The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Warehouse]

 

[sportsfan8703]

27 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

 

BA didn’t have Snelling ranked?  He was ranked #44 at mlb pipeline. He went in the Scott deal. 

We traded Norby, and Stowers, who at times were ranked in the top 100. Also, I believe Seth Johnson cracked a top 100 list or two in his day. 

[Warehouse]

Fangraphs top 100 prospects traded:

72 - Agustin Ramirez (NYY to MIA)

73 - Thayron Liranzo (LAD to DET)

88 - Dylan Lesko (SDP to TBR)

92 - Jake Bloss (HOU to TOR)

 

Fangraphs 45+ FVs traded:

George Klassen (PHI to LAA)

Jared Serna (NYY to MIA)

Dillon Head (SDP to MIA in Luis Arraez trade)

Brody Hopkins (SEA to TBR)

 

Orioles Fangraphs prospect rankings for context:

1 - Holliday

4 - Basallo

12 - Mayo

15 - Kjerstad

84 - McDermott

93 - Povich

45+ - Bradfield

 

[Warehouse]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

BA didn’t have Snelling ranked?  He was ranked #44 at mlb pipeline. He went in the Scott deal. 

We traded Norby, and Stowers, who at times were ranked in the top 100. Also, I believe Seth Johnson cracked a top 100 list or two in his day. 

Snelling’s stock has dropped this year. Pipeline doesn’t really update its list except for graduations and trades.  BA and Fangraphs more actively update, but I believe the reassessments are less deep/comprehensive than their preseason lists.  Keep in mind that clubs can go deeper with a full team of area scouts, cross-checkers, and analytics experts, so their proprietary lists likely better reflect risers/fallers.

[webbrick2010]

13 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Who did you want him to trade for?  You do know that Skubal and Crochet weren’t traded. It’s hard to trade for players that weren’t really available. Is anyone upset that he didn’t outbid the Padres for Tanner Scott?

Name a deal that took place that you think Elias should’ve made?  Can’t say trade for players that weren’t traded, because nobody else was able to trade for them either. 

Should have traded for Chisolm, which would have kept him from the Yankees

He has already won two games for the Yankees, could have plugged our big hole at leadoff and CF

[webbrick2010]

12 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Things Elias did this deadline,

- Kept the big 3

- Got two SP

- Got two RP

- Got a LH SP

- Enters next season with a rotation of Grayson, Eflin, Rogers, Kremer, Suarez with Povich/McDermort as depth. 

- Eloy is a replacement option for Santa in 25’. 

- Slater is a direct replacement for Hays

- Soto was a two time all star closer

- Got SS depth for AAA

- Pache is a RH CF to Platoon with Mullins/Cowser

- if Burnes and/or Santa leave we get 1st rd comp picks.

He got us a bullpen. Role players for the postseason. Starters. Oh and everyone acquired we can bring back next year other than Slater. 

Elias deserves a can of coke. 

LOL,

Eloy and Slater are not replacements for anyone

Santander will get MVP votes, Hays is a 2023 allstar

Eloy and Slater are a couple bad months away from being released

[calsmanystances]

From a Jayson Stark article on the deadline activity:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5673477/2024/08/01/what-we-learned-from-this-mlb-trade-deadline-and-the-execs-who-drove-the-market/

So was the big news here the swap of Austin Hays for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache? Or was the big news actually: the two best teams in baseball made a trade?

It’s my duty to tell you exactly how unusual this sort of thing is. So I asked my friends from STATS for some help. Again, they looked only at the wild-card era. And in all that time — three decades — there had been only one other trade, this late in any season, between the clubs with the best record in baseball at the time:

Except that one other deal — Joey Gallo for Clayton Beeter (Dodgers-Yankees) at the 2022 deadline — was a minor Yankees dump Joey Gallo for whatever kind of trade. This time, it was two buyers who wound up buying from each other. So we’re officially decreeing this to be uncharted territory. And Dombrowski and the Orioles’ Mike Elias were exactly the right guys to pull this off.

“Dave is just so in tune with his vision, and what he wants,” one NL exec said. “And he’s so in tune with what his manager thinks, and what his scouts think, and what his analytics guys think. And he’s just trying to piece his puzzle together within a four- or five-day window. Mike Elias is that way, too. And I think this is proof that you have to be that way.”

The Orioles were that team everyone on the outside thought should “go for it.” But is that what they did? They traded for eight players. But “go for it” doesn’t describe what this was.

Trading for Crochet or Tarik Skubal? That would have been “going for it.” But Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Eloy Jiménez, Austin Slater, Livan Soto and Cristian Pache? That’s about pitching depth and roster depth, plus some emergency pothole repairs for Domínguez, Soto and Rogers. It doesn’t make the Orioles the favorites to ride the parade floats. But it provided lots to chew on.

“My take was, this was different than how they’ve operated in the past,” an NL exec said. “I felt like they were really conservative last year, when they probably shouldn’t have been. But this year, it seemed like they were a lot less conservative. So relative to last year, it felt like they were being more decisive…. They didn’t really go for it and acquire the best talent on the market. They were just more willing to make moves than they’ve been in the past.”

[sportsfan8703]

On 7/31/2024 at 8:01 AM, webbrick2010 said:

LOL,

Eloy and Slater are not replacements for anyone

Santander will get MVP votes, Hays is a 2023 allstar

Eloy and Slater are a couple bad months away from being released

Typical criticize wording.  Ok ok not "replacement" "fill ins".  Sorry that Elias didn't trade for players that weren't even traded to fulfill your needs.  

[elextrano8]

Quote

In terms of wins added, ZiPS sees the Orioles and Dodgers as the big winners, though you see the change more in their championship probability rather than the playoff numbers, given that both teams were already overwhelmingly likely to make the postseason. ZiPS was really worried about the back of Baltimore’s rotation come playoff time, and as a result, adding Zach Eflin was a big Eflin deal, so much so that the O’s got a larger World Series boost than any other team at the deadline, and they did it without trading away any of their best talent. Also helpful was the trade with the Phillies; while Austin Hays has value, he didn’t have much value to the Orioles given their roster, making Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache, for all intents and purposes, free additions. ZiPS also still likes Trevor Rogers, as it doesn’t take my constant disappointment that he’s not a triplet with Taylor and Tyler into account.

Thought this was interesting, ZiPs seems to like our trades the most. Or at least the effect of the trades.

Edit: Whoops, here's the link!

Edited August 1 by elextrano8

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 hours ago, calsmanystances said:

From a Jayson Stark article on the deadline activity:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5673477/2024/08/01/what-we-learned-from-this-mlb-trade-deadline-and-the-execs-who-drove-the-market/

So was the big news here the swap of Austin Hays for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache? Or was the big news actually: the two best teams in baseball made a trade?

It’s my duty to tell you exactly how unusual this sort of thing is. So I asked my friends from STATS for some help. Again, they looked only at the wild-card era. And in all that time — three decades — there had been only one other trade, this late in any season, between the clubs with the best record in baseball at the time:

Except that one other deal — Joey Gallo for Clayton Beeter (Dodgers-Yankees) at the 2022 deadline — was a minor Yankees dump Joey Gallo for whatever kind of trade. This time, it was two buyers who wound up buying from each other. So we’re officially decreeing this to be uncharted territory. And Dombrowski and the Orioles’ Mike Elias were exactly the right guys to pull this off.

“Dave is just so in tune with his vision, and what he wants,” one NL exec said. “And he’s so in tune with what his manager thinks, and what his scouts think, and what his analytics guys think. And he’s just trying to piece his puzzle together within a four- or five-day window. Mike Elias is that way, too. And I think this is proof that you have to be that way.”

The Orioles were that team everyone on the outside thought should “go for it.” But is that what they did? They traded for eight players. But “go for it” doesn’t describe what this was.

Trading for Crochet or Tarik Skubal? That would have been “going for it.” But Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Eloy Jiménez, Austin Slater, Livan Soto and Cristian Pache? That’s about pitching depth and roster depth, plus some emergency pothole repairs for Domínguez, Soto and Rogers. It doesn’t make the Orioles the favorites to ride the parade floats. But it provided lots to chew on.

“My take was, this was different than how they’ve operated in the past,” an NL exec said. “I felt like they were really conservative last year, when they probably shouldn’t have been. But this year, it seemed like they were a lot less conservative. So relative to last year, it felt like they were being more decisive…. They didn’t really go for it and acquire the best talent on the market. They were just more willing to make moves than they’ve been in the past.”

I agree with this.  I said it yesterday.  Why trade valuable pieces for guys that won't be in the team next year, or perhaps even next month?

They should have save ALL of their farm system trade pieces for ELITE PITCHING.  Or don't make a trade.  Period. 

Other than the trade for Eflin and maybe Ser Anthony, all they did was throw some puzzle pieces into a scrum and pick out some other puzzle pieces.

I thought their overall draft trades were at a C+.....at best. 

For a team trying to win now?  None of it made any real sense.

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Typical criticize wording.  Ok ok not "replacement" "fill ins".  Sorry that Elias didn't trade for players that weren't even traded to fulfill your needs.  

Again, are the new guys we get any better than the guys we traded?  I mean other than Eflin and SA I don't see it, and it weakened our overall young depth. 

 

Elias seemed like he felt he needed to make as many trades as possible to cover up for the fact that be really brought no one of significance in. 

Quantity over quality in his case. 

[Yardball85]

On 7/30/2024 at 6:26 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Soto at the cost of Johnson > Scott at what the Padres paid

10000% correct.

And this article agrees with you!

https://birdswatcher.com/posts/orioles-avoid-potential-disaster-pass-on-overpriced-closer-at-trade-deadline-01j44f9k3wbt

 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/26/2024 at 11:01 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I had actually thought about this recently and came to the conclusion that this would actually be kind of smart and awesome. We kind of need a second CF to play LF at OPACY, so split his time between LF and DH. LF at home, DH on the road. That would protect his health and keep him fresh, while also maximizing him when he is on the field.

The issue is, of course, everything else. The Angels would have to eat a bunch of money for us to take on his remaining contract years, and they would absolutely have to get a flagship prospect back to save face in trading away a franchise icon while ALSO eating money on his deal. It clearly wouldn't be Holliday, and I think Basallo is too important to us to trade until Adley is extended, if that ever happens, so it would have to be Mayo, whose right-handed bat in future Orioles lineups would effectively be replaced by Trout's. 

Could you live with Mayo+ for Trout and Estevez, plus like $10-15 million per year to get a future HOF who has shown no signs of slowing down as a hitter when healthy? I could.

Thought I would reply to this thread about trading for Trout (after searching for it).  i saw a stat on ESPN that Trout has only played in 85 games once since 2020.  I just saw the news that he was out for the year with another meniscus tear.  At some point, the Angels will smarten up and probably try to trade him.  I hope the O's aren't interested.  This is not the same Trout that won 3 MVPs and maybe should have won 2 more.

[sportsfan8703]

We always have these threads where everyone talks about deals and who we wouldn’t trade. Who really cares right now that we still have DeLeon, Fabian, and Beavers, in our system?  I think I’d rather have another MLB SP. 

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We always have these threads where everyone talks about deals and who we wouldn’t trade. Who really cares right now that we still have DeLeon, Fabian, and Beavers, in our system?  I think I’d rather have another MLB SP. 

I'd rather have Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers on the roster in place of Eloy, Slater, Emanual Rivera, and Livian Soto

Elias made the Orioles significantly weaker at the deadline for the second year in a row.

#1 priority for Rubenstein should be to replace Elias.