Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

For me Givens being left off the Mets playoff roster was a PRETTY BIG RED FLAG, no idea what Elias was thinking.

The fact that Kimbrel was ineffective against the D-rays in the playoffs scares me. Did we sign up a washed up reliever two years in a row?

I don't think this team needs to be spending 13 million on a 36 yo reliever.

Trade some ML IF depth and bring in guys with upside

I think you meant D-Backs , but how did he he pitch against Miami and Atlanta

[Billy F-Face3]

13 minutes ago, e16bball said:

One interesting note with Kimbrel is that he was absolutely spectacular when throwing to JT Realmuto (1.86 ERA, .535 OPSA) and absolutely awful when throwing to Garrett Stubbs (8.04 ERA, .838 OPSA). 

He pitched 17 times with Stubbs behind the plate, so it’s not as though that was just one or two bad days inflating the numbers. Kimbrel had 5 outings where he gave up multiple ERs, and Stubbs was the catcher on 3 of those 5 occasions (60%). He gave up any runs at all in 16 outings, and Stubbs was the catcher on 7 of those 16 occasions (44%). That seems pretty noteworthy when you consider that Stubbs only caught him in 17 of his 71 outings (24%).

Stubbs really only started catching full-time (well, as a full-time backup) in 2022. He certainly does not have the background to match guys like Realmuto, Rutschman, and McCann. Perhaps Elias and his crew think there’s something to exploit in that data.

Good post. Something that is definitely worth thought.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, e16bball said:

One interesting note with Kimbrel is that he was absolutely spectacular when throwing to JT Realmuto (1.86 ERA, .535 OPSA) and absolutely awful when throwing to Garrett Stubbs (8.04 ERA, .838 OPSA). 

He pitched 17 times with Stubbs behind the plate, so it’s not as though that was just one or two bad days inflating the numbers. Kimbrel had 5 outings where he gave up multiple ERs, and Stubbs was the catcher on 3 of those 5 occasions (60%). He gave up any runs at all in 16 outings, and Stubbs was the catcher on 7 of those 16 occasions (44%). That seems pretty noteworthy when you consider that Stubbs only caught him in 17 of his 71 outings (24%).

Stubbs really only started catching full-time (well, as a full-time backup) in 2022. He certainly does not have the background to match guys like Realmuto, Rutschman, and McCann. Perhaps Elias and his crew think there’s something to exploit in that data.

I’m not sure if there is anything to this data but I’m certainly not convinced there is nothing to it either.  Good info.

[Frobby]

The team as a whole had a 3.97 ERA with Realmuto, 4.23 with Stubbs.  

[Frobby]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/elias-on-kimbrel-i-think-it-s-a-great-deal-for-all-sides

“I think he brings what he does to this team,” said executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias. “He is one of the best closers in baseball history at this point. He’s still got a lot in the tank and he had a really solid season (this) year and we see a lot of things from a scouting perspective going forward that has us placing a pretty big bet that this guy’s going to have a really good season for us.”

The first conversation that Elias had at the GM meetings involved Kimbrel’s representative.

“I just think it was that obvious of a fit,” he said. “We’ve got this really great team, great roster, that’s missing its closer because of injury. We’ve got a guy who loves pitching leverage innings and closing out games, and he loves winning, and he saw a team that could use him, so we talked early.

“Obviously, it took a while to get the deal and the finances figured out, which is normal, but we had a nice meeting with Craig, with (manager) Brandon Hyde, and it was pretty clear that we wanted him and he wanted to come join this Orioles team. So, I think it’s a great deal for all sides.

“I think an important feature for us is we do have a club option for 2025, so if this turns out to be a good fit, I think that’s going to be nice for us. I think both parties are entering this arrangement with the spirit of this potentially being a two-year thing. We’re optimistic about it. I feel way more structured when we think about our bullpen now to have Craig in there, and the plan is for him to be the closer, and we were very clear about that when we signed him and that’s what we want him to do. It doesn’t mean Brandon’s not going to use him to face the middle of the order in a tie game in the eighth inning. You know how it goes. But he’ll be leading the pack there from the back end of the bullpen”

[mall-O-cup]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

Yeah just going to have to hope we don't run into too many extra inning games, especially in away games. I also believe he's not been good in innings other than the 9th, like as a setup man, etc. 

So... yeah, it's gonna be a little bit dicey for sure. I think he's gonna be one of those guys where quietly he's mostly good, but he has enough rough outings where you're just never comfortable seeing him come in and he will drive a lot of fans nuts.

Overall, though, he should be solid. 

I'm already starting to get that same feeling of queasiness when I see Keegan Akin or Mike Baumann on the mound. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by mall-O-cup
Wrong highlight color

[Orange]

9 hours ago, Orange said:

Elias said he wanted someone with closing experience. I think 417 saves qualifies. He made 1/10 last year and then outperformed the year prior (FIP notwithstanding), so I'd expect something like 1/12 but hopefully with a team option tacked on. (Another 1/18 with a $2m buyout?)

Not a bad guess, huh? 1/12 with a team option for year two at $18m ($2m buyout). Just slightly off on the option.  This horn ain't gonna toot itself.

[Billy F-Face3]

22 minutes ago, Orange said:

Not a bad guess, huh? 1/12 with a team option for year two at $18m ($2m buyout). Just slightly off on the option.  This horn ain't gonna toot itself.

Not bad at all.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Safelykept said:

Givens in Spades yes  plus 20, Frazier no, Frazier did exactly what he was brought here to do, Veteran presence, left handed bat, bring the pups along at the Orgs, pace plus a 1.7 WAR which is fair value for 8 million and he did that in a little over 400 at bats. Bad comparison to the Givens signing.

Frazier was worth .4 FWAR which was much closer to his actual value. He blocked two prospects who were ready. Frazier wasn't as bad as Givens since Givens literally did nothing, but Frazier was not a good signing.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Frazier was worth .4 FWAR which was much closer to his actual value. He blocked two prospects who were ready. Frazier wasn't as bad as Givens since Givens literally did nothing, but Frazier was not a good signing.

Look at it this way: Frazier bought us an extra year of Westburg’s services and delayed his eligibility for arbitration by a year.  Thats probably going to be worth a lot more than $8 mm if Westburg is a 2-3 WAR player or better.  

[Billy F-Face3]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Look at it this way: Frazier bought us an extra year of Westburg’s services and delayed his eligibility for arbitration by a year.  Thats probably going to be worth a lot more than $8 mm if Westburg is a 2-3 WAR player or better.  

I didn't think of that. I like your positive spin on it. Definately worth more than $8M and we had some good moments along the way in the 2023 season.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Look at it this way: Frazier bought us an extra year of Westburg’s services and delayed his eligibility for arbitration by a year.  Thats probably going to be worth a lot more than $8 mm if Westburg is a 2-3 WAR player or better.  

Westburg is not the kind of player that I'm worried about arbitration or service issues. While it worked out in the sense that the team won 101 games, I look at the major league development time lost by Westburg and maybe Ortiz due to Frazier playing. 

But that's over and this is a thread about Kimbrel.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Westburg is not the kind of player that I'm worried about arbitration or service issues. While it worked out in the sense that the team won 101 games, I look at the major league development time lost by Westburg and maybe Ortiz due to Frazier playing. 

But that's over and this is a thread about Kimbrel.

One last thing on Frazier.  No one is shocked by his .3 FWAR which was 1.1 in 2022 but it is surprising how he got there.  He had positive defensive WAR since 2018 including 4.4 in 2022.  His defense just cratered last year to -10.9.  

[EddeeEddee]

4 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Let's imagine you live out your life for another 45 years... that's a annual salary of $111,111.11 each year. A 6 figure salary is decent for most middle class Americans. And if you're single, that goes even farther.

But I'm derailing the thread with that, so I digress.

Just live on the interest at today's rates and you'd have somewhere around $250,000 per year to live on -- and you wouldn't have spent any of the original $5 million.  

[E-D-D-I-E]

Personally I like the signing. I am afraid that he moves Wells to the rotation and stops us from getting a very good starter. Wells gives us a lot of depth in the pen. 

Santa, bring me Burnes and I will be elated!