JJ Cooper: Tanking is not why the Orioles won 101 games

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not just, someone like Mayo was picked because of the extra slot money.

Every single team signs over slot guys in the draft.  This is complete bs.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

There's no real connection between the tanking and the 101 win O's.

But, the tanking did create the ability to draft Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday in the top 5. A team that's trying at least a bit to win may not get those picks, especially not the 1-1 Holliday pick three years after the 1-1 Rutschman pick. If Holliday and the others are a major part of the team's success going forward then tanking will have contributed to that. 

There is a fairly good chance that the Os could have won 8-12 more game in those years and still end up with HK and Cowser.  A lot of people felt they would be picked in the 8-12 area.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Every single team signs over slot guys in the draft.  This is complete bs.

So you are saying the additional slot money isn't an advantage?

Is that your stance?

 

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To be clear..what picks are you talking about?

We can make up any number of multiverses.  But the goal was to increase the draft pool and infuse talent from the ground up.  Some of our eventual draftees may have been there later.  Or even better alternatives.  But the managerial goal was to get as many high quality shots on goal as possible.

2018 wasn't tanking.  'Sellers' trade away talent when they aren't contending.  I don't think 2022 deadlines deals were tanking either.

But the low payroll?  That was part of a bigger plan.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

We can make up any number of multiverses.  But the goal was to increase the draft pool and infuse talent from the ground up.  Some of our eventual draftees may have been there later.  Or even better alternatives.  But the managerial goal was to get as many high quality shots on goal as possible.

2018 wasn't tanking.  'Sellers' trade away talent when they aren't contending.  I don't think 2022 deadlines deals were tanking either.

But the low payroll?  That was part of a bigger plan.

The low payroll was part of the plan to fund the wife's music career.

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The low payroll was part of the plan to fund the wife's music career.

It did other stuff as well.  But valid...

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a fairly good chance that the Os could have won 8-12 more game in those years and still end up with HK and Cowser.  A lot of people felt they would be picked in the 8-12 area.

That's probably right. The Holliday year though, win only one more game and you fall below ARI for 1-1. Lose 100 games instead of 110 and you're picking 4th. Maybe they still get Holliday in that scenario (and maybe guys grow differently in different orgs, etc). But Holliday is the one major asset in our org that you can very directly tie to the tanking strategy, and he's a big one. 

[Just Regular]

Elias told Jayson Stark the other day there were intense phone calls to the Gunnar Henderson camp and even when he pulled the magnet off the board he thought he was incurring some signability risk.

2018 World Series champions may have had to blow their entire pool, which Duquette may have considered.     We'd never know Dean Kremer like we do now.

[ShoelesJoe]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Elias told Jayson Stark the other day there were intense phone calls to the Gunnar Henderson camp and even when he pulled the magnet off the board he thought he was incurring some signability risk.

2018 World Series champions may have had to blow their entire pool, which Duquette may have considered.     We'd never know Dean Kremer like we do now.

There were eight SS drafted ahead of Gunnar in 2019, and every one of them received a higher signing bonus than he did. If we'd won it all in 2018 and were drafting last in 2019 he'd have still been there for the taking and affordable if we'd wanted him.

[StottyByNature]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os went 19-46 after the trading Manny.

They won 29% of their games pre Manny trade..and they won 29% of their games post Manny trade.

That team didn’t tank. They just sucked. Adley and Gunnar were not drafted a result of ranking. Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday were.  That’s it.

Players don't tank, organizations tank.  That the record didn't drop has nothing to do with the fact that the organization traded off good players for players that would help in the future.  When teams "sell" they are folding in the season for better future odds, aka tanking.

The Lopez trade was definitely tanking as was holding off on starting Adley's service time.  They were trying to cluster their prospects for a window of competitiveness even though he was clearly ready earlier.

 

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

There were eight SS drafted ahead of Gunnar in 2019, and every one of them received a higher signing bonus than he did. If we'd won it all in 2018 and were drafting last in 2019 he'd have still been there for the taking and affordable if we'd wanted him.

I do credit Elias with being a sharper negotiator than Duquette would have been

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you are saying the additional slot money isn't an advantage?

Is that your stance?

 

Most of the additional slot money is tied up into the higher pick. So, it is a little overblown.

But no, that’s not exactly what I’m saying. I saying that every team, no matter where they pick in the first round, signs over slot guys.

The Os could have just as easily not drafted Servideo and Haskin, punted on those picks and still signed Baumler and Mayo if they had less money.  There are many ways to handle the draft and the draft pool you have.

In the Ben Davis draft, the Pirates went way over slot on multiple picks and punted several others.  Nothing wrong with that if you value guys highly.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

That's probably right. The Holliday year though, win only one more game and you fall below ARI for 1-1. Lose 100 games instead of 110 and you're picking 4th. Maybe they still get Holliday in that scenario (and maybe guys grow differently in different orgs, etc). But Holliday is the one major asset in our org that you can very directly tie to the tanking strategy, and he's a big one. 

100% agree

That said, as we have seen with the Angels, one player does not a team make.

[foxfield]

Gunner cannot be looked at as a benefit of tanking....Every single team in MLB had a chance to draft him and did not.  And as SG already pointed out, the Orioles were definitely not "tanking" in 2018.  When they did punt, it was prudent and also in character for a cheap team.

Coby Mayo was passed not once, not twice, but three times by every team in MLB.  (I know he was not involved with the OP list of top 10 players in our '23 season.)

Tanking helped the Orioles in their draft position, that is obvious.

But their success is clearly superior drafting and excellent resource management by Elias.  Even if you account for the multiplier affect of having more higher chances...the quality of picks is what has made the difference.  

Rutschman, was not the slam dunk choice of everyone.  Gunner was passed by everyone as was Westburg and Ortiz.

The Orioles clearly tanked in 2019, 2020, 2021.  The only player acquired during that time who impacted the 101 wins in 2023 was Bradish who as the OP pointed out was acquired in the Bundy trade.  You could argue that either way as Bundy was clearly not going to be here long enough to survive the tank.  Moving him was as much for financial reasons and was clearly a move that even non tanking teams make....see Milwaukee Brewers and Corbin Burnes.

 

5 of the 10 players were acquired by Elias and you can debate what the Orioles development by Elias had to do with Bautista who was already here.

Mullins, Hays, Santander and Mountcastle were all here, but clearly given the opportunity to develop during the tank...they were very valuable to the 101 wins, but no one is begging for them on the trade market.

IF the Orioles win the WS in 2024 and Holliday is ROY/MVP in any combination, then the tanking is definitely involved.  But it is also fair to point out that even Holliday when we picked him was not the consensus #1 pick.  Many thought the pick was an example of the O's underslotting to get more talent later.

The Orioles did tank.  From 2019-2021.  That is indisputable.  I think a fair analysis of that time period and how it has impacted the Orioles on the field (in '23) would reach the conclusion that the fruit from that period is still yet to be produced.

 

Edited March 13 by foxfield

[Rbiggs2525]

While I agree tanking is not the reason the Orioles won 101 games last year, it was a small factor. 
 

We were one of roughly 10 teams able to sign Adley and Gunnar in the draft at their 10 million dollar asking price. The Dodgers had roughly 6 million to spend on draft pool last year. Kjerstad was underslot to have a shot at Mayo. Only a few teams could have done that.
 

I am not the one to be offended when another teams fan says well you tanked. You say well we tanked but we also did 75% other stuff right. Tyler Wells rule 5, Bradish for Bundy, Cano for Lopez and so on. The tanking part is to keep the sustained success of this run. 
 

We also tried the other way. Signing Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and so on. This organization needed a total breakdown and built from ground up again. Teams like the Chicago White Sox should follow suit.
 

 

Edited March 13 by Rbiggs2525