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JJ Cooper: Tanking is not why the Orioles won 101 games


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Top 10 players on the 2023 O's by WAR and how we acquired them.

1. Gunnar -  high 2nd round pick in 2019 draft.  (impacted by big sell-off in 2018......to me this is related to tanking but it's true that Elias didn't control what happened to 2018 team although he did control the 2019 draft)

2. Bradish - came back in 2019 Dylan Bundy trade.  I would argue this was a pro-tanking move.  

3. Adley - 1st overall pick in 2019 draft.  Whatever you say about Gunnar would also apply here.  Definitely related to tanking.  If we don't pick 1st overall in 2019 maybe we don't get him.

4.  Bautista - Acquired in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

5.  Santander - Rule 5 pick in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

6.  Mullins - Drafted in 2015.  Not related to tanking.

7. Cano - Jorge Lopez trade in 2022 with the Twins.  I would argue this was related to tanking.  People definitely got a little upset with this move at the time.  Granted not as much as the Mancini trade.  But def related to sacrificing the present for the future.

8. Hays - Drafted in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

9.  Mountcastle - Drafted in 2015.  Not related to tanking.

10.  Urias - Waiver claim in 2020.  Not related to tanking.

 

So it's complicated.    The top 3 players on the team came to the 2023 roster in part because we chose to sacrifice the present for the long term health of the organization.

So did we win 101 because of tanking?   Yes and no.....it's subjective to a degree admittedly.  The majority of the players on that list did not come from tanking it's true.

I think it's ALSO worth noting though that we didn't quite end up where we wanted to in 2023.   And tanking is 100% related to why we were able to trade for Corbin Burnes and still have the top rated farm system in baseball.

So I feel pretty comfortable in saying that although tanking may not have been the sole reason why we won 101 in 2023, it was absolutely a contributing factor...............AND..........

Tanking will be one of the main reasons why we win our next pennant and World Series.

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Just now, Aglets said:

Top 10 players on the 2023 O's by WAR and how we acquired them.

1. Gunnar -  high 2nd round pick in 2019 draft.  (impacted by big sell-off in 2018......to me this is related to tanking but it's true that Elias didn't control what happened to 2018 team although he did control the 2019 draft)

2. Bradish - came back in 2019 Dylan Bundy trade.  I would argue this was a pro-tanking move.  

3. Adley - 1st overall pick in 2019 draft.  Whatever you say about Gunnar would also apply here.  Definitely related to tanking.  If we don't pick 1st overall in 2019 maybe we don't get him.

4.  Bautista - Acquired in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

5.  Santander - Rule 5 pick in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

6.  Mullins - Drafted in 2015.  Not related to tanking.

7. Cano - Jorge Lopez trade in 2022 with the Twins.  I would argue this was related to tanking.  People definitely got a little upset with this move at the time.  Granted not as much as the Mancini trade.  But def related to sacrificing the present for the future.

8. Hays - Drafted in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

9.  Mountcastle - Drafted in 2015.  Not related to tanking.

10.  Urias - Waiver claim in 2020.  Not related to tanking.

 

So it's complicated.    The top 3 players on the team came to the 2023 roster in part because we chose to sacrifice the present for the long term health of the organization.

So did we win 101 because of tanking?   Yes and no.....it's subjective to a degree admittedly.  The majority of the players on that list did not come from tanking it's true.

I think it's ALSO worth noting though that we didn't quite end up where we wanted to in 2023.   And tanking is 100% related to why we were able to trade for Corbin Burnes and still have the top rated farm system in baseball.

So I feel pretty comfortable in saying that although tanking may not have been the sole reason why we won 101 in 2023, it was absolutely a contributing factor...............AND..........

Tanking will be one of the main reasons why we win our next pennant and World Series.

The Os didn’t tank 2018. They entered the season definitely trying to win. They sucked early and then sold off but that wasn’t their intention, so your points about Gunnar and Adley are wrong.

Lopez trade wasn’t tanking. They won 83 games. That was prioritizing the future over the present but that’s not tanking.

Bundy was a guy they didn’t want to resign anyway. That is partly due to tanking because it’s just clearing the roster some but you could have done that anyway, whether tanking or not.  And Bradish is a guy they could have gotten any number of ways. 
 

Your last statement is just factually wrong.

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They didn't enter 2018 intending to tank.  But circumstances changed.  So they sacrificed present wins for the future.

I mean, i think you are factually wrong in saying I am factually wrong.   At least you sorta kinda give me Bradish.....more than happy to take that.

What I sincerely hope most of all..............is when we win the pennant in this year or next.........the very first thing you do is start a thread on here entitled,  "Yes we won but it didn't have to be this way!"

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I think it's just too early to feel the impact of tanking. That does not mean the strategy is or isn't vindicated. Tanking was definitely a factor in acquiring Holliday, and may also have helped us get Mayo and Westburg. Without tanking we might have 100 wins, but I don't think we'd still have the #1 farm system. Overall, I am very happy with Elias's long term strategy.

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10 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Top 10 players on the 2023 O's by WAR and how we acquired them.

1. Gunnar -  high 2nd round pick in 2019 draft.  (impacted by big sell-off in 2018......to me this is related to tanking but it's true that Elias didn't control what happened to 2018 team although he did control the 2019 draft)

2. Bradish - came back in 2019 Dylan Bundy trade.  I would argue this was a pro-tanking move.  

3. Adley - 1st overall pick in 2019 draft.  Whatever you say about Gunnar would also apply here.  Definitely related to tanking.  If we don't pick 1st overall in 2019 maybe we don't get him.

4.  Bautista - Acquired in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

5.  Santander - Rule 5 pick in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

6.  Mullins - Drafted in 2015.  Not related to tanking.

7. Cano - Jorge Lopez trade in 2022 with the Twins.  I would argue this was related to tanking.  People definitely got a little upset with this move at the time.  Granted not as much as the Mancini trade.  But def related to sacrificing the present for the future.

8. Hays - Drafted in 2016.  Not related to tanking.

9.  Mountcastle - Drafted in 2015.  Not related to tanking.

10.  Urias - Waiver claim in 2020.  Not related to tanking.

 

So it's complicated.    The top 3 players on the team came to the 2023 roster in part because we chose to sacrifice the present for the long term health of the organization.

So did we win 101 because of tanking?   Yes and no.....it's subjective to a degree admittedly.  The majority of the players on that list did not come from tanking it's true.

I think it's ALSO worth noting though that we didn't quite end up where we wanted to in 2023.   And tanking is 100% related to why we were able to trade for Corbin Burnes and still have the top rated farm system in baseball.

So I feel pretty comfortable in saying that although tanking may not have been the sole reason why we won 101 in 2023, it was absolutely a contributing factor...............AND..........

Tanking will be one of the main reasons why we win our next pennant and World Series.

I think you're heading in the right direction here.

Tanking might have had a minimal impact on the 2023 results.  But picks after 2020 will impact future results.  Hopefully with a handful of rings!  But at least a decade of relevancy. 

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6 minutes ago, Aglets said:

They didn't entire 2018 intending to tank.  But circumstances changed.  So they sacrificed present wins for the future.

I mean, i think you are factually wrong in saying I am factually wrong.   At least you sorta kinda give me Bradish.....more than happy to take that.

What I sincerely hope most of all..............is when we win the pennant in this year or next.........the very first thing you do is start a thread on here entitled,  "Yes we won but it didn't have to be this way!"

The Os went 19-46 after the trading Manny.

They won 29% of their games pre Manny trade..and they won 29% of their games post Manny trade.

That team didn’t tank. They just sucked. Adley and Gunnar were not drafted a result of ranking. Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday were.  That’s it.

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6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think you're heading in the right direction here.

Tanking might have had a minimal impact on the 2023 results.  But picks after 2020 will impact future results.  Hopefully with a handful of rings!  But at least a decade of relevancy. 

To be clear..what picks are you talking about?

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For say Tony Clark, Adley was fairly gotten (and thank you organization and especially Brady Anderson for paying prominent MLBPA member Alex Cobb).

Cobb is basically the Chris Davis mini-me of the Peter/Buck operation even Dan Duquette knew had issues.

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16 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Top 10 players on the 2023 O's by WAR and how we acquired them.

1. Gunnar -  high 2nd round pick in 2019 draft.  (impacted by big sell-off in 2018......to me this is related to tanking but it's true that Elias didn't control what happened to 2018 team although he did control the 2019 draft)

19 teams passed on drafting Gunnar once, 7 teams (including the Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers) passed him up twice, the Rays passed on him three times, and the Diamondbacks had four chances to pick him and went with somebody else each time. There is no way in hell the Henderson pick can be linked to tanking. 

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16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os went 19-46 after the trading Manny.

They won 29% of their games pre Manny trade..and they won 29% of their games post Manny trade.

That team didn’t tank. They just sucked. Adley and Gunnar were not drafted a result of ranking. Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday were.  That’s it.

Not just, someone like Mayo was picked because of the extra slot money.

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There's no real connection between the tanking and the 101 win O's.

But, the tanking did create the ability to draft Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday in the top 5. A team that's trying at least a bit to win may not get those picks, especially not the 1-1 Holliday pick three years after the 1-1 Rutschman pick. If Holliday and the others are a major part of the team's success going forward then tanking will have contributed to that. 

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