Gunnar Henderson - What are the chances?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

Not 0%, but under 12.5%, which means 0% is the closest-to-the-pin answer.

I think it would take an injury to Gunnar to move him off SS at this point.  As a point of comparison, Cal Ripken did not move off SS until age 35 and averaged 10 Rtot per year at SS.  Gunnar has played just over 1 full season at SS now and has an Rtot of 19 (17 per season).  Was Ripken hurting the O's at SS?  Nope.  While he had a record-setting season in 1984 (AL record for assists at the time), his 3-year peak for defense by Rtot was not until 1989-91.  The Orioles didn't have anyone who would or could replace Ripken there, but moving him would have been a huge mistake in terms of the relative offensive value he was creating with above-average defense.

Henderson is starting from a higher base defensively, so despite the presence of another outstanding hitting prospect, it would take a seismic shift in relative defensive value to move Henderson, which I think is very unlikely in the short-term window offered (by 2026).

I think it's also possible this would piss off Henderson and actually reduce the chance he re-signs with the O's.  For that reason alone, Holliday might need to be BETTER at SS to force such a move.  I don't see any evidence that will happen by 2026. 

The one thing you said here that was key is that the Os didn’t have anyone to move him off of SS.(and maybe there isn’t anyone to move Gunnar off either)

And yes there is a lot of positional value for the offense Gunnar is producing but that could also be the case for Holliday.

 

[emmett16]

If Gunnar finishes the season at 11+WAR he will be in a group with 12 other players that include Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Carl Yaz, Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Lou Gehrig, and Joe Morgan.  Unless he gets hurt there is 0% chance they move him away from where he’s had that success. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

If Gunnar finishes the season at 11+WAR he will be in a group with 12 other players that include Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Carl Yaz, Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Lou Gehrig, and Joe Morgan.  Unless he gets hurt there is 0% chance they move him away from where he’s had that success. 

I 100% agree with that but I don’t think this discussion is about 2025. I think 2025 is set in stone barring injuries.

I think this is more about 2026 and beyond. 
 

The aspect of this discussion, for me at least, that matters a lot is that Holliday is 20 years old. It’s possible he’s the long term SS but that long term doesn’t start until he’s 22 or 23 years old. There is a lot of room for growth with him, even if he’s the best positional prospect in the sport.

Judging by how people talk about him, I think it gets forgotten by people how old he is.

[Hallas]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I 100% agree with that but I don’t think this discussion is about 2025. I think 2025 is set in stone barring injuries.

I think this is more about 2026 and beyond. 
 

The aspect of this discussion, for me at least, that matters a lot is that Holliday is 20 years old. It’s possible he’s the long term SS but that long term doesn’t start until he’s 22 or 23 years old. There is a lot of room for growth with him, even if he’s the best positional prospect in the sport.

Judging by how people talk about him, I think it gets forgotten by people how old he is.

I think even in 2026 or 2027 Gunnar would have to get injured and see a big decline in his defense to push him off.  We don't know how he will age but Gunnar ain't exactly old.  He'll be 25 in 2026.  If he stays healthy this isn't a conversation we need to have until like 2030.

 

JJ Hardy was a plus defender until at least 33 and he doesn't have anywhere near the physical tools Henderson has.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think even in 2026 or 2027 Gunnar would have to get injured and see a big decline in his defense to push him off.  We don't know how he will age but Gunnar ain't exactly old.  He'll be 25 in 2026.  If he stays healthy this isn't a conversation we need to have until like 2030.

 

JJ Hardy was a plus defender until at least 33 and he doesn't have anywhere near the physical tools Henderson has.

Yea I think you would have to see his range becoming an issue as he gains more muscle/weight.  I do think it will have to be something like that at this point but size is the potential issue with him staying there.

Players can peak early with defense…that’s not unusual. Not saying that will happen to Gunnar, just saying I agree a situation like that is probably what is needed to cause a change (that and Holliday’s arm improvement).

[CP0861]

I think Gunnar eventually moves to 3b, but the 2026 season is only like 20 months away and Gunnar might be the best all around player in baseball.

Meanwhile JH is in the minors, getting 80%+ of his reps at 2b and currently hurt.

2026 is too soon. 0% unless there's some other change or development. 

Edited June 23 by CP0861

[Gurgi]

On 6/22/2024 at 6:59 AM, spleen1015 said:

He's not even a good 2B. How's he going to move Gunnar off SS?

The only way he's the everyday SS in Baltimore is if Gunnar is not playing for this team.

This is the facts right now.  Jackson sucks at second base.  Likely he gets better and quickly but he does not inspire confidence that he can ever force the Greek God that is Gunnar Henderson off any position.  Gunnar is going to the Hall if he does not have a injury plagued career.  

[OnlyOneOriole]

47 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

This is the facts right now.  Jackson sucks at second base.  Likely he gets better and quickly but he does not inspire confidence that he can ever force the Greek God that is Gunnar Henderson off any position.  Gunnar is going to the Hall if he does not have a injury plagued career.  

This is why you trade JH for a boatload imo.  Nothing I saw from him during his time up in the majors screamed elite to me.

He looked way over matched and at times could barely thrown to first base. 

He has since not done very well at AAA and is now hurt with an 'elbow'.

I think he is a Dylan Bundy type who is going to flame out early.  Learn from that.