Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[Bemorewins]

11 hours ago, forphase1 said:

First is whomever gets cut to give him a spot is possibly lost if claimed.  The Os like hoarding talent to a point.   Second, if he's up some favorites like Mateo and Urias get less playing time.  That's great from my perspective, but I'm not making the decision.  Third, the competition for ROY this year appears to be intense.  If getting that extra pick is really a serious consideration, he's likely to have a better shot next year due to his additional maturity and the rookie class may not be as deep.   

As I've stated,  I don't agree with starting him in AAA, and I want him starting OD at 2nd for the Os.  But I expect him in AAA for at least a few weeks,  maybe a couple of months and possibly, though maybe unlikely,  for a large part of the season. 

I think the competition for ROY most years is going to be stiff, but if he’s that good (number 1 prospect in the sport like Gunnar and Adley were) his talent will shine.

Also, in your estimation, what is more important - Holliday having been in the Majors long enough this season to make any acclimating adjustments (like just about all of our top prospects recently have had to make when coming to this level) so that he can be ready to roll by the postseason? Or the draft pick that we could potentially get in 2026 when he would presumably be ROY in 25?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Mayo is 2 years older, and has 200 more AAA plate appearances, and over .100 point higher OPS at that level and hit well vs both RHP and LHP.

What does that mean? Are you inferring that Mayo is a better prospect or has more potential that Jackson Holliday? Or something else?

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What does that mean? Are you inferring that Mayo is a better prospect or has more potential that Jackson Holliday? Or something else?

It means he is 2 years older, and has 200 more AAA plate appearances, and over .100 point higher OPS at that level and hit well vs both RHP and LHP.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

It means he is 2 years older, and has 200 more AAA plate appearances, and over .100 point higher OPS at that level and hit well vs both RHP and LHP.

I get all of that and knew that already. But I was just asking how that information was related to what I posted?

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I get all of that and knew that already. But I was just asking how that information was related to what I posted?

Because the discussion related to who the best, most major league ready, players are right now. Not who is the best long term prospect is.

[Sports Guy]

As I asked a few weeks ago, why does Holliday deserve to be one here over Mayo? 

[Hank Scorpio]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As I asked a few weeks ago, why does Holliday deserve to be one here over Mayo? 

We have an embarrassment of riches, really.

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Because the discussion related to who the best, most major league ready, players are right now. Not who is the best long term prospect is.

Understood. So you believe that Mayo is a better player now, but Holliday will be in the future?

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Understood. So you believe that Mayo is a better player now, but Holliday will be in the future?

Maybe. He could be. I don't think it is a sure thing. But it isn't really relevant to who belongs on the opening day roster.

[forphase1]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think the competition for ROY most years is going to be stiff, but if he’s that good (number 1 prospect in the sport like Gunnar and Adley were) his talent will shine.

Also, in your estimation, what is more important - Holliday having been in the Majors long enough this season to make any acclimating adjustments (like just about all of our top prospects recently have had to make when coming to this level) so that he can be ready to roll by the postseason? Or the draft pick that we could potentially get in 2026 when he would presumably be ROY in 25?

In my estimation he should start the season as our OD 2nd, and should be in MLB all year.   Let him get any mlb growing pains out of the way now.   But it's not my estimation that's relevant.  I'm arguing based on what I expect Elias and the Os will do,  not what I'd do if I was in charge.  I'd much rather have him letting his talent shine in mlb and learning what he needs here, as I think his talent is so good he doesn't need much more milb seasoning.   But I'm not the GM, and I'm not weighing service time,  future arbitration or contract status or even the ROY draft picks,  all of which a good GM is likely pondering and weighing, at least to some degree. 

I think the chances of Holliday being sent down at about 85%.  Then if sent down I think it's 100% sure he's down long enough to get the year of service back,  likely 70% chance he's kept down long enough to avoid super 2 status and a very low, but not zero, chance they keep him down long enough to be a rookie next year...10-15% chance or so.   Unlikely,  but not impossible or completely outside the realm of possibilities either. 

[forphase1]

56 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It is clear that you don’t want to believe that Holliday will start the season with the O’s which is cool. But I wonder why you continue to group Holliday with Mayo. Not that Mayo is not an outstanding prospect but Holliday is on another level, his own tier. When was the last time you can recall a player jumping 4 levels as a teenager? The last I can recall is maybe A-Rod?

You stated in the post above about Elias’ comments before the Spring about Holliday being PR. But he could have simply said Holliday will have an opportunity to compete, but he said on multiple occasions that Holliday would be given every opportunity to make the team out of Spring. There’s a difference there.

Also, why would the O’s  promote him last year at warp speed only to slow play him this year? What is the sense in that in terms of the relationship with the player longterm?  They could have easily kept him mainly at SS and used his defense as “a reason” why he was not ready. No?

Mayo v Holliday.  I think Mayo is more mlb ready TODAY with the bat than Holliday.  Holliday is a bigger talent and likely has a better career,  but Mayo is more ready to help the team now than Holliday.  Also, for me at least,  I like Westburg,  who Holliday replaces, better than I like Urias, who Mayo replaces.  Having Mayo on the roster I feel makes us overall better than Holliday based on both current readiness and who they take playing time from. 

PR speak is still PR speak.  All needs taken with grain of salt and can't read too much into it,  good or bad. 

Holliday was promoted as deserved.  He showed he outclassed the competition at every level.   But he hasn't yet proven that in AAA as he wasn't there long enough.   I don't think he needs to be there either,  but I expect him to be. 

[OriolesMagic83]

9 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Mayo v Holliday.  I think Mayo is more mlb ready TODAY with the bat than Holliday.  Holliday is a bigger talent and likely has a better career,  but Mayo is more ready to help the team now than Holliday.  Also, for me at least,  I like Westburg,  who Holliday replaces, better than I like Urias, who Mayo replaces.  Having Mayo on the roster I feel makes us overall better than Holliday based on both current readiness and who they take playing time from. 

PR speak is still PR speak.  All needs taken with grain of salt and can't read too much into it,  good or bad. 

Holliday was promoted as deserved.  He showed he outclassed the competition at every level.   But he hasn't yet proven that in AAA as he wasn't there long enough.   I don't think he needs to be there either,  but I expect him to be. 

At this point in the season, it's probably easier to get fair value for Urias than Westburg.  One thing Elias has shown is that he won't be giving players away.  When you hold onto Odor and Frazier for full season, other teams get no freebies.  Hey I admit Frazier was decent with the bat.  What's a reasonable return for Urias, a bullpen arm w/ options?  I doubt it will be a premium arm either.  Someone like Tate or Perez before they broke out with the O's. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Maybe. He could be. I don't think it is a sure thing. But it isn't really relevant to who belongs on the opening day roster.

Sounds like you are really really high on Mayo. Maybe not as high on Holliday as the consensus of the baseball evaluating industry? I hope Mayo is as good as you believe.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

Mayo v Holliday.  I think Mayo is more mlb ready TODAY with the bat than Holliday.  Holliday is a bigger talent and likely has a better career,  but Mayo is more ready to help the team now than Holliday.  Also, for me at least,  I like Westburg,  who Holliday replaces, better than I like Urias, who Mayo replaces.  Having Mayo on the roster I feel makes us overall better than Holliday based on both current readiness and who they take playing time from. 

PR speak is still PR speak.  All needs taken with grain of salt and can't read too much into it,  good or bad. 

Holliday was promoted as deserved.  He showed he outclassed the competition at every level.   But he hasn't yet proven that in AAA as he wasn't there long enough.   I don't think he needs to be there either,  but I expect him to be. 

If it was merely PR speak, couldn’t Elias have chosen to make the same comments about Mayo that he did about Holliday?

You don’t think there was a reason behind that? Or a reason that they promoted Holliday so aggressively and are switching his position?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

As I asked a few weeks ago, why does Holliday deserve to be one here over Mayo?