Service time games, 2024

[Frobby]

Here’s a few dates;

April 12: The earliest date Holliday or Mayo could be called up without earning a full year of service time, unless one finishes top 2 ROY.

April 30: The earliest date Kjerstad could be called up without earning a full year of service time, unless he finishes top 2 ROY.

May 25: The earliest date Cowser could be called up without earning a full year of service time, unless one finishes top 2 ROY.

June 8: Probably the “safe” date to call up Holliday or Mayo without them earning Super-2 status after the 2026 season.  The least service time that has ever earned Super-2 is 2 years, 115 days.  As of June 8, there will only be 114 days left in the 2024 season.  

June 26: Safe Super-2 date for Kjerstad. 

July 21: Safe Super-2 date for Cowser.

Personally, I don’t think the O’s will play any service time games with anyone who clearly deserves to make the team this spring.  But if it’s less than clear, these dates may become relevant.  

 

[Hallas]

Elias was pretty adamant that the only reason they did it with Rutschman is because he got injured during spring training so I really doubt they will do it with anyone unless they are also injured.

[Billy F-Face3]

I think Kjerstad makes the team right out of Spring Training.

[Just Regular]

Guessing for the dollar value of Club control of season 7 in a very best case scenario, Juan Soto with 5.134 service has commanded $31M in his final Arb year.    His AAV at the high end let's just call $50M for back of the napkin - he's younger and a better hitter than Ohtani.    Obviously games could be played if he wants to do the Miggy/Xander thing and be paid until he is 46 years old or something.

$20M is about the maximum for that one final year.    You can't forecast anyone to be Soto - I think we'd be happy if Holliday's imagined Arb 3/4 vs. FA gap was ~$15M, and the other guys even $10M might correspond with a nice 5-6 year achievement.

The RoY bonus incentive is I believe worth ~$10M, as it is ~$2M in draft pool dollars, and I loosely believe Steve Cohen's comment they are worth ~5X a dollar on the open market.

Bats Playing time remains tight as DL Hall became part of the first big trade, and Ortiz didn't project into a big role.    BP started their PECOTA week this morning - and for today their human input depth charts give the four big rookies PA as follows: Holliday 490, Kjerstad 280, Cowser 105, Mayo 70.     

Those outcomes could align with the Club gaining another year of control in all four cases.     Will Samuel Basallo get a minute in a Norfolk lineup with all four of those guys?    Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard might be good at their roles.

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a few dates;

April 12: The earliest date Holliday or Mayo could be called up without earning a full year of service time, unless one finishes top 2 ROY.

April 30: The earliest date Kjerstad could be called up without earning a full year of service time, unless he finishes top 2 ROY.

May 25: The earliest date Cowser could be called up without earning a full year of service time, unless one finishes top 2 ROY.

June 8: Probably the “safe” date to call up Holliday or Mayo without them earning Super-2 status after the 2026 season.  The least service time that has ever earned Super-2 is 2 years, 115 days.  As of June 8, there will only be 114 days left in the 2024 season.  

June 26: Safe Super-2 date for Kjerstad. 

July 21: Safe Super-2 date for Cowser.

Personally, I don’t think the O’s will play any service time games with anyone who clearly deserves to make the team this spring.  But if it’s less than clear, these dates may become relevant.  

 

Great post. It’s good to have this to reference. 

Holliday stays down unless he signs an extension. It’s just business. Mayo is down in AAA until his date or injury.

If there are no injuries, then even Cowser and Kjerstad start the year down in AAA. That’s the reason we brought in Hilliard. Why have a prospect as a 4th OF. 

Eventually, I think Cowser comes up as the everyday RF with Santa taking O’Hearn’s AB at DH. 

Guys like Hilliard, Nevin, Urias, and Mateo will occupy the bench spots on OD. No need to have a top prospect as a bench piece that barely plays. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

There’s also a mid-August date with <45 games remaining when Holliday or Mayo (or even Basallo) would be eligible for ROY next year. That’s the date they called up Gunnar.

I don’t think there’s any chance Holliday is left down that long after trading Ortiz, but if there’s no clear spot for Mayo to play and they want to wait until the Super 2 anyway that could be relevant. 

That date is also just about 2 weeks after the trade deadline, so if they need to use the trade deadline to deal a vet to make space for a prospect, it’s shortly after. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

There’s also a mid-August date with <45 games remaining when Holliday or Mayo (or even Basallo) would be eligible for ROY next year. That’s the date they called up Gunnar.

I don’t think there’s any chance Holliday is left down that long after trading Ortiz, but if there’s no clear spot for Mayo to play and they want to wait until the Super 2 anyway that could be relevant. 

That date is also just about 2 weeks after the trade deadline, so if they need to use the trade deadline to deal a vet to make space for a prospect, it’s shortly after. 

That date will be relevant for Basallo imo.  He could get the Gunnar treatment this year for sure.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

That date will be relevant for Basallo imo.  He could get the Gunnar treatment this year for sure.

I don’t know if that’s a good thing if Basallo is up. That means most of Santa/Hays/O’Hearn/Mounty/Hilliard/Cowser/Kjerstad are either hurt or really having a bad year. Unless we really want Basallo around as a 3rd catcher/pinch hitter option when rosters expand. 

[waroriole]

It would be pretty stupid to not play service time games with Holliday, unless there’s an injury or two in the IF. I think it would be hard to say Holliday should absolutely be starting ahead of Urias at this point. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t know if that’s a good thing if Basallo is up. That means most of Santa/Hays/O’Hearn/Mounty/Hilliard/Cowser/Kjerstad are either hurt or really having a bad year. Unless we really want Basallo around as a 3rd catcher/pinch hitter option when rosters expand. 

Or it means that Basallo is just that good and better than those guys and gives us a better chance to win. 
 

This season isn’t tied to how good Hilliard or OHearn are, so not sure why they are even mentioned here.

[Aglets]

I have been saying consistently for months that Holliday makes the OD roster (barring injury).

Going to double down once more here.  Come at me!

[IPlayGM]

I see both sides of this argument, and honestly I don’t exactly know where I sit on it. I am really curious how Elias will decide to handle it.

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That date will be relevant for Basallo imo.  He could get the Gunnar treatment this year for sure.

I don't think they want to add him to the 40.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I have been saying consistently for months that Holliday makes the OD roster (barring injury).

Going to double down once more here.  Come at me!

Heck with it. Just bat him lead off OD. We’d have to hold him down till June to keep him out of the top 2 in ROY.  

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Heck with it. Just bat him lead off OD. We’d have to hold him down till June to keep him out of the top 2 in ROY.  

There are a lot of good rookies this year.  As talented as Holliday is, guys like Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford, some of his own teammates, etc…are older and more mature. There’s no slam dunk he would be top 2. 
 

I think Carter is the easy favorite to win the award, ala Gunnar last year.

Edited February 5 by Sports Guy