Corbin Burnes quote re: extension vs free agency

[Matt Bennett]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think we should analogize to the Astros much.  You’re right that the situation has changed and our expectations have changed.  However, I don’t expect the Orioles to eventually spend what the Astros recently have.  The Astros had $407 mm in revenue last year, compared to $264 mm for the Orioles.  Their break-even point on payroll is significantly higher than ours.  And, the Astros have been pretty choosy about their long term commitments.  Extend young players?  Yes.  Hand out relatively short but high-dollar FA contracts to pitchers?  Yes.  5-7 year deals to FA pitchers?  Nope.  

THE ASTROS JUST GAVE JOSH HADER 5 YEARS 

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

THE ASTROS JUST GAVE JOSH HADER 5 YEARS 

And this is a tease their Luhnow-rooted intellectual capital is perhaps eroding (Rafael Montero, Jose Abreu), and Josh Hader and Justin Verlander had better defeat Gunnar Henderson in October 2024 because 2025 and on they are going to have a very tough time ever doing so again.

Sigbot likes the optionality of leasing not owning.     Maybe we'll get Dylan Cease in 2025 and Jesus Luzardo in 2026 on Kyle Gibson-Craig Kimbrel-Corbin Burnes type terms just in case Seth Johnson isn't Cy Young or something.

Today's ablest practitioners of the Luhnow style not presently managing minor league soccer teams in Europe due to reasons seem like they may be David Stearns and Mike Elias.     So much will Trevor Bauer ever come back drama...we should be wondering if Jeff Luhnow or Mike Elias is at the top of Hal Steinbrenner's wishlist.

 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

THE ASTROS JUST GAVE JOSH HADER 5 YEARS 

Okay, you’re right.  That’s so new I forgot about it. Still, that’s less than a $100 mm commitment.  And like I said, the Astros can afford a higher payroll without the owner subsidizing his team.  

[oriolediehard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Where did Burnes say that?

If I’m Burnes, right now I wouldn’t extend unless I got an offer that blew me away.  Now, it he’s here for three months, loves it here, and sees nothing but pennant contention for the nrxt 7 years if he stays, maybe he’s a little more eager to sign up.  But there’s very little advantage to him to signing with a team he was traded to but doesn’t know yet.   

Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes

February 1st, 2024 at 11:59pm CST • By Anthony Franco

It is on MLBTR: Quote: It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”

Earlier in December: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/corbin-burnes-trade-rumors-extension-free-agent.html

[oriolediehard]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Where did he say that?

Not saying he didn’t, but I haven’t seen it. Boras was asking for 9/270 for Snell so I would think it would be well beyond that for Burnes, who has had zero injury issues and pitches a ton of innings, unlike Snell.  

See quote I sent to Frobby.

[Matt Bennett]

51 minutes ago, interloper said:

And I reject your assumption of the new owner coming in ready to throw around bags of money, or that Elias only makes this trade if he thinks he can extend Burnes, or that Elias had anything to do with how the Astros spent money in the years since he's been gone. 

Uhhhh yes. I am expecting and assuming our new owner will increase payroll significantly, considering he is significantly wealthier than our previous owner and has extremely wealthy partners. Peter Angelos had us up to $164M. If Rubenstein can't spend significantly more than John Angelos...I'm not sure what the 99.99% of Orioles fans who were rejoicing are celebrating. John Angelos hired the right person. He just wouldn't allow spending. Now we can spend. If we don't, I'm sure I will come to despise Rubenstein for being more of a cheapass than Angelos. 

Again, you brought up the Astros. I guess "the culture" Elias inherited from them discontinued after Elias left? 

Yes, I'm operating under the assumption that Elias has been handcuffed. If he PREFERRED to sign 1 year of Kyle Gibson over 2 years of Nathan Eovaldi, 3 years of Chris Bassit, 3 years of Zach Eflin....I am disturbed. 

[cravens86]

6 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes

February 1st, 2024 at 11:59pm CST • By Anthony Franco

It is on MLBTR: Quote: It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”

Earlier in December: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/corbin-burnes-trade-rumors-extension-free-agent.html

He doesn’t say that he will accept that though. He said the offer has to blow them away. MLBTR are the ones who say it’ll be around that number. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

5 minutes ago, cravens86 said:

He doesn’t say that he will accept that though. He said the offer has to blow them away. MLBTR are the ones who say it’ll be around that number. 

Exactly. That’s speculation from MLBTR.  My speculation, based on Boras asking for 9/270 for Snell and Burnes’ quotes about commitment to testing the market, is that the price for a Burnes extension right now is far in excess of $200-$250M and he’ll likely be looking to beat Cole’s $325M. 

[jabba72]

12 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

See quote I sent to Frobby.

Burnes isnt saying that, mlbtr is speculating 200-250m, which is probably too low if Burnes has a typical season. If he pitches to a 4.50 ERA, then maybe 175-200m.

[Sports Guy]

If you could get him for 4/120-140, sure…but you can’t. It’s not realistic to think he would sign for 4 or even 5 and probably not even 6 years right now.

Combine that with the fact that he is already seeing some decline in his stats And I’m not sure why you would even want an extension.

 

[Aristotelian]

I definitely dont expect an extension. The only thing that favors the O's is the possibility of QO incentivizing a team friendly deal. 

[Malike]

I am certain the Orioles knew they were getting Burnes for 1 year. They paid a price that would indicate that. If they gave up a bigger prospect haul there would probably have been some pressure for an extension but they have a full year of him and during that time they can plan for his exit.

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

..I am disturbed. 

Congratulations!  That’s the first and most important step.  

[Sports Guy]

Honestly, I don’t think Elias would want to extend him even if Rubenstein said to do it.

[StottyByNature]

We got a one-year ace at a one-year price.  It was excellent work by Elias but no one should expect anything further.  I can't wait to watch him pitch.