Hall vs one year deals

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I’m open to Cabrera for Ortiz+ in theory (with not a whole lot more in the “+”), but I don’t have the background of his injury history. Another similarity with Hall, he’s 25 and just looking at his stats seems like he’s missed time in the past with some regularity. 

If you don’t think there’s any serious red flags with his health then seems like the Orioles and Marlins match up well for a deal to be had that works for both sides. 

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/edward-cabrera-2-player-injuries

[CaptainRedbeard]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You and Sports Guy keep saying "Blake Snell" type, but the two years he's been an effective starting pitcher over an entire season, both times he pitched 180 innings and was not a 3 or 4 inning opener. This 3-4 inning opener stuff is garbage because teams can't build effective bullpens to cover the innings load that kind of pitcher creates. 

Feel free to hold out hope for Hall because the Giants, who are paying Hicks like a reliever, supposedly want to give him a shot as a starter. I will say this, if he or the Giants really felt like he was a starter, he wouldn't have signed for $11 mil year for 4 years. He knows he's a reliever.

 

 

If Hall is only able to pitch 3-4 innings as a starter then I agree he’s not a starting pitcher. Same for Jordan Hicks. If you think there’s a 0% chance he could do better than that, then sure, don’t bother. But Blake Snell pitched in the 7th inning 3 times all of last season. He was 5-6 IP in all but those 3 starts and 3 times in April when he pitched <5 IP.  Snell hit 180 IP but he made all 32 starts and only averaged 5.625 IP per start last year.

I think Hall still has the potential to similarly average 5-6 IP per start, even if it’s a small chance. Maybe it’s closer to 5 IP per start, but a SP who averages 160 IP and 3+ WAR per 32 starts is still much more valuable than a RP who averages 1+ WAR per 65 IP. The injury risk would have to be considerably higher to make it more worthwhile to be a RP.

And I agree 4/44 for Hicks is based on him being a RP. The Giants know that it’s a very remote chance that he can transition to the rotation, and that deal is based on his RP floor. But the point is that they still think it is worth it to see if he can be a SP instead, even if they would have given him that exact same deal if he was going to be a RP. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Comparing DL Hall to Blake Snell seems a bit mesmerizing until you get into the numbers and realize that they are very different pitchers.

The similarities: 

1. Both LH

2. Both 1st round picks out of high school.

3. Both debuted in MLB at age 23.

4. Both struggle to stay healthy.

5. Both throw 4SFB at about 95.5 mph.

The differences:

1. Snell has been able to pitch 180 IP twice in his career, (both were CYA years) while Hall's career high is 94 when he was 19 in A ball.

2. Snell throws 4 pitches effectively. 4SFB (48.6%), CB (19.8%), CU (18.4%) and SL (13.1%). Hall throws 4 pitches but really is a 3 pitch guy, 4SFB (53.6%), SL (25.9%), CU (16.4%), CB (4%). Snells whiff % on his breaking and off speed pitches are CB (56.3%), CU (46.8%) and SL (53.6%). Hall's  whiff % SL (31%), CU (36.4), CB (0%). There is a reason he doesn't throw the CB much. 

3. Snell is 31. Hall is 25. However, Snell had made the AS team and won his first CYA in his age 25 season.

 

[Roll Tide]

20 hours ago, RZNJ said:

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/edward-cabrera-2-player-injuries

Finger and blister are likely the same recurring injury. Anyway we shouldn’t be shopping in the 1.4-1.6 + WHIP bin ….1.3 to 1.6 is considered above average to bad. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Finger and blister are likely the same recurring injury. Anyway we shouldn’t be shopping in the 1.4-1.6 + WHIP bin ….1.3 to 1.6 is considered above average to bad. 

The idea would be to fix the WHIP if we traded for him.

If you can, you might just have a genuine ace on your hands.

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Finger and blister are likely the same recurring injury. Anyway we shouldn’t be shopping in the 1.4-1.6 + WHIP bin ….1.3 to 1.6 is considered above average to bad. 

You’re near sighted, aren’t you?

[Just Regular]

55 minutes ago, Jim&#x27;sKid26 said:

Comparing DL Hall to Blake Snell seems a bit mesmerizing until you get into the numbers and realize that they are very different pitchers.

The differences:

At Arizona Fall League, Nick Pollack/Pitcher List gave a presentation and one of the slides had a graphic with something called I think it was "Miss percentage".

It basically tried to measure the accuracy of pitch's actual location vs. intended location, and was counted in something like inches away from catcher target.    Snell was Barry Bonds far and away the best at this during 2023, and it helped me appreciate some of how he registers the BABIPs/ERAs he has.      He's basically Kevin Gregg "he won't give in" with good enough stuff, and Bats perhaps more seldom get something to hit against him than anyone in baseball.    I believe some of Snell's walk rates are essentially on purpose and he actually has good command - he's a notable pitcher for getting at the Zen of command v. control.

DL Hall still feels like Crash telling Nuke he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.      If the Stuff+ is hot enough ala Felix/Fujinami, close to the ballpark can be plenty good enough.     All the Driveline students of the week are chasing pitch metrics where they are survivable even if left in the heart of the zone.     Friends don't let friends throw slow.

I don't feel like Snell's essential skill is a good long-term bet and would be okay if an AL rival allocated big long-term money towards him.

[Roll Tide]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re near sighted, aren’t you?

Maybe I should ask the

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The idea would be to fix the WHIP if we traded for him.

If you can, you might just have a genuine ace on your hands.

Sorry but we are competing now. We shouldn’t be signing projects.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Sorry but we are competing now. We shouldn’t be signing projects.

I’d say  he’s a couple of steps above being a project, at least as I use the term.  The guy has thrown nearly 200 innings in the majors with an ERA+ of 108.  I’d call that a decent major league pitcher who could be pretty special if he could lower his walk rate.  

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say  he’s a couple of steps above being a project, at least as I use the term.  The guy has thrown nearly 200 innings in the majors with an ERA+ of 108.  I’d call that a decent major league pitcher who could be pretty special if he could lower his walk rate.  

My problem is why are we so cheap that we need to have our staff work on a guys walk rate. I have the same complaint with Cease and that’s not to mention the ransom to get Cease here. So given the choice it’s Paxton at the rumored price for Cease.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Sorry but we are competing now. We shouldn’t be signing projects.

He has a 6.6 H/9 and 10.1 K/9 in roughly a full 32 start season's worth of innings so far in his career, has 5 years of control, and hasn't even turned 26 yet.

I literally don't care in the slightest if we're contending or rebuilding or doing whatever it is that the Rockies are doing, that is a guy I want in my organization, ESPECIALLY since Mike Elias' Orioles have put together a pretty good track record of fixing pitchers.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

One note on the Marlins starters - the potentially available names all are worse in the Stuff+ and PitchingBot pitch modeling metrics than you would think based on watching them. 

Alcantara and Perez are strong but Luzardo and Cabrera are only 102 and 103 in Stuff+ for instance. Doesn’t match up with their velo and K rates. Rogers and Garrett 96 and 91. Luzardo is stronger by PitchingBot but it’s otherwise similar. 

I don’t know how much weight to put on that, but I do think the Orioles care about pitch modeling. Their RP acquisitions are always good in this area. The SP acquisitions - Gibson and Irvin and to some degree Flaherty - are not, but Bradish and Grayson are excellent and even Means and Kremer are average or above. Maybe this means the Orioles would not covet these Marlins arms in the same way they would Cease, whose stuff is elite in this modeling. 

And perhaps Cabrera isn’t viewed as having ridiculous stuff in the way that you would think based on watching him. 

[Sports Guy]

Seeing as Tony wants to continue to twist words and not quite represent what is being meant by saying a Snell TYPE guy, let me make it clear what I and others mean.

Even if I take away the covid year, Snell has 4 MLB seasons of throwing less than 130 innings. For his career, he averages getting less than 16 outs a game.  He has a career str% of 61%, which is almost 3% below the league average.  His career walk rate is over 4. He averages .35 pitches/PA more than the league average.

So, he’s a guy that, normally speaking, struggles to go deep in games. He struggles to give you a lot of innings. He isn’t pitch efficient. He has command and control issues. Yet despite all of that, he is set to get 160+M and has 2 CY awards.  Why?  Because he has great stuff.  He misses bats, strikes out a ton of guys and is reasonably strong at keeping the ball in the park.

When I say a Blake Snell type guy..this is exactly what I mean…a player who isn’t extremely pitch efficient and doesn’t go deep into games but when he is in there, can overwhelm you with his stuff and still be effective. 

It doesn’t mean he will be Snell or that he will have multiple years of 180+ IP or win 2 CY awards.

Tony likes to point out the lack of innings for Hall and that’s absolutely right. The other side to that is that maybe if he can stay healthy and post every 5 days, just maybe he will show a lot more than he has, as he just gains experience and innings. 

I agree that it is a long shot at this point but the stuff is there. The athleticism is there. And right now, he is on a team with 2 other guys that are what they are. Neither is a guy you want starting in the playoffs (and this doesn’t count an opener). Neither is a guy that is going to overwhelm an opponent and be a big weapon in Oct, as a starter.

There is still some chance Hall can be that guy, even if it’s just a small chance.

So, am I willing to start the year with him getting 7-10 starts to see if he can do something with them?  Absolutely. Why?  Because the upside is immense and the downside in doing it is very little. You still have Irvin and Wells on the team to pitch on those days if he struggles.

His destination is, without question, most likely in the pen and he may be the best high leverage reliever in baseball in a few years. I’m not concerned about whether or not he can handle the pen. I’m not worried about the idea of changing his Role. His role has already changed throughout his career and he has handled it. What I am worried about is finding a starter that could be a real third starter in the playoffs. That’s more important.

Edited January 14 by Sports Guy

[Safelykept]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Seeing as Tony wants to continue to twist words and not quite represent what is being meant by saying a Snell TYPE guy.

Even if I take away the covid year, Snell has 4 MLB seasons of throwing less than 130 innings. For his career, he averages getting less than 16 outs a game.  He has a career str% of 61%, which is almost 3% below the league average.  His career walk rate is over 4. He averages .35 pitches/PA more than the league average.

So, he’s a guy that, normally speaking, struggles to go deep in games. He struggles to give you a lot of innings. He isn’t pitch efficient. He has command and control issues. Yet despite all of that, he is set to get 160+M and has 2 CY awards.  Why?  Because he has great stuff.  He misses bats, strikes out a ton of guys and is reasonably strong at keeping the ball in the park.

When I say a Blake Snell type guy..this is exactly what I mean…a player who isn’t extremely pitch efficient and doesn’t go deep into games but when he is in there, can overwhelm you with his stuff and still be effective. 

It doesn’t mean he will be Snell or that he will have multiple years of 180+ IP or win 2 CY awards.

Tony likes to point out the lack of innings for Hall and that’s absolutely right. The other side to that is that maybe if he can stay healthy and post every 5 days, just maybe he will show a lot more than he has, as he just gains experience and innings. 

aI agree that it is a long shot at this point but the stuff is there. The athleticism is there. And right now, he is on a team with 2 other guys that are what they are. Neither is a guy you want starting in the playoffs (and this doesn’t count an opener). Neither is a guy that is going to overwhelm an opponent and be a big weapon in Oct, as a starter.

There is still some chance Hall can be that guy, even if it’s just a small chance.

So, am I will to start the year with him getting 7-10 starts to see if he can do something with them?  Absolutely. Why?  Because the upside is immense and the downside in doing it is very little. You still have Irvin and Wells on the team to pitch on those days if he struggles.

His destination is, without question, most likely in the pen and he may be the best high leverage reliever in baseball in a few years. I’m not concerned about whether or not he can handle the pen. I’m not worried about the idea of changing his Role. His role has already changed throughout his career and he has handled it. What I am worried about is finding a starter that could be a real third starter in the playoffs. That’s more important.

Yes good points, you don't necessarily need to bring in Cease or another Starter ,but if you could bring in another top BP arm , you got good options out of the pen (Hall Wells to a certain extant Irvin) to Start. Were just spitballing potential trades here, but Ive always liked Miami as trade partner better, Of course you would love luzardo but guys like Cabrera or Max Meyer, they would come cheaper than Cease but could both be big time arms out of the BP or Starters. The possibilities in front of Elias are many