Jackson Holliday 2024

[Sports Guy]

The uneducated opinions of Holliday on here are the same exact thing we hear from JLC, twitter, call in shows, etc…

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The uneducated opinions of Holliday on here are the same exact thing we hear from JLC, twitter, call in shows, etc…

It's some of the same people.

[Fiver6565]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The uneducated opinions of Holliday on here are the same exact thing we hear from JLC, twitter, call in shows, etc…

I agree, there is a lack of patience to put it mildly. 
 

However, I’m curious as to your opinion why these top top prospects come up and struggle THIS much. I’m not saying they should be out here raking, but Mayo isn’t even hitting .100, and Holliday, other than that brief stretch, has looked like he’s never held a bat in his hands more often than not. Small sample size or no (although the sample for Holliday is more now), you’d think they do at least a little better than this. Like why can’t these guys hit .200 or OPS .600?  They aren’t really even close to even that. 
 

Same with Cowser first time he was up. Just absolutely lost at the plate. 

[Just Regular]

Obviously many of us have big hometown bias, and in that context I give 8 out of 10 on the "it gets through Buckner" scale.

Kid could still be the AL Player of the Week in week 26 or 27.    A lot to chew on macro scale if you put him on the bench, though certainly on the results it is not looking great.    I won't be shocked if something is too inflamed or tweaked if Elias calls that move.

Manny spoiled us with the "just field the ball and don't worry about anything else" commission when he broke in.   

Deactivating belated game thread mode now, and thankful for family movie time last night.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I agree, there is a lack of patience to put it mildly. 
 

However, I’m curious as to your opinion why these top top prospects come up and struggle THIS much. I’m not saying they should be out here raking, but Mayo isn’t even hitting .100, and Holliday, other than that brief stretch, has looked like he’s never held a bat in his hands more often than not. Small sample size or no (although the sample for Holliday is more now), you’d think they do at least a little better than this. Like why can’t these guys hit .200 or OPS .600?  They aren’t really even close to even that. 
 

Same with Cowser first time he was up. Just absolutely lost at the plate. 

I pointed out the other day that Chuorio had a bad first 200 at bats. That said, his OPS was 610ish. That’s not good but it’s still 60-70 points higher than Holliday.  Holliday is 20-25 at bats short of that number.

We know that it’s harder right now to transition from AAA to the majors than we have ever seen. 
 

Now, with that said, there is bad and then there is what we have seen with Holliday and Mayo. It’s fair to ask why and does the org prepare them well enough. We see these guys putting up big numbers, showing patience, high EV, etc…all signs you want to see. 
 

I see hitters constantly guessing. Why? It’s one thing to see it every once in a while but we are seeing it all the time, throughout the lineup. Is this something the data is saying?  Is the data telling them to look for pitch X?  Is the data faulty?  
 

I don’t know where it stands now but the Os were near the bottom of the league in terms of balls being called strikes when hitting. Everyone deals with this but when you are a team that is seemingly getting picked on (they aren’t, just feels that way) and you are constantly down in the count and you don’t know what a strike is, you wonder how much that is effecting them. 
 

I see young guys who are struggling to adjust to off speed stuff (to be expected) and expanding the zone too much. There is no cutting down on the swing. There isn’t enough using all fields. It’s all big swings for the fences. Why? Is that being taught?  

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I agree, there is a lack of patience to put it mildly. 
 

However, I’m curious as to your opinion why these top top prospects come up and struggle THIS much. I’m not saying they should be out here raking, but Mayo isn’t even hitting .100, and Holliday, other than that brief stretch, has looked like he’s never held a bat in his hands more often than not. Small sample size or no (although the sample for Holliday is more now), you’d think they do at least a little better than this. Like why can’t these guys hit .200 or OPS .600?  They aren’t really even close to even that. 
 

Same with Cowser first time he was up. Just absolutely lost at the plate. 

I think the Orioles preaching of strike zone management combined with them having the ABS system in the minors but not in the majors is a contributing factor.

[Tony-OH]

I know there are some that scoff at any concerns over Holliday, but what can't be argued with any sanity, is that Holliday's major league time this year and is anything but an unmitigated disaster so far. 

While he does not qualify, his statcast leaderboards shows him only to stand out on speed. Now the good news is his hard hit% and barrel percentage is above average, but his whiff% is so bad, he's basically missing or hitting ball fairly hard. That's what comes with the big upper cut swing he employs. His timing must be perfect because the bat is not in the hitting zone for that long.

How bad has Holliday been at the plate? Well, let's take away that 10-game span when he first game back when he hit 5 home runs. You know, when some posters around here were taking victory laps and virtually high fiving themselves on how smart they are and how Holliday should have never been sent to the minors anyways because he had nothing else to learn.

During that 10 game span, Holliday slashed .278/.350/.722/1.072 with 10 Ks and 3 BB in 40 PAs.

Outside of that initial hot streak upon return, Holliday has gone 19-for-128 (.148) with 7 BB and 50Ks, with 2 doubles and 2 triples and 0 home runs in 140 PAs in his big league time.

But heck, let's be fair and add in his ten game hot streak and let's compare Holliday's first 177 PAs with other notable young players who made their debuts at 20.

Obviously the ones that stands out is Jackson Chourio, the presumptive 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. Chourio had a similar start with the bat, and then went on to slash .310/.368/.541/.909 over his next 323 PAs. I don't have any way of looking back at Chourio's statcast numbers at that 176 PA mark, but his numbers now look much better than Holliday.

Cal had a similar slow start, but with much less whiff (In a much different era) but both Gunnar and Witt Jr. clearly had outclassed Holliday at the start of their careers.

So all is not lost. Holliday has talent and while he's struggled mightily through his initial trial through the majors, Chourio should give Orioles fans hope a turn around might not be that far away. 

 

[Sports Guy]

I have mentioned it before but let’s also remember that Holliday has been used to 2 off days a week. One scheduled and another rest day. That’s how he was handled in the minors.

Now it’s everyday. There is no protecting him vs tough lefties or anything like that. 

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I see hitters constantly guessing. Why? It’s one thing to see it every once in a while but we are seeing it all the time, throughout the lineup. Is this something the data is saying?  Is the data telling them to look for pitch X?  Is the data faulty?  hat being taught?  

I truly think the rest of the league knows how much the Orioles teach looking for certain pitches in situations, and they're pitching backwards to that. 

Now I have no basis for how much the Orioles do this any more or less than other teams, but watching this team take so many strikes on pitches they typically would not see in those counts, tells me they are sitting on pitches.

We've also seen it in the pitch calling with two strikes. Teams seem to have a lot of success against Orioles pitchers with two strikes which tells me they have a pretty good idea of what is coming. I'm sure someone like @Frobby can find the team stats on this, but it just appears it more than a coincidence that this team seems to give up a lot of two-strike hits. 

[Frobby]

That error last night was extraordinarily frustrating.   If you’re not hitting, at least make the routine plays with the glove.  

Can we go into 2025 assuming that Holliday is the starting 2B from day one?   To me, we have to be in a position where he’s competing for playing time, not having it handed to him.  He hasn’t earned a presumptive starting spot, despite plenty of opportunity.   He needs to work hard over the winter to improve all aspects of his game.  And then he needs to prove in the spring that he deserves a spot on the roster.   Hopefully he does that, but I’m assuming nothing at this point.  
 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I truly think the rest of the league knows how much the Orioles teach looking for certain pitches in situations, and they pitching backwards to that. 

Now I have no basis for how much the Orioles do this any more or less than other teams, but watching this team take so many strikes on pitches they typically would not see in those counts, tells me they are sitting on pitches.

We've also seen it in the pitch calling with two strikes. Teams seem to have a lot of success against Orioles pitchers with two strikes which tells me they have a pretty good idea of what is coming. I'm sure someone like @Frobby can find the team stats on this, but it just appears it more than a coincidence that this team seems to give up a lot of two-strike hits. 

Yea there is too much smoke here.  There has to be some questioning on the development side, on the analytics side, etc…

I saw they are letting Dave Schmidt go, who has been involved in pitching development for 25 years. Is that the first shoe to drop?  Are they seeing some chinks in the armor?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That error last night was extraordinarily frustrating.   If you’re not hitting, at least make the routine plays with the glove.  

Can we go into 2025 assuming that Holliday is the starting 2B from day one?   To me, we have to be in a position where he’s competing for playing time, not having it handed to him.  He hasn’t earned a presumptive starting spot, despite plenty of opportunity.   He needs to work hard over the winter to improve all aspects of his game.  And then he needs to prove in the spring that he deserves a spot on the roster.   Hopefully he does that, but I’m assuming nothing at this point.  
 

He has a 3 OAA.  He is 10000% the starting second baseman on day 1 next year…unless he’s hurt or traded.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That error last night was extraordinarily frustrating.   If you’re not hitting, at least make the routine plays with the glove.  

Can we go into 2025 assuming that Holliday is the starting 2B from day one?   To me, we have to be in a position where he’s competing for playing time, not having it handed to him.  He hasn’t earned a presumptive starting spot, despite plenty of opportunity.   He needs to work hard over the winter to improve all aspects of his game.  And then he needs to prove in the spring that he deserves a spot on the roster.   Hopefully he does that, but I’m assuming nothing at this point.  
 

With no injuries, we still have a presumptive depth chart for 2b/3b including Urias, Westburg, and Mateo, along with Holliday and Mayo. )Mayo could shift to 1B/DH, especially if they let O'Hearn go). I imagine a similar situation to our outfield this year where everyone plays 3-5 times per week in the most favorable situations until guys play themselves in or out of the lineup. 

No, I do not think Holliday should be handed a full time job. Ideally he will play himself into one. If he is not playing well enough to be in the lineup regularly then he should spend time in AAA.

[Otter]

While it's still way too early to judge a 20 year old rookie, as others have mentioned there are concerns with his swing and approach.  I think some of it is organizational, as it seems so many are swinging for the fences no matter the situation.  I understand the game is much different than it used to be, but there are still certain situations where I'd like to see hitters cut down on their swing and make contact (runner on 3rd less than two outs, 0-2 counts, etc.).  Yet Holliday is still trying to hit the ball 500 ft no matter the situation.

I also think he's been hurt (like other young players) by the discrepancy between the strike zones from AAA to the majors.  That has to be a hard adjustment as well.

That being said, I'd still like him to be playing full-time the rest of the year and then see who we have back and healthy for the playoffs.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm sure someone like @Frobby can find the team stats on this, but it just appears it more than a coincidence that this team seems to give up a lot of two-strike hits. 

Just rub the lamp, @Tony-OH!

League average with two strikes: .168/.244/.265 

Orioles hitters with two strikes: .174/.252/.301 (10th/11th/2nd in MLB; .552 OPS is 3rd).

Orioles pitchers with two strikes: .173/.247/.265 (21st/19th/13th best in MLB; .512 OPS is 16th best).

So, our hitters are a bit better than average at two-strike hitting, especially at slugging.  Our pitchers are a slightly worse than average at allowing hits but pretty decent at limiting power with two strikes, and overall about average.   

Now mind you, our hitters are above average in all situations combined (.250/.317/.438 vs. .244/.312/.400) and our pitchers are, too (.239/.304/.391 vs. .244/.312/.400).   Looks like the O’s overall hitting advantage compared to league average is about the same as their two-strike hitting advantage compared to league average, whereas the O’s pitchers’ overall numbers are better compared to league average than their two-strike numbers are.