Tavian Josenberger 2024

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

ISO by month: .068, 133, .244, .300.   He was injured for part of June and July is less than half over, so those last two numbers are in limited at bats, but there seems to be something going on with this kid.  It does seem that they see him more as a 2B than as a CF.  Maybe a utility guy?

Fangraphs’ recent comments:

defensive versatility has become Josenberger’s calling card, as he’s looked more than capable of handling all three outfield spots as well as the keystone position in the professional ranks. His above-average speed and efficient routes allow him to cover both gaps in the grass, while his hands and lateral range project to be solid-average at second base. 

Josenberger is a switch-hitter who does a good job of not expanding his zone, but neither his left- nor right-handed swing produces authoritative contact despite his sweet looking ability to rotate through contact. He is putting the ball in play a ton and has a swinging strike rate below 7% so far this year, but the look of Josenberger’s barrel feel is not quite that strong. He looks to be headed for a defense-driven bench utility role.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects-2024/

He bears watching.

 

So do we think the hot streak is post injury?  Maybe he was banged up before. What was the injury?  Google says he had a pretty bad strained hamstring that bothered him last year. That can take a bit. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So do we think the hot streak is post injury?  Maybe he was banged up before. What was the injury?  Google says he had a pretty bad strained hamstring that bothered him last year. That can take a bit. 

The injury kept him out from June 18-29, so his June numbers were almost all pre-injury.  He did hit one of his two June homers on June 30 after returning.  
 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

ISO by month: .068, 133, .244, .300.   He was injured for part of June and July is less than half over, so those last two numbers are in limited at bats, but there seems to be something going on with this kid.  It does seem that they see him more as a 2B than as a CF.  Maybe a utility guy?

Fangraphs’ recent comments:

defensive versatility has become Josenberger’s calling card, as he’s looked more than capable of handling all three outfield spots as well as the keystone position in the professional ranks. His above-average speed and efficient routes allow him to cover both gaps in the grass, while his hands and lateral range project to be solid-average at second base. 

Josenberger is a switch-hitter who does a good job of not expanding his zone, but neither his left- nor right-handed swing produces authoritative contact despite his sweet looking ability to rotate through contact. He is putting the ball in play a ton and has a swinging strike rate below 7% so far this year, but the look of Josenberger’s barrel feel is not quite that strong. He looks to be headed for a defense-driven bench utility role.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects-2024/

He bears watching.

 

That's a good take on him. Pretty much on par from what I've seen lately. He got stronger coming into this year and showed more pull side power than in his pro debut last year where he looked like he was just trying to keep his head above water. 

He's becoming more interesting as utility guyish/4th outfielder type, but even though he's a switch hitter, he hasn't shown the ability to hit left-handers yet so that could limit his usefulness to a team like the Orioles that will most likely be left-handed hitting heavy in the outfield. 

[sportsfan8703]

OPS up to .718

OPS vs RHP .754

OPS in July .874

It would be interesting to see if he plays more CF once he’s not on the same team as EBJ. As a 3rd rd pick last year, maybe he’s starting to push his way into our top 40?  Even with the new draftees. He probably needs to keep showing out. 

[sportsfan8703]

I noticed Josenberger played a game in CF with EBJ in LF.  If EBJ gets promoted, and Josenberger plays more CF, how much does that add to his value?

We lost a lot at the trade deadline.  Josenberger is a name that can step up and replace that tier of bats.  Hopefully.

His OPS is still over .700+ too.  

[LookinUp]

I always remember Xavier Avery. Uber athlete who got hot for a while. People got excited. He fizzled.

Different player and different organization, but I'll be looking to see what he's accomplished in the next 12 months before getting too excited. He's in the middle of his player development plan. Would love to see him sustain success.

[sportsfan8703]

8th homer and 43rd steal. .729 OPS.

After Basallo, EBJ, and Honeycutt, he’s right there as to who is our 4th best hitting prospect. I’d prefer it be one of the higher ceiling foreign players, or a recent draftee, but it is what it is right now. 

It would be nice to not have him and EBJ on the same field so they could both play CF. 

It’s not totally deserved but Fabian to AAA CF, EBJ to AA CF, and Josenberger to A+ CF, makes sense. Heck, you could promoted Josenberger over EBJ. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

8th homer and 43rd steal. .729 OPS.

After Basallo, EBJ, and Honeycutt, he’s right there as to who is our 4th best hitting prospect. I’d prefer it be one of the higher ceiling foreign players, or a recent draftee, but it is what it is right now. 

It is always hard to know where to rank the FCL/DSL guys, but a number of them are excelling at very young ages and I might put them over a guy like Josenberger.  I’m also very partial to Aron Estrada, who at 19 was just promoted to Aberdeen after hitting .296/.361/.434 at Delmarva this year.  

Let’s remember too that Beavers (.824) and Fabian (.840) hit much better at Aberdeen last year than Josenberger is hitting now.   I wouldn’t put Josenberger over them just because they’ve been mildly disappointing at Bowie this year.  

Edited August 7 by Frobby

[glenn__davis]

What's the MiLB run environment like this year compared to last year?  Frankly I like at our rosters and other teams' rosters and I feel like numbers in general are down offensively but I don't know how to find that data.

[sportsfan8703]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is always hard to know where to rank the FCL/DSL guys, but a number of them are excelling at very young ages and I might put them over a guy like Josenberger.  I’m also very partial to Aron Estrada, who at 19 was just promoted to Aberdeen after hitting .296/.361/.434 at Delmarva this year.  

Let’s remember too that Beavers (.824) and Fabian (.840) hit much better at Aberdeen last year than Josenberger is hitting now.   I wouldn’t put Josenberger over them just because they’ve been mildly disappointing at Bowie this year.  

Yeah, definitely taking in the past success of Beavers/Fabian, along with the ceilings of the young guys in Delmarva.  I like Estrada, but if he's a 2B, and Josenberger is a CF, then that factors into the calculus.  Josenberger may just be a LF/2B type himself.

Realistically, out of Basallo/Honeycutt/EBJ, all our other position prospects in Aberdeen+ are trade chips, or role player replacements for Urias/Mateo.  

[Tony-OH]

Josenberger has been doing very well of late, but I need to see him in AA before getting too "excited" about him. We've seen guys find AA as a stumbling block offensively so hopefully he and EBJ will get some AA PAs this year and see how they look.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

What's the MiLB run environment like this year compared to last year? 

2024 vs. 2023:

International: 5.21 vs. 5.50 

Eastern: 4.41 vs. 4.66

Sally: 4.75 vs. 4.90

Carolina: 4.45 vs. 4.68

FCL: 4.90 vs. 5.64

DSL: 5.22 vs. 5.45

So, offense is down across the board (and also in the majors).   

In OPS terms, the Sally League has a .699 OPS this year vs. .721 last year.  Even accounting for that, Beavers and Fabian hit much better in Aberdeen than Josenberger has.  
 

 

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Josenberger has a very low BABIP (.255) for a guy with speed at the lower levels. EBJ had that earlier this year before more hits started falling in and it corrected to more of what would be expected (.321).

Josenberger is likely hitting more fly balls than EBJ, but I’d still expect higher BABIP than he has. He has the same K rate as EBJ but much higher BB rate and ISO, so his numbers would start looking really good with a higher BABIP. 

[733baseball]

There's no metric for it, but he's a little unlucky. Lots of fly balls and line drives hit right at the right fielder. 

[sportsfan8703]

I just have my own admittedly skewed perceptions of Aberdeen because of the way Cowser struggled there. Even the whole top prospect group to a certain degree except for Gunnar.
 

I think OPS is inflated in Norfolk and “deflated” in Bowie and Aberdeen. Also, Slugging makes up half of OPS so it penalizes non HR hitters. Like, even a guy like Bencosme in AA with a .650 OPS isn’t dead. And he’s only 21. The .700-.725 OPS don’t bother me when weighing the factors. Of course, I wish those were .800. Niko Goodrum and Nick Maton have .800+ OPS in Norfolk if you’re into that number. Haha.

We literally picked up a AAA OF of the streets last year around this time, stuck in Norfolk, and he had an .800 OPS last year. 

Edited August 9 by sportsfan8703