This offensive style is not sustainable

[Sports Guy]

Mullins should be sent down or if he’s hurt and trying to play through it, he should be on the IL.

Santander, who hasn’t been good most of the year, is 1-11 since banging his knee. Putting him in the field yesterday may give us a thought they think he’s improving.  Let’s see how he feels today.

Putting him on the IL and being able to send him on a short rehab may be a good thing.

Hays is what he is right now.  He was looking good as soon as he got back but that seems to have been short lived.

Right now, the team isn’t treating him like the superstar Pickles thinks he is, so that’s good. 

With Mayo out and Holliday still working on things, that leaves Kjerstad and Norby. I know the adjustment period is rough for this minor leaguers right now and June is going to be a b!tch of a schedule but I would like to see at least HK back up and I want to see Stowers playing more often. Things can’t really get any worse, so let’s use these guys.

Shame Mayo got hurt…maybe he would be up.

Edited May 23 by Sports Guy

[Too Tall]

Great/informative read. I use to say, "For ten cents and a cup of coffee, I could find 100 people to tell me what is wrong." Hard part is finding someone to tell you how to fix it. Do we just have patience and hope it fixes itself or do we hope the Orioles make major changes now? Earlier post stated emphatically we WOULD make the playoffs. Can I still count on that? This offensive funk has been going on a while now let alone a bullpen problem. Talk me off the ledge. 

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Our OF, Urias roster spot, McCann roster spot, gives us zippy. That’s 6/13 position players. 

Yep. The roster is kind of a hot mess right now. It's very awkwardly put together and when our veterans aren't performing, it really shows the flaws of the rest of the roster. 

There's just an awkward vibe about how they are going about things this year, despite the overall good record. It's tough to put a finger on. The offensive approach has taken a pretty wild step back. I can't imagine they are preaching anything different than last year, especially when it's not working. It's up to the players, ultimately. If I'm Hyde I would be having a closed door meeting and having some frank discussions. If nothing else just to try and shake them up mentally. 

Losing to Lynn and Gibson is basically unacceptable with the offensive potential this team has. 

[LGOrioles]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Could be right and yet, his OPS+, OPS, WRC+, home runs, RBI, etc., are on pace or better than his career averages.   So, up to this point he is a good enough hitter not to walk as much.  

On the contrary, his xwOBA is in a lower percentile than it was in either 2022 or 2023 (73rd percentile compared to 93rd last year and 79th in 2022) and his xISO is only slightly up (68th percentile compared to 56th and 61st the last 2 years).

It’s still early, but his expected stats show that his contact quality is only slightly up while his walk rate dropped from 15th among 134 qualifiers last year to 147th among 159 qualifiers this year. That trade off is not worth it IMO - he was a much better hitter last year under the hood than he has been this year. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Great/informative read. I use to say, "For ten cents and a cup of coffee, I could find 100 people to tell me what is wrong." Hard part is finding someone to tell you how to fix it. Do we just have patience and hope it fixes itself or do we hope the Orioles make major changes now? Earlier post stated emphatically we WOULD make the playoffs. Can I still count on that? This offensive funk has been going on a while now let alone a bullpen problem. Talk me off the ledge. 

Yes, they are still making the playoffs.

But this offense is a real concern in terms of advancing.  They need to get this figured out.

[Frobby]

2023 walk rates vs. 2024:

Rutschman 13.4/5.0

Henderson 9.0/9.5

Santander 8.4/7.1

Hays 6.7/7.4

Mullins 9.5/5.8

Mountcastle 7.9/5.7

O’Hearn 4.1/10.1

Westburg 7.0/6.6

Urias 6.8/3.2

Mateo 6.3/4.2

McCann 4.0/0.0

That’s 8 of 11 mainstay holdover players whose walk rate has dropped.  Adley’s drop off is downright crazy, though it must be said, his overall offensive performance is right at his career norms.   Of the other 7, 5 (Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle, Urias, McCann) have seen overall drop offs this season.

I have to think that there’s been some overall directive to be more aggressive this year.  That worked for a month; now it’s not working.  Either the league has adjusted to what the Orioles are doing, or it’s just a slump.  Or, maybe we’ve been facing better pitching this month.  I think there’s some truth to that last one, but I doubt it’s the only reason the offense has struggled of late.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

2023 walk rates vs. 2024:

Rutschman 13.4/5.0

Henderson 9.0/9.5

Santander 8.4/7.1

Hays 6.7/7.4

Mullins 9.5/5.8

Mountcastle 7.9/5.7

O’Hearn 4.1/10.1

Westburg 7.0/6.6

Urias 6.8/3.2

Mateo 6.3/4.2

McCann 4.0/0.0

That’s 8 of 11 mainstay holdover players whose walk rate has dropped.  Adley’s drop off is downright crazy, though it must be said, his overall offensive performance is right at his career norms.   Of the other 7, 5 (Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle, Urias, McCann) have seen overall drop offs this season.

I have to think that there’s been some overall directive to be more aggressive this year.  That worked for a month; now it’s not working.  Either the league has adjusted to what the Orioles are doing, or it’s just a slump.  Or, maybe we’ve been facing better pitching this month.  I think there’s some truth to that last one, but I doubt it’s the only reason the offense has struggled of late.

 

 

 

 

 

Adley may have better or as good numbers now but if the chase rate remains high and he’s not walking, that won’t last for long. He’s just not a good enough hitter to sustain that over a full season.

[Aglets]

Regulars whose OBP have dropped significantly since last year:

Adley

Santander

Mullins

Mountcastle

McCann*  (not really a regular per se)

Hays

Urias

 

Gunnar, O'Hearn, Westburg, Mateo, and Cowser have improved.  So props to them!   woot for positivity!

Edited May 23 by Aglets

[sportsfan8703]

With Mayo’s injury, and wanting to leave Holliday down for a bit, they’re ain’t no help coming from the minors. Maybe Kjerstad again??? Norby for Urias?

The vets need to work it out. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley may have better or as good numbers now but if the chase rate remains high and he’s not walking, that won’t last for long. He’s just not a good enough hitter to sustain that over a full season.

After I posted, I saw @LGOrioles’s post about Adley’s xwOBA being lower than last year’s.   So, fair point.  Adley’s last 4 games have been rough, 1 for 16 with one walk, the one hit being that soft liner that was trapped on the second play of the series finale.  He’s been red hot up until this recent 4 game stretch.  

[Roy Firestone]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley may have better or as good numbers now but if the chase rate remains high and he’s not walking, that won’t last for long. He’s just not a good enough hitter to sustain that over a full season.

Is it me, or does ti appear that Adley drops to his knee on almost every big swing and is off balance even when he connects with a ball? I don't remember this pronounced "drop to a knee" swing in almost every single at bat. That cant be a good thing for a hitter or even if it is not a concern, Adley gets out of the box slower because he's off balance.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Mayo’s injury, and wanting to leave Holliday down for a bit, they’re ain’t no help coming from the minors. Maybe Kjerstad again??? Norby for Urias?

The vets need to work it out. 

It’s really hard to watch veterans struggle, but I still think the O’s are a month away from doing anything more significant than they’ve done already to adjust playing time, etc.   Hopefully some of the vets wake up before then.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Is it me, or does ti appear that Adley drops to his knee on almost every big swing and is off balance even when he connects with a ball? I don't remember this pronounced "drop to a knee" swing in almost every single at bat. That cant be a good thing for a hitter or even if it is not a concern, Adley gets out of the box slower because he's off balance.

I have noticed that too. He has definitely done in the past. Not sure if it just seems like it’s happening more often or if it truly is.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roy Firestone said:

Is it me, or does ti appear that Adley drops to his knee on almost every big swing and is off balance even when he connects with a ball? I don't remember this pronounced "drop to a knee" swing in almost every single at bat. That cant be a good thing for a hitter or even if it is not a concern, Adley gets out of the box slower because he's off balance.

It’s partially you, because I certainly don’t see him doing that in almost every single at bat.  But I do see him doing it with some frequency, more so than in prior years.  I think he’s trying (with some success) to increase the launch angle on his swing, and that’s what’s causing the drop to one knee thing as he tries to get a little more under the ball.  His average launch angle has gone from 12.6 to 18.0, and he’s also pulling the ball more (42.5% to 38.4% last year) and hitting to the opposite field far less (20.3% to 28.3% last year).   I don’t think any of that is an accident.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Perhaps the most confusing thing to me is how often McCann is playing.  It just makes no sense and with June being what it is, that doesn’t figure to improve either. 
 

 

Seems that the Orioles have seen more left-handed pitchers this year and they also have seen that Adley traditionally has hit much better when DHing vs catching. Saying that, McCann has been absolute zero this year and looks like a guy who is in his last year of major league baseball. I'm sure McCann is a good clubhouse guy, but he's not a guy you want to run out there as much as they have been, and I think it's more out of necessity at this point. 

Maybe Hyde/Sigbot will let Stowers actually start against a lefty and that would allow Rutschman to C more against lefties?