Jackson Holliday 2024

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

We've discussed his fielding ad nauseum but even as critical as I've been of it, I'm still running him out to 2B for the remainder of the year. He's not going to get better coaching than what he has with the big club and right now his on-base ability is needed far more than a better defender, less offense 2B would provide. If he's going to improve defensively, it's going to happen at the Major League level and the only way for him to do that is to keep going out there and playing the position. I'm sure that I will cuss and rage if a misplay of his costs them a run in a close game but if he's getting on-base and scoring runs, I'm sure that I'll be able to deal with it. 

This is an organization that ran out Odor at 2B for almost a full year.  I'm sure that Holliday will be much better.  This organization also used Wigginton and Rio Riuz in the past under different leadership.  I believe that Holliday will be above average at 2B.  He's fast, he works hard, and he listens to coaching.  The fact he was able to make such a drastic improvement against MLB pitching bodes well for him improving his defense too, imo.

[banks703]

28 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The fact he was able to make such a drastic improvement against MLB pitching bodes well for him improving his defense too, imo.

But it doesn’t though. There are major holes in his fundamentals. Don’t get me wrong, I do think that he will improve but I have serious doubts that he will become even an average defensive infielder and I am certain that won’t happen at SS. The term 5-tool player means that a guy can hit for average (check), hit for power (check), run (check), glove it (ehhhh) and throw it (no) and things only the hitting skills impact each other. My concern of his arm strength is lessened by his move to 2B but the other things remain questionable for me. Just because he learned to adjust to major league pitching as a hitter doesn’t mean that he’s going to develop as a defender. His calling card is his stick. That will remain true whether he’s in the dugout, in the outfield or at 2B. But just because he’s shown an improvement at the plate doesn’t mean anything for his defense.

Again, I’m still running him out there every inning for the remainder of the year. If he’s going to improve it’s going to come with game reps. I still do not rule out a move to the grass and think it may end up being what’s best for him and the team. We will see what they do with him but for now I would not do anything to disrupt what he’s doing at the plate. Run him out there every inning of every game until he forces them to make a change. I don’t think that will happen as he’s not going to kill them out there but as I mention above, a move to the outfield may be what is best for him and the team. We will see. As long as he’s hitting, I don’t care if he’s sitting in the stands. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, banks703 said:

But it doesn’t though. There are major holes in his fundamentals. Don’t get me wrong, I do think that he will improve but I have serious doubts that he will become even an average defensive infielder and I am certain that won’t happen at SS. The term 5-tool player means that a guy can hit for average (check), hit for power (check), run (check), glove it (ehhhh) and throw it (no) and things only the hitting skills impact each other. My concern of his arm strength is lessened by his move to 2B but the other things remain questionable for me. Just because he learned to adjust to major league pitching as a hitter doesn’t mean that he’s going to develop as a defender. His calling card is his stick. That will remain true whether he’s in the dugout, in the outfield or at 2B. But just because he’s shown an improvement at the plate doesn’t mean anything for his defense.

Again, I’m still running him out there every inning for the remainder of the year. If he’s going to improve it’s going to come with game reps. I still do not rule out a move to the grass and think it may end up being what’s best for him and the team. We will see what they do with him but for now I would not do anything to disrupt what he’s doing at the plate. Run him out there every inning of every game until he forces them to make a change. I don’t think that will happen as he’s not going to kill them out there but as I mention above, a move to the outfield may be what is best for him and the team. We will see. As long as he’s hitting, I don’t care if he’s sitting in the stands. 

I admit, I haven’t been watching a ton lately but you keep mentioning bad fundamentals.   Fundamentals are learned.   Whatever bad habits or poor footwork he has now can be changed through hard work and repitition.   Why hasn’t it already occurred?  No idea.  But I do think he can become at least an average 2B.    

[Moose Milligan]

I’m refusing to make any judgements about where he will end up on defense. He’s still 20 and while he’s very good and wildly talented, there’s still a lot of development and refining to do. 

[LookitsPuck]

On 8/9/2024 at 12:15 PM, banks703 said:

The lack of arm strength conversation predates the elbow injury this year. I wrote up a pretty detailed post last year about how weak his arm is compared to other SS in the league. He does have good range but that doesn't mean much if he can't field it and can't throw it. 

His arm strength is just fine. Especially at 2B. 

His grades for arm were 55.  And these were done at SS. The main quip was on longer throws he can lack carry. But arm strength can increase over time, especially since we are talking about a 20 year old who has been moved around the diamond. I anticipate the arm issue to not be an issue. As for defensive prowess, his fielding trends similarly. 

I haven't seen anything to show that he couldn't get better at 2B, and I don't have much in the way of concerns about his arm strength long term. Do I think he's going to be an elite defender? No, I don't. Do I think he'll be an above average defender? I most certainly do. The game plays faster at each level, so we'll see how things do especially once he has a full offseason getting past any potential arm inflammation. I do know he has an amazing support group that lives/breathes training, so I fully anticipate a stronger Holliday in 2025. 

[banks703]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

His arm strength is just fine. Especially at 2B. 

His grades for arm were 55.  And these were done at SS.

But arm strength can increase over time, especially since we are talking about a 20 year old who has been moved around the diamond. 

Again, please stop with the moving around the diamond mess. He’s played a handful of games at third. He’s played primarily second base for nearly a calendar year and was getting game reps there in 2022. It’s not new for him. Stop making that excuse. 

Secondly, whoever graded his arm strength at 55 should be fired. There’s a pretty lengthy write up on his lack of arm strength in my post history. He is bottom 5% of infielders in MLB. So while I agree that it isn’t as much of a concern at 2B it’s also not nothing and his arm strength certainly is not 55. He’s a 45 at best. 

Lastly, arm strength is actually NOT one of those things that will increase. Can it? Sure but ask Cedric how much he’s been able to add to his throws. Players may sometimes add velo but someone at almost 21 years old and as you mentioned, a lifer in baseball with the amazing support system that he has, with the amount of time in the game, is only going to add so much to his throws. His max velo throw is 83 mph. Half of the infielders in MLB average a higher velo than his max throw. That’s not nothing. Also, his lack of arm strength predates the elbow issues this year. So please don’t suggest that his weak arm is because of the elbow this year.

I’m over harping on the arm strength because again, at 2B it’s less of a concern until needing a double play on a faster runner. Don’t count on them ever turning two with him having to make that throw to first after coming across the bag with a runner barreling down on him and an above average runner at first.. unless it’s tailor-made.

The other issues may improve over time but I’m not deluding myself to believe that with as much as he’s experienced around the highest levels of baseball, that his ability to recognize the shape of a grounder off the bat, the in-between hops, the fluidity of feeding and receiving double play balls, moving to his hand side, his stiff hips, etc etc is just going to get better. It might but I am extremely skeptical because again, as you noted, he’s been around the game of baseball forever and had the best training and coaching available to him. 

We can’t mention his amazing support system and ignore it from the other side. He’s had access to the absolute best training and coaching his entire life and he struggles with some of these fundamental things. Do I think he will improve? Yes, I’ve stated as much in every post that I have made criticizing his defense but there is nothing about his defense that suggests that he will be even average, much less above average.  If the O’s are comfortable enough with what they get from him then so am I but I think still believe that a move to the outfield may be in his future and it might be best for both him and the club.

All to say, I am still penciling him in at 2B every game going forward until he forces otherwise. If he’s going to improve it’s going to come with game reps at the major league level. He hasn’t cost them a game with his defense. He’s not completely butchering it out there. He’s hitting and seems to have carved out a nice routine in his return to Baltimore. Keep running him out there as long as his bat is providing the positive impact that it has so far. 

Edited August 10 by banks703

[Gurgi]

His little power display is impressive.  This kid might be a 30 home run guy.  Imagine having Gunnar and Jackson each launching 30 bombs a year for the next four years?  That's a good up the middle.  It's going to be hard to be bad with that kind of power. 

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

Again, please stop with the moving around the diamond mess. He’s played a handful of games at third. He’s played primarily second base for nearly a calendar year and was getting game reps there in 2022. It’s not new for him. Stop making that excuse. 

Secondly, whoever graded his arm strength at 55 should be fired. There’s a pretty lengthy write up on his lack of arm strength in my post history. He is bottom 5% of infielders in MLB. So while I agree that it isn’t as much of a concern at 2B it’s also not nothing and his arm strength certainly is not 55. He’s a 45 at best. 

Lastly, arm strength is actually NOT one of those things that will increase. Can it? Sure but ask Cedric how much he’s been able to add to his throws. Players may sometimes add velo but someone at almost 21 years old and as you mentioned, a lifer in baseball with the amazing support system that he has, with the amount of time in the game, is only going to add so much to his throws. His max velo throw is 83 mph. Half of the infielders in MLB average a higher velo than his max throw. That’s not nothing. Also, his lack of arm strength predates the elbow issues this year. So please don’t suggest that his weak arm is because of the elbow this year.

I’m over harping on the arm strength because again, at 2B it’s less of a concern until needing a double play on a faster runner. Don’t count on them ever turning two with him having to make that throw to first after coming across the bag with a runner barreling down on him and an above average runner at first.. unless it’s tailor-made.

The other issues may improve over time but I’m not deluding myself to believe that with as much as he’s experienced around the highest levels of baseball, that his ability to recognize the shape of a grounder off the bat, the in-between hops, the fluidity of feeding and receiving double play balls, moving to his hand side, his stiff hips, etc etc is just going to get better. It might but I am extremely skeptical because again, as you noted, he’s been around the game of baseball forever and had the best training and coaching available to him. 

We can’t mention his amazing support system and ignore it from the other side. He’s had access to the absolute best training and coaching his entire life and he struggles with some of these fundamental things. Do I think he will improve? Yes, I’ve stated as much in every post that I have made criticizing his defense but there is nothing about his defense that suggests that he will be even average, much less above average.  If the O’s are comfortable enough with what they get from him then so am I but I think still believe that a move to the outfield may be in his future and it might be best for both him and the club.

All to say, I am still penciling him in at 2B every game going forward until he forces otherwise. If he’s going to improve it’s going to come with game reps at the major league level. He hasn’t cost them a game with his defense. He’s not completely butchering it out there. He’s hitting and seems to have carved out a nice routine in his return to Baltimore. Keep running him out there as long as his bat is providing the positive impact that it has so far. 

Do you know what Brian Roberts throw velocity was? Are those numbers anywhere?

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

He’s played primarily second base for nearly a calendar year and was getting game reps there in 2022. It’s not new for him. Stop making that excuse. 

By this, do you mean that he worked on 2B in the offseason? He’s never played “primarily second base” in competitive games until spring training this year.

[Say O!]

28 minutes ago, e16bball said:

By this, do you mean that he worked on 2B in the offseason? He’s never played “primarily second base” in competitive games until spring training this year.

Just for the record, Holliday played 5 games at 2B in 2022 (14 at SS) and 20 games at 2B in 2023 (96 at SS).

[banks703]

34 minutes ago, e16bball said:

By this, do you mean that he worked on 2B in the offseason? He’s never played “primarily second base” in competitive games until spring training this year.

Except he has.

He was promoted to Norfolk on September 5, 2023.

He’s played 29 games at SS since graduating to AAA, 0 in the majors.

He’s played 68 games at 2B since graduating to AAA, which includes the 21 games at the major league level this year.

In the last 11+ months the majority of his games have been at 2B. The last two weeks of the Norfolk season he essentially split time between 2B and SS.

 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

Do you know what Brian Roberts throw velocity was? Are those numbers anywhere?

I don’t think that was tracked during his playing time. BRob’s arm was better than Holliday’s arm is though. 

BRob was drafted as a SS and converted to 2B. A friend of mine played ball with him at North Carolina. He said BRob was a freak athlete in college and during my friend’s one and only season playing with him, he said that he knew that BRob was a major league ball player after just one practice together. He said everything that he did was head and shoulders better than anyone else at UNC that year. 

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, Gurgi said:

His little power display is impressive.  This kid might be a 30 home run guy.  Imagine having Gunnar and Jackson each launching 30 bombs a year for the next four years?  That's a good up the middle.  It's going to be hard to be bad with that kind of power. 

An interesting discussion might be… Is Holliday best suited for leadoff or MOO?

I like Cowser in the leadoff role. I think it gets him more fastballs. With Cowser‘s contact issues, the ability for him to narrow down on what the pitcher will throw can only help. 

Maybe, 

Cowser, Santa, Gunnar, Holliday, Adley, O’Hearn/Mounty

[CaptainRedbeard]

13 hours ago, banks703 said:

Again, please stop with the moving around the diamond mess. He’s played a handful of games at third. He’s played primarily second base for nearly a calendar year and was getting game reps there in 2022. It’s not new for him. Stop making that excuse. 

Secondly, whoever graded his arm strength at 55 should be fired. There’s a pretty lengthy write up on his lack of arm strength in my post history. He is bottom 5% of infielders in MLB. So while I agree that it isn’t as much of a concern at 2B it’s also not nothing and his arm strength certainly is not 55. He’s a 45 at best. 

Lastly, arm strength is actually NOT one of those things that will increase. Can it? Sure but ask Cedric how much he’s been able to add to his throws. Players may sometimes add velo but someone at almost 21 years old and as you mentioned, a lifer in baseball with the amazing support system that he has, with the amount of time in the game, is only going to add so much to his throws. His max velo throw is 83 mph. Half of the infielders in MLB average a higher velo than his max throw. That’s not nothing. Also, his lack of arm strength predates the elbow issues this year. So please don’t suggest that his weak arm is because of the elbow this year.

I’m over harping on the arm strength because again, at 2B it’s less of a concern until needing a double play on a faster runner. Don’t count on them ever turning two with him having to make that throw to first after coming across the bag with a runner barreling down on him and an above average runner at first.. unless it’s tailor-made.

The other issues may improve over time but I’m not deluding myself to believe that with as much as he’s experienced around the highest levels of baseball, that his ability to recognize the shape of a grounder off the bat, the in-between hops, the fluidity of feeding and receiving double play balls, moving to his hand side, his stiff hips, etc etc is just going to get better. It might but I am extremely skeptical because again, as you noted, he’s been around the game of baseball forever and had the best training and coaching available to him. 

We can’t mention his amazing support system and ignore it from the other side. He’s had access to the absolute best training and coaching his entire life and he struggles with some of these fundamental things. Do I think he will improve? Yes, I’ve stated as much in every post that I have made criticizing his defense but there is nothing about his defense that suggests that he will be even average, much less above average.  If the O’s are comfortable enough with what they get from him then so am I but I think still believe that a move to the outfield may be in his future and it might be best for both him and the club.

All to say, I am still penciling him in at 2B every game going forward until he forces otherwise. If he’s going to improve it’s going to come with game reps at the major league level. He hasn’t cost them a game with his defense. He’s not completely butchering it out there. He’s hitting and seems to have carved out a nice routine in his return to Baltimore. Keep running him out there as long as his bat is providing the positive impact that it has so far. 

We have Statcast data on Holliday’s arm now. Compared to other 2B, it’s not nearly as bad as you are saying. He is slightly below average for 2B but not even close to the bottom. He is 77.5mph, 2B average is 79.1.  He is #47 out of total 71 2B with at least 50 throws.

Mookie Betts is just above Holliday at 78 mph and #43. Below Holliday are, of notable names, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien, Gleyber Torres, Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies. 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

We have Statcast data on Holliday’s arm now. Compared to other 2B, it’s not nearly as bad as you are saying. He is slightly below average for 2B but not even close to the bottom. He is 77.5mph, 2B average is 79.1.  He is #47 out of total 71 2B with at least 50 throws.

Mookie Betts is just above Holliday at 78 mph and #43. Below Holliday are, of notable names, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien, Gleyber Torres, Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies. 

We had that data on his arm. He’s played 21 games. Let’s see where the averages are after 80, 162, etc. 

Betts is a RF who out of necessity was playing infield. Altuve has never been regarded for his defense. Bogaerts got moved off of SS to 2B because he’s a terrible defender. Albies is also a poor defender. This board loves attempting to justify things with small sample size while ignoring the other side of it