Baseball Reference Odds have Orioles at MLB best 19.4% to win World Series

[Tony-OH]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml

Basically, according to their formula, which can be explained here in more detail, the Orioles have 19.4% chance to win the World Series, 34.5% chance to win the AL Pennant, and a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Basically their formula is:

Quote

MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-06-20. This page does not update during the postseason.

Basically they are the best team in baseball by their account. 

Fangraphs uses a different system and has the Orioles as the second most favored team to win the World Series (8.3%) in the AL behind, you guessed it, the Yankees (14.6%). They have the Dodgers at 17%, Phillies 12.9%, and Braves 9.7% ahead of the Orioles. So in their calculations, the Orioles are the 5th best team.

Now, this means nothing in the big game of things, but just something interesting to see. 

 

[now]

That's a striking difference both in odds results (19.4% vs. 8.3%) and type of projection system. The MLB system is based heavily on past performance, whereas the Fangraphs system is based most heavily on future projections. (Though maybe the difference in approach is not as great as it appears since Fangraphs' "projections" are based, after all, on past performance.) Obviously we like the result of the first system better, but is it more suspect since it includes 26 games from last season's roster?

[Say O!]

In the NL, there really are only two great teams (PHI, LAD) and one good (ATL).  Maybe could make an argument for MIL.  In essence the NL kinda sucks.  I think lack of quality/depth has quite a bit to do with WS odds since AL has NYY and Os, along with good teams in CLE, SEA, upstarts in KCR, MIN and talented rosters in HOU and TEX.

[DirtyBird]

Fangraphs sucks

[Sports Guy]

Are people actually looking at this Yankees team?

[emmett16]

Pinch me.  I must be dreaming. 

[DirtyBird]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Are people actually looking at this Yankees team?

Fangraphs has them 64.5% to win the division

[Hallas]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Are people actually looking at this Yankees team?

Fangraphs is giving them some extra credit because they think their ROS strength of schedule is easier than the Orioles, and because their projections for Judge and Soto are a little more stable than some of our guys.

 

The other thing is that Fangraphs is going to default to giving the division winner a big boost because they don't have to play a wild card series.  Since the Yanks are projected to win the division 2 out of 3 seasons and the 2 teams are likely to be 1-2 in AL overall standings, the division winner gets a bye and for all intents and purposes has their WS chances doubled.

[Uli2001]

39 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Pinch me.  I must be dreaming. 

It's true, but all for nothing if they don't add another shutdown starter and couple of relievers.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, now said:

That's a striking difference both in odds results (19.4% vs. 8.3%) and type of projection system. The MLB system is based heavily on past performance, whereas the Fangraphs system is based most heavily on future projections. (Though maybe the difference in approach is not as great as it appears since Fangraphs' "projections" are based, after all, on past performance.) Obviously we like the result of the first system better, but is it more suspect since it includes 26 games from last season's roster?

I have to think that most of that difference is that Baseball Reference thinks the O's are going to win the Division, while Fangraphs thinks the Yanks will.

By basic probability having to play another series, in rough terms, halves your odds of winning the whole thing. If each series were a coin flip (which isn't that far from reality) the odds of winning four straight series is (.5)^4 = 6%, while getting through three is (.5)^3 = 12.5%.

That's why the Yanks were able to win so many Series in the pre-Division era and can't today. Because they made the postseason most of the time, and had roughly a 50% shot on day one of the playoffs prior to 1969, but today it's (about) 6-12%.

Edit: as I'm typing this @Hallas says mostly the same thing.

Edited June 21 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

It's true, but all for nothing if they don't add another shutdown starter and couple of relievers.

Nobody is going to cry if those things are added. But not adding them doesn't guarantee failure. Last year's D'backs won just 84 games, had a bunch of pretty big holes in their lineup, their bench wasn't that deep, three of their top six starters had an ERA over 5.00, their closer had just 13 saves, their bullpen innings leader had a 4.73 ERA, and they ended up just three wins away from the World Series title.

[Too Tall]

I'd feel much better if Roy said we had a 0% chance to win the World Series!  

[interloper]

Have they seen our bullpen??

[e16bball]

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs has multiple “projection modes.”

The default method (called “Fangraphs”) seems to heavily weight their preseason projections into the recipe. This is the mode in which the Yankees are projected to finish more strongly than the Orioles — and in which we only have the referenced 8% chance of WS glory. Which is due in large part to the fact that before the season, Fangraphs had them winning the division and the Orioles well behind.

They have a couple other modes that are also based on preseason projections, and I think they’re just too sticky as it relates to those projections. Yes, if you think Gunnar Henderson is going to regress to his projected 121 wRC+ and the combination of Santander/Westburg/Cowser/O’Hearn is collectively going to provide below-average hitting (as per The Bat X), then the air probably is going to come out of our balloon. But what living, breathing human actually believes those things after watching the first half of this season? So what’s the value in forming a forward-looking projection system around what appear to be badly erroneous guesses from months ago?

Unsurprisingly, those systems all favor the Yankees as well. Much easier to make aggressive preseason projections of success for guys with many years of track record like the old heads on the Bronx Bummers.

The Season-to-Date mode that only uses this year’s data (and not the preseason projections) is my favorite, because I didn’t put much stock in the FG projections in February and I sure as hell don’t put any in them now. In this mode, the Orioles are projected to finish with 105 wins, a 62.3% chance to take the division, and a 17.4% chance to raise the trophy.

Sadly, though, all of these models have missed the memo (somewhat widely circulated here) that the Orioles have a 0% chance of winning the World Series unless they add 2-4 high-end pitchers to the roster — so I suppose they’re all flawed to some extent. 

Edited June 21 by e16bball

[Just Regular]

I believe Fangraphs projections don't know Gerrit Cole is trying to thread the non-surgical recovery needle on an elbow injury and probably have already been updated for Kyle Bradish vanishing.

Projection dominance I believe skews as an old player skill, and Elias has contrived to deliver the roster some old young players whose generic projections lag behind the performance capability the Orioles have curated.    Perhaps with some wizardry some of the other 29 clubs have not.