, stronger and probably faster than Holliday at the same age, didn't make his major league debut until he was 21-years old after 295 AAA PAs. Holliday has 91 PAs in AAA. 

If Westburg and/or Ortiz are still here come spring, one of them is going to be the everyday 2B. I personally think Mayo is going to be the opening day 3B with Gunnar at SS. 

If Westburg/Ortiz is playing well at 2B, the team is doing well, why would they start Holliday's clock at the major league level? Plus, if they give him the Gunnar treatment and bring him up on Aug 31st, he's playoff eligible and they can keep his PAs under the amount to keep him a a rookie in 2025.

Now, could Holliday force his way to the big leagues by dominating and then Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo struggle and they decide to bring him up sooner, sure, that's a possibility.

But the best plan when you take both short term and long term implications is for Holliday to spend most of 2024 in the minors IF Westburg/Ortiz are playing well and there's no need on the major league team. 

There still could be trades so that could change things, but I definitely think saying it's "zero chance" this happens is hyperbole at it's finest.

I realize fans want to see Holliday and rightfully so, he's going to be a fun player to watch, but this is an organization that signed Adam Frazier last year despite having both Westburg and Ortiz ready to take over 2B and Urias as a backup plan. 

If Mayo wins 3B this spring and Westburg and/or Ortiz is still in the organization, Holliday is going spend a lot more time in AAA then you guys think. This organization has five players in AAA that are fully major league ready (Ortiz/Mayo/Kjerstad/Norby/Cowser). Holliday is nearly ready but it's too early for me to say he's absolutely ready after just one minor league season.

Could he be, sure, because his hit tool is special. But he still needs to grow into his man strength and his defense needs to be more consistent at both SS and 2B. 

 

Why do you think Mayo is ready defensively to play 3B for the O's on OD?

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Aglets said:

I have been consistently saying I thoroughly expect Holliday to make the O's out of Spring Training.

I know some prominent users disagree.  But i think they are misreading Elias and his history / strategic thinking.

It’s simple.  If he looks like he’s clearly better than the competition, he’ll probably make the team.  If it’s close, he probably won’t.  He’s competing with guys who are much more experienced than he is, so even though he’s more talented he may not be ready to win the competition.   But we’ll see.  

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s simple.  If he looks like he’s clearly better than the competition, he’ll probably make the team.  If it’s close, he probably won’t.  He’s competing with guys who are much more experienced than he is, so even though he’s more talented he may not be ready to win the competition.   But we’ll see.  

Good article.  With Kostka and Meoli at the Banner is there a better place to get good takes on the Orioles?

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/jon-meoli-orioles-roster-makeup-IOXH57XDORC3NKLG6F2XLUXYOI/

[Sports Guy]

 

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

 

 

[Roll Tide]

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

I agree with almost all of this except the first paragraph about Henderson. Holliday went through 4 levels at 19 years old, and in his first full season at 20, Gunnar went through 3 levels.

At 20 Gunnar had an .826 OPS combined in those 3 levels with 16SB and 56 walks and 143 Ks.

At 19, Holliday had a combined .941 OPS across 4 levels with 24 SB and 101 walks to 118 Ks. I'm not ready to say Gunnar was more advanced at the same age. Gunnar did have 17 HRs combined vs 12 for Holliday.

Holliday did play 20 more games than Gunnar in the seasons I'm referring to.

If you go back and reread my comment, I said Henderson was more physical at the same age, not necessarily amore advanced. Henderson was definitely stronger and he's two inches taller and is just a more physical guy all-around. 

Holliday is definitely the more advanced hitter at the same age though. Also, let's not forget that Gunnar basically lost an entire year of his minor league career due to COVID so it's tough to do a pure age for age comparison statistically. 

Again, I'm not trying to diminish Holliday in any way besides just being honest about his physicality vs a guy like Gunnar Henderson or say, Manny Machado. Now, could Holliday end up a better hitter overall then these guys, sure.  

 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good article.  With Kostka and Meoli at the Banner is there a better place to get good takes on the Orioles?

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/jon-meoli-orioles-roster-makeup-IOXH57XDORC3NKLG6F2XLUXYOI/

My promotional subscription expired.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Why do you think Mayo is ready defensively to play 3B for the O's on OD?

As I stated in his scouting profile, he improved a bunch last year defensively. His footwork improved and in turn his accuracy in throwing improved. The biggest change was at Norfolk where they worked on him with a drop step on balls hit to his right allowing him to play closer to the hitter. this allowed him to come on on more balls effectively.

There are still going to be some errors and while he's not a plus defender, I do think he can be an adequate defensive 3B who will also make some plays others can't because his absolute hose of an arm.

 

[HakunaSakata]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My promotional subscription expired.  

Right click on the hyperlink then save it to your desktop. Then open the hyperlink in Chrome. You should be able to view/read an unformatted version of the article. I'm not advocating this as a long term thing, but it's useful for one off articles on pay sites that you don't visit / read regularly. 

[Sports Guy]