The 2024 Trade Deadline

[RZNJ]

Just now, emmett16 said:

Didn’t he get stabbed outside a strip joint? 

Apparently so.  

[RarityFlaherty]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I guess that would be fine. But what is the plan to fix the pen along with that? Because unless they are throwing 9 inning games, that won't be enough given the shaky nature of the pen. 

The rotation would be Burnes, Skubal, Rodriguez, Bradish with one of Kremer, Suarez, and Irvin as the 5th starter and the other two get pushed to the bullpen. Having two starters in the bullpen would give them the ability to eat a lot of innings. I’d like a backend bullpen option too, but one of the starters in the bullpen could possibly provide that for the playoffs. 

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, RarityFlaherty said:

What does everyone think would be the price for Tarik Skubal if the Tigers are out of it at the deadline? I saw this article suggesting Holliday or Holliday + Povich/Bradfield. 

https://birdswatcher.com/posts/this-jackson-holliday-trade-would-be-orioles-smartest-deadline-move-tarik-skubal-tigers-01hykb1sw3ds

Ideally we don’t trade Holliday. What about Kjerstad, Norby, plus either Povich or Mcdermott for Skubal? Maybe not enough, but it would be nice for Norby to look good enough in the majors to raise his value for a trade like this to work. Skubal and Burnes would make a nasty 1-2 combo in the playoffs this year and Skubal has 2 more years of control after this year. 

 

Detroit is 30-30 and 9-3 in games where Skubal starts.

It will take a king's ransom to acquire him, either a headliner of one of our top 3 prospects that would be the face of their franchise, our so much quantity that our system would be bled dry.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

The rotation would be Burnes, Skubal, Rodriguez, Bradish with one of Kremer, Suarez, and Irvin as the 5th starter and the other two get pushed to the bullpen. Having two starters in the bullpen would give them the ability to eat a lot of innings. I’d like a backend bullpen option too, but one of the starters in the bullpen could possibly provide that for the playoffs. 

Bradish is by no means a #4 pitcher. 

But overall, I agree that would be an awesome rotation. However, I think it is VERY risky to count on that proposition of using Kremer, Suarez, and Irvin as multi-inning bullpen guys. NONE of them really have any kind of history in doing that. AND even if they proved effective, that still leaves the backend of the bullpen as a hole. 

I would hate to walk into October asking a bunch of guys to do things that they have never done before in order for our team to be successful. 

IMO Skubal while awesome would be much more of a luxury addition than a necessity and given the hole in the roster at the back end of the bullpen, he doesn't solve that.

This would like be investing in marble floors and an olympic-sized infinity swimming pool in your back yard, when you have a hole in the roof. Seems to me that wisdom suggest that you fix what's wrong FIRST before you start trying to improve on what's already right.

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, RarityFlaherty said:

What does everyone think would be the price for Tarik Skubal if the Tigers are out of it at the deadline? I saw this article suggesting Holliday or Holliday + Povich/Bradfield. 

https://birdswatcher.com/posts/this-jackson-holliday-trade-would-be-orioles-smartest-deadline-move-tarik-skubal-tigers-01hykb1sw3ds

Ideally we don’t trade Holliday. What about Kjerstad, Norby, plus either Povich or Mcdermott for Skubal? Maybe not enough, but it would be nice for Norby to look good enough in the majors to raise his value for a trade like this to work. Skubal and Burnes would make a nasty 1-2 combo in the playoffs this year and Skubal has 2 more years of control after this year. 

 

Skubal is under control through 2026. Why would they even entertain trading him? If they are out of it at the deadline they will just “retool” and try again next year in what will probably be a wide open division again. 

[OriolesMagic83]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Mayo is probably going to have to play RF next year (or Kjerstad if we are keeping him). Holliday we almost assuredly occupy the only INF spot available at 2B (next year).

For this year, I don't want Norby starting over Santander in RF. Nothing about that seems wise/appealing to me as it would almost inevitably be a step backward. I don't see it being very realistic/probable that Norby out OPS's Santander for the rest of 2024. Santander most likely is beginning to heat up (like he did last year after a slow start).

I'm not that keen on the idea of banking on Irvin to be a shut down reliever in the Fall. I don't really believe that he has the stuff profile for that.

IMO the rotation will be fine as is when Kremer returns. But I have ZERO confidence that this bullpen can pitch us to multiple rounds of postseason success against the best hitters and teams. I can already foresee Cano and/or Kimbrel surrendering late leads in October.

Norby in RF was in 2025 of course. 

[Bemorewins]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Norby in RF was in 2025 of course. 

Mayo most likely will be occupying RF with Holliday at 2B. Mayo and Holliday are going to be the priority when it comes to position place (being given an everyday spot) as they are the much better players than Norby.

[OriolesMagic83]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Mayo most likely will be occupying RF with Holliday at 2B. Mayo and Holliday are going to be the priority when it comes to position place (being given an everyday spot) as they are the much better players than Norby.

Mayo could also be at 1B and 3B.  I don't think his position is set in stone.  Isn't he mostly still playing 3B in the minors?

[Greg Pappas]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Mayo most likely will be occupying RF with Holliday at 2B. Mayo and Holliday are going to be the priority when it comes to position place (being given an everyday spot) as they are the much better players than Norby.

Holliday at 2B, certainly.  Mayo in RF is not "likely".  Mayo has played a bit of RF before and seems capable there, but whether we're comfortable playing him there will be the question, as he has not played there at all in the minors.  He still plays the bulk of his games at 3B (34) and some at 1B (9).   I, personally, like the idea of Mayo in RF.  Great arm, too.  But it doesn't appear the O's are making plans to consider trying him there.  @Tony-OH could provide more insight, however.

Edited June 4 by Greg Pappas

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Mayo could also be at 1B and 3B.  I don't think his position is set in stone.  Isn't he mostly still playing 3B in the minors?

Westburg is and should be the 3B and Holliday will be the 2B. Unless we are getting rid of Mountactle and O'Hearn. I don't see a bunch of space/playing time at 1B or 3B being available in 2025.

He is still playing 3B (the only reason that I can think of is to keep options open for the purpose of a potential trade showcase). But we also continued to play Holliday at SS when it was pretty clear that Gunnar would occupy that spot.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Holliday at 2B, certainly.  Mayo in RF is not.  Mayo has played a bit of RF before and seems capable there, but whether we're comfortable playing him there will be the question.  I, personally, like the idea of Mayo in RF.  Great arm, too.

There is no other place to put Mayo, unless we would be getting rid of Mountcastle or O'Hearn. And I'm not sure how sie that would be nor am I confident that Elias and co would do that given how hesitant that they are to allow any talent to walk out of the door. With all of the INF talent in the org, we decided to keep both Urias and Mateo instead of starting the season with Norby (when he had already been at AAA for all of 23' and succeeded). He was in essence forced to repeat the level for no reason other than we didn't want to surrender a backup player with a limited skill-set like Urias.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Westburg is and should be the 3B and Holliday will be the 2B. Unless we are getting rid of Mountactle and O'Hearn. I don't see a bunch of space/playing time at 1B or 3B being available in 2025.

He is still playing 3B (the only reason that I can think of is to keep options open for the purpose of a potential trade showcase). But we also continued to play Holliday at SS when it was pretty clear that Gunnar would occupy that spot.

I don't think Mountcastle/O'Hearn should be blocking Mayo at 1B/DH.  They are nice players, but definitely replaceably and Mountcastle is entering his 2nd year of arbitration at about $6 million next year and O'Hearn will be $7.5 million.  Mayo could probably provide comparable production to either one for the MLB minimum. 

[RarityFlaherty]

31 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Skubal is under control through 2026. Why would they even entertain trading him? If they are out of it at the deadline they will just “retool” and try again next year in what will probably be a wide open division again. 

Because they don’t think they can resign him and they want to trade him at his highest value. Not saying the Tigers definitely would trade him, but I’ve seen some chatter from Detroit sportswriters about whether or not to trade him now at his highest value. It’s just an interesting option to think about. 

[Greg Pappas]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't think Mountcastle/O'Hearn should be blocking Mayo at 1B/DH.  They are nice players, but definitely replaceably and Mountcastle is entering his 2nd year of arbitration at about $6 million next year and O'Hearn will be $7.5 million.  Mayo could probably provide comparable production to either one for the MLB minimum. 

I agree with you that Mayo could be an option at 1B, but the O's are likely to retain Mountcastle and, perhaps, O'Hearn as well.  O'Hearn has been an excellent addition thus far, but should not keep a spot from Kjerstad/Mayo. DH is an obvious choice for Mayo until a spot opens up, such as Mounty moving on.  Mayo can also fill in at 3B on occasion. 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't think Mountcastle/O'Hearn should be blocking Mayo at 1B/DH.  They are nice players, but definitely replaceably and Mountcastle is entering his 2nd year of arbitration at about $6 million next year and O'Hearn will be $7.5 million.  Mayo could probably provide comparable production to either one for the MLB minimum. 

Why would we not want to keep "nice players" to cut costs when we are not paying anyone? Why would we get rid of proven/capable Major League hitters so that Mayo, Holliday, Norby can all be in the lineup together trying to acclimate/figure out things at this level all at the same time? Are you certain that Norby would outproduce Mountcastle straight up?