Cedric Mullins 2024

[.500_OR_BETTER]

28 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Stowers can't play CF.  I guess Hays or Cowser could cover it for a fee days.  The O's don't even have an average MLB CF in upper minors/majors other than Mullins.  It's why McKenna gets chance after chance.  I think this might be one trade Elias has to make early.  Prepare to be underwhelmed.  Think slightly better McKenna.

Sorry yes, I meant let Cowser can play CF - you can have Stowers in LF.

This isn't rocket science; Hyde needs to bench some of these OF guys (Mullins and Santander).  We had Kjerstad just rotting away on the bench.  I am sure with consistent AB's he could hit .180 /.200.  The same goes for Stowers.  Even if the plan is just short term up her - LET THE KIDS PLAY.

[Just Regular]

Rates and Barrels podcast today had the observation his BABIP is near MLB-worst - Mullins, Arozarena and Lindor are the bottom 3 among qualified Bats.

It is supposed to be largely random, but Cedric's 5-year scan is...

.350, .322, .299, .271, .188

[dystopia]

11 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Rates and Barrels podcast today had the observation his BABIP is near MLB-worst - Mullins, Arozarena and Lindor are the bottom 3 among qualified Bats.

It is supposed to be largely random, but Cedric's 5-year scan is...

.350, .322, .299, .271, .188

Not going to have much of a BABIP when all you do is hit popups.

[AlbNYfan]

Before I begin, I have to say I have really enjoyed watching Mullins over the past few years. However, his body language when going to the plate now is really poor.

 Two thoughts:

1) Is it time for him to at least try switch hitting again. Could it possibly get worse? Just a different look for a bit.

2) I know D is important. But, how many above average, game changing plays does a CF'er (or any fielder) make per game? Yet, for the most part, every starter gets 4 AB's/game where he can make a difference. Is having a good D, no hit player a net gain? Or is a average D, hit player a net gain?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, AlbNYfan said:

I know D is important. But, how many above average, game changing plays does a CF'er (or any fielder) make per game? Yet, for the most part, every starter gets 4 AB's/game where he can make a difference. Is having a good D, no hit player a net gain? Or is an average D, hit player a net gain?

If you want to believe Statcast, in 41 games Mullins has had 14 catch opportunities that were non-routine.  So, one play every three games?   Instinctively that sounds about right to me.   

Anyway, the whole reason stats like WAR exist is to attempt to weigh offense and defense and balance their impact appropriately.  Mullins has been worth 0.3 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR.   So basically, better than replacement level but not good enough to be an average starter on a big league team.  

That’s for now.  Mullins has a track record and the O’s aren’t going to give up on him or relinquish his starting spot after 41 games.  It’s not like Mullins has been terrible all year, either.  He’s basically been in a really deep slump for a month, after hitting well (.859 OPS) for the first 18 games.   He will get every opportunity to dig himself out of it.   And no, he won’t start switch hitting again.  That ship has sailed.  

 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So basically, better than replacement level but not good enough to be an average starter on a big league team.  

So, basically a 4th outfielder

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

So, basically a 4th outfielder

The way he’s hitting through 41 games.  You either believe that’s what he’s going to do the rest of the year, and change his role, or you give him an opportunity to work his way out of it.  The Orioles will do the latter, for a considerable length of time.  

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

At this point, he could go on a 10 day heater and basically be back to his career averages.  

Not sure that is likely though.  But realistically, we don't have anyone competent enough to play CF every game in Hyde/Elias opinion.  

[Roy Firestone]

10 minutes ago, OriolesUpAndDowns said:

At this point, he could go on a 10 day heater and basically be back to his career averages.  

Not sure that is likely though.  But realistically, we don't have anyone competent enough to play CF every game in Hyde/Elias opinion.  

When so many starters are struggling offensively ,the Orioles may not have the luxury of letting him work his way out of a slump for " a considerable ;length of time"..the bottom of the order, especially Mullins...is killing us.

[deward]

12 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

When so many starters are struggling offensively ,the Orioles may not have the luxury of letting him work his way out of a slump for " a considerable ;length of time"..the bottom of the order, especially Mullins...is killing us.

The O's are 7-3 over their last 10 games. I'm not sure anything is killing them.

[Spy Fox]

3 hours ago, dystopia said:

Not going to have much of a BABIP when all you do is hit popups.

It's a good one liner. Except, Cedric is apparently hitting less popups than his career average (13.6% vs 14.6% infield fly balls).

There are some problems with his contact quality right now to be sure, but a .188 BABIP is egregious so I do find that note encouraging. 

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

It's a good one liner. Except, Cedric is apparently hitting less popups than his career average (13.6% vs 14.6% infield fly balls).

There are some problems with his contact quality right now to be sure, but a .188 BABIP is egregious so I do find that note encouraging. 

Just going by the eye test, I haven’t seen him get “unlucky” on hardly anything he’s put in play, let’s put it that way. He’s been horrid. 

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

It's a good one liner. Except, Cedric is apparently hitting less popups than his career average (13.6% vs 14.6% infield fly balls).

There are some problems with his contact quality right now to be sure, but a .188 BABIP is egregious so I do find that note encouraging. 

Fortunately, we now have xBA, which eliminates having to guess in babip is due to bad luck.

His xBA is .199

[Moose Milligan]

It's like the ghost of Chris Davis found him and has taken over his body.  

I know bat speed isn't everything, but with the bat speed info that dropped, I took a look.  His average is 70.9 which isn't terribly slow, it's actually pretty average.  

For whatever reason, he just can't square anything up.  I hope he fixes it but it's really tough to watch right now.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's like the ghost of Chris Davis found him and has taken over his body.  

I know bat speed isn't everything, but with the bat speed info that dropped, I took a look.  His average is 70.9 which isn't terribly slow, it's actually pretty average.  

For whatever reason, he just can't square anything up.  I hope he fixes it but it's really tough to watch right now.

He’s under the ball, and pulling everything.  It’s either strikeouts, pop outs, or grounders to the right side.  I agree it’s very tough to watch.  I still say he he’ll get at least another 4-6 weeks to snap out of it before the O’s make any significant change to his role.