The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You think much more highly of Scherzer than I do or his current ability suggest. At best he would only be the FIFTH starter for the Phillies and would not crack their playoff rotation. I don't see where he would even fit in their bullpen. So I don't even think that would be an option. Once Yamamoto and Buehler return, I can't see the Dodgers having much interest.

Yes we could use him. But I don't think that he is this ultra valued commodity anymore where he can just pick his spot. He really didn't help the Rangers at all last postseason when they acquired him. But they were fine because they buffered themselves with the Montgomery acquisition. I would hate for Scherzer to be all we do.

At his age (recent injury history) he simply isn't reliable enough to be counted on in that way. If this was 2013- 2021 when he was absolutely stellar that would be one thing. But now, he really isn't close to what he once was.

 

Based off of what?

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Based off of what?

lol Which part?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

lol Which part?

You said he’s not close to what he was, based on what?  How are you defining close?

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You said he’s not close to what he was, based on what?  How are you defining close?

Well, probably 3 ways - 1) Reliability (the injuries are pilling up) he couldn't even hold up in the postseason last year after skipping 2 rounds. 2) His stuff has really diminished. Look at the decrease on the FB velo. As a matter of fact, just look at the suspension last season for "sticky stuff" after he knew the game had cracked down on that. That to me says that he had to try to rely on outlawed "an edge" because he was not confident in his natural ability. 3) The numbers. Look a his average WAR from 2013 - 2021. And look at the last couple of seasons. His ERA with the Mets last season was the highest it had been in a non-pandemic shortened season since what 2011? Look at the dramatic falloff in IP per season the last 3 seasons.

Just about any way you want to quantify a player shows a player well past his prime and nowhere near what he was. Which you would expect given his age and the wear and tear on his body at this point.

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s very possible I think.(which is why I suggested it to begin with)

That’s almost like a pure salary dump? I like Mountcastle but he can’t have much value. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Well, probably 3 ways - 1) Reliability (the injuries are pilling up) he couldn't even hold up in the postseason last year after skipping 2 rounds. 2) His stuff has really diminished. Look at the decrease on the FB velo. As a matter of fact, just look at the suspension last season for "sticky stuff" after he knew the game had cracked down on that. That to me says that he had to try to rely on outlawed "an edge" because he was not confident in his natural ability. 3) The numbers. Look a his average WAR from 2013 - 2021. And look at the last couple of seasons. His ERA with the Mets last season was the highest it had been in a non-pandemic shortened season since what 2011? Look at the dramatic falloff in IP per season the last 3 seasons.

Just about any way you want to quantify a player shows a player well past his prime and nowhere near what he was. Which you would expect given his age and the wear and tear on his body at this point.

He was really good last year and the results so far this year are good although the K rate is not.

But that’s really the main point..we have no idea how good or bad he is right now and I think it’s very clear he is a guy you would want starting for us in the playoffs. 
 

He needs more starts under his belt this year to get a better feel for where he is.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

That’s almost like a pure salary dump? I like Mountcastle but he can’t have much value. 

It’s not a salary dump at all. It’s 2 teams exchanging for players in positions they need and Texas gets a longer term option at a position they need and it signals they aren’t rebuilding, which they won’t be.

They certainly may want pitching or may want cheaper more cost controlled guys but Mounty fits them and makes sense for them.

[toughbuff1]

I'm curious why so many people seem adamant about trading Mounty? For a team that is left- handed heavy he's one of the few righties we have that can rake 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, toughbuff1 said:

I'm curious why so many people seem adamant about trading Mounty? For a team that is left- handed heavy he's one of the few righties we have that can rake 

It’s not about being adamant…it’s about options.

And Mayo would take his spot as a righty.

[toughbuff1]

I'm as high on Mayo as most, but there's no guarantee he'll come in and start hitting right away.  Cowser Kjerstad Holliday and Stowers and Henderson all struggled during their initial callus. Heck, even Mike Trout struggled in his first season. 

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Well, probably 3 ways - 1) Reliability (the injuries are pilling up) he couldn't even hold up in the postseason last year after skipping 2 rounds. 2) His stuff has really diminished. Look at the decrease on the FB velo. As a matter of fact, just look at the suspension last season for "sticky stuff" after he knew the game had cracked down on that. That to me says that he had to try to rely on outlawed "an edge" because he was not confident in his natural ability. 3) The numbers. Look a his average WAR from 2013 - 2021. And look at the last couple of seasons. His ERA with the Mets last season was the highest it had been in a non-pandemic shortened season since what 2011? Look at the dramatic falloff in IP per season the last 3 seasons.

Just about any way you want to quantify a player shows a player well past his prime and nowhere near what he was. Which you would expect given his age and the wear and tear on his body at this point.

The most relevant point is his health.  How he compares to his younger self doesn't really matter.  At least not as much as how he compares to other 2024 options.

[LGOrioles]

9 minutes ago, toughbuff1 said:

I'm as high on Mayo as most, but there's no guarantee he'll come in and start hitting right away.  Cowser Kjerstad Holliday and Stowers and Henderson all struggled during their initial callus. Heck, even Mike Trout struggled in his first season. 

That’s true that he might not. But Gunnar was good in his brief stint in 2022 (128 wRC+ in 34 games). It was his first 2 months in 2023 that weren’t great. Even with that, from his debut through May 2023, he still had a 111 wRC+.

Gunnar was younger in AAA than Mayo is right now, but Mayo walked more, struck out less, and had a higher ISO. Even if he’s a 110-115 wRC+ guy, he’s likely more valuable to the team than Urías, with the potential to be much, much better if he clicks right away. 

Edited July 9 by LGOrioles

[Safelykept]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Quit crying.  Your posts are hard to decipher.  I’m sorry you are sensitive to me saying that but when you are trying to ask me something and I don’t know what it is you saying, I can’t answer you. 
 

Im not moving any goal posts, I just don’t know what you are asking.

And I didn’t realize 8 and 10M are the same thing (I don’t think Mounty gets to 8M either). I thought 10 was bigger than 8?  Hmmm, who knew? 

I was quite clear on what I said a deal for Mounty was. If that’s what you are asking about, just read what I wrote.

Yeah I took a little nap. Did not mean to be hard to decipher> maybe me and you are just wired to confuse each other. None of this may matter because as mentioned by me and others Texas just might stay the course. I posted something on page 136 about a team that will be selling Miami. His name is Brian Hoeing. What do you think about him?, and I'm not trying to bait you, I do respect your knowledge on a lot of topics, just not all. So, brian Hoeing?

[Safelykept]

4 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Yeah I took a little nap. Did not mean to be hard to decipher> maybe me and you are just wired to confuse each other. None of this may matter because as mentioned by me and others Texas just might stay the course. I posted something on page 136 about a team that will be selling Miami. His name is Brian Hoeing. What do you think about him?, and I'm not trying to bait you, I do respect your knowledge on a lot of topics, just not all. So, brian Hoeing?

My Bad 166

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Yeah I took a little nap. Did not mean to be hard to decipher> maybe me and you are just wired to confuse each other. None of this may matter because as mentioned by me and others Texas just might stay the course. I posted something on page 136 about a team that will be selling Miami. His name is Brian Hoeing. What do you think about him?, and I'm not trying to bait you, I do respect your knowledge on a lot of topics, just not all. So, brian Hoeing?

Not sure. I see a guy who in the past hasn’t been good at throwing strikes but he’s throwing them this year. The K rate is still low and he doesn’t miss bats. He hasn’t pitched much but the statcast info is meh.

Im not sure I see him as an upgrade over what we have and I’m skeptical he keeps throwing strikes at the level he is this year.