I sort of don't get Elias's plan

[webbrick2010]

23 minutes ago, The Goob said:

I still think bullpen help is more important than another starter.  I am comfortable with Burnes, Rodriguez and Kremer as the top three in a series.  Look at the other likely AL playoff teams

Yankees - Cole, Stroman, Rodon and Cortes

Guardians - Bibee, Lively, McKenzie and Allen

Mariners - Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby and Miller

Royals - Lugo, Ragans, Singer and Wacha

Twins - Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack

I am not sure any of these rotations are better than our even now and I would take our lineup by the end of the year over any other those teams.

Funny you left off the Yankees ace (Gil), I would say all of those top 3 are better than the O's top 3

[Philip]

4 hours ago, Chromehill said:

The good thing about the current playoff setup is that you do not have to panic.  Back when only the division winners made the playoffs, you could not fall too far behind.  After losing 5 games in a row, the O's are still only 2 games out of first for the division and are 7 games up in the wildcard.  

Elias has to wait over the next month to see exactly what the team needs.  If you try to make a trade at this time, you are going to overpay because the other teams are waiting for the deadline to hope a team becomes desperate.  You also have the issue of a most of the NL teams being in contention for the wildcard, not many sellers out there.  In another month, hopefully a few more NL teams realize they need to sell and that widens the trade market hopefully driving the price down for what has to be given up.  

Other teams know exactly what we need. Mike does too. The idea he needs to wait another month to decide what he needs is pretty silly. And the idea that the price will be better a month from now instead of today is also pretty silly. The price will probably be higher, but it won’t be lower.

waiting does nothing except minimize the impact of anyone we pickup.

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s becoming unglued?  Because of losing streak that almost every team goes through in any given season?  Really? 
 

 

I get your point, but the issue isn’t losing a few games, but that two of our pitchers(Suarez and Irwin) have apparently regressed to their mediocre mean, and are no longer dependable, leaving us with two useable starters and huge question marks in Kremer and Povich, AND still one short.

The bullpen, despite lofty MLB Rankings, isn’t reliable, and we have nothing, nothing, in the minors. Will we pray that McDermott is the second coming of Nolan Ryan, who walked everyone in sight but was ok anyway?

We have already lost 14-11 and 10-8. We have excellent offense, and can have better if Mike would end his love affair with Hays and Mullins, but Mike seems reluctant to make any major trades, and Burnes trade aside, that’s been his MO since we got over .500.

The fear is that unless he does something significant, we will slowly sink. The question is whether Mike thinks we won’t sink enough to miss October.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I get your point, but the issue isn’t losing a few games, but that two of our pitchers(Suarez and Irwin) have apparently regressed to their mediocre mean, and are no longer dependable, leaving us with two useable starters and huge question marks in Kremer and Povich, AND still one short.

The bullpen, despite lofty MLB Rankings, isn’t reliable, and we have nothing, nothing, in the minors. Will we pray that McDermott is the second coming of Nolan Ryan, who walked everyone in sight but was ok anyway?

We have already lost 14-11 and 10-8. We have excellent offense, and can have better if Mike would end his love affair with Hays and Mullins, but Mike seems reluctant to make any major trades, and Burnes trade aside, that’s been his MO since we got over .500.

The fear is that unless he does something significant, we will slowly sink. The question is whether Mike thinks we won’t sink enough to miss October.

Suarez and Irvin were always going to regress. You didn’t think they would be sub 3 ERA pitchers did you?  Irvin is a solid guy for the back of the rotation but that’s what he is, a back of rotation guy. They are pieces you need to eat innings and keep you in most games but these aren’t world beaters on the mound.

Suarez is a good story but there is a reason he has had the career he has had.

The fear that we will slowly sink is an unfounded and irrational fear.

The team has to get better and they have to improve on obvious needs but we don’t need to go overboard here.  All teams have holes they need to address.

[The Goob]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Funny you left off the Yankees ace (Gil), I would say all of those top 3 are better than the O's top 3

I don't consider Gil their ace.  He is a rookie with decent stuff but I think he massively regresses before the end of the year.  I do not expect him to get a playoff start ahead of Cole, Stroman, Cortes or even Rodon by the end of the year.  To say they are all better than the Orioles top three is insane to me.  Burnes is better than every pitcher on that list with the possible exception of a healthy Cole which he may not be all of this year.  His situation feels similar to Bradish to me.  Rodriguez is better than all but a handful of the guys on that list.  I think we have 2 of the top 7-10 pitcher in the AL but you think we have a worse rotation than any of the likely AL playoff teams.  That is crazy talk to me.

Edited Wednesday at 15:35 by The Goob

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, The Goob said:

I still think bullpen help is more important than another starter.  I am comfortable with Burnes, Rodriguez and Kremer as the top three in a series.  Look at the other likely AL playoff teams

Yankees - Cole, Stroman, Rodon and Cortes

Guardians - Bibee, Lively, McKenzie and Allen

Mariners - Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby and Miller

Royals - Lugo, Ragans, Singer and Wacha

Twins - Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack

I am not sure any of these rotations are better than our even now and I would take our lineup by the end of the year over any other those teams.

A few of them are comparable. I rather have Kirby, Singer, Ober, or a healthy Rodon, as my number 3 over Kremer. 

I don't have a problem with Kremer as my number four, but i'd like another pitcher who can regularly shut down an offense in the top 3.  I also look at the FA deadline as perhaps the best opportunity to add a guy who can replace some of Burnes production when he likely he leaves after the season.  I would be floating Kjerstad for a pitcher like that. 

[OriolesMagic83]

More should have been done to improve the team's rotation and Bullpen in the offseason.  Since John Angelos controlled the purse strings, additional spending was just not happening.  I put that on Angelos not Elias.  Does anyone think that Elias would not have liked say $30 million to add to 2024 payroll to strengthen the pitching?  This trade deadline is a time for Rubinstein to prove himself as much as Elias.

[Philip]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Suarez and Irvin were always going to regress. You didn’t think they would be sub 3 ERA pitchers did you?  Irvin is a solid guy for the back of the rotation but that’s what he is, a back of rotation guy. They are pieces you need to eat innings and keep you in most games but these aren’t world beaters on the mound.

Suarez is a good story but there is a reason he has had the career he has had.

The fear that we will slowly sink is an unfounded and irrational fear.

The team has to get better and they have to improve on obvious needs but we don’t need to go overboard here.  All teams have holes they need to address.

Your comment basically confirms what I said. You admit that Suarez and Irwin would regress, which they have. As a result of that regression, they are no longer reliable members of a powerful rotation.
Therefore, we will slowly sink unless Mike gets someone better, and not just one, either. How is it an irrational fear to say we will slowly sink if we don’t make acquisitions? You just agreed that Suarez and Irwin aren’t adequate, so the concern is completely valid. Add to that Kremer’s spotty performance and injury concerns, and Povich remaining a huge question mark. Outside our top two, we got nobody dependable. And that’s just discussing the starters.

your comment is curious because you try to refute what I was saying but instead confirm it, and you close by admitting they “have to improve on obvious needs” 

We can debate what would constitute “going overboard,” but it’s clear from his past transactions that Mike cares a lot about the price he pays for an asset, so I think, far from overpaying, he’s more likely to duplicate what he did last season.

[The Goob]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

A few of them are comparable. I rather have Kirby, Singer, Ober, or a healthy Rodon, as my number 3 over Kremer. 

I don't have a problem with Kremer as my number four, but i'd like another pitcher who can regularly shut down an offense in the top 3.  I also look at the FA deadline as perhaps the best opportunity to add a guy who can replace some of Burnes production when he likely he leaves after the season.  I would be floating Kjerstad for a pitcher like that. 

I don't disagree at all.  I just put a much stronger emphasis on the top two guys in a series instead of three.  In most five game series your third starter will only pitch once.  Win the division and Kremer may make only 4 postseason starts even as our #3 all the way through the World Series.  That's why I would be focused on bullpen arms instead of a starter.  I love the idea of a starter with years of control to help offset the loss of Burnes to FA but I just don't see anyone that attractive that will be available.  This team's path through the AL is to have Burnes and Rodriguez be aces and the lineup to continue to be the best in the league regardless of who the third or fourth starters are.  

[Philip]

8 minutes ago, The Goob said:

I don't consider Gil their ace.  He is a rookie with decent stuff but I think he massively regresses before the end of the year.  I do not expect him to get a playoff start ahead of Cole, Stroman, Cortes or even Rodon by the end of the year.  To say they are all better than the Orioles top three is insane to me.  Burnes is better than every pitcher on that list with the possible exception of a healthy Cole which he may not be all of this year.  His situation feels similar to Bradish to me.  Rodriguez is better than all but a handful of the guys on that list.  I think we have 2 of the top 7-10 pitcher in the AL but you think we have a worse rotation than any of the likely AL playoff teams.  That is crazy talk to me.

Who are the Os top three? Burnes, GRod, and…….?

[Too Tall]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

More should have been done to improve the team's rotation and Bullpen in the offseason.  Since John Angelos controlled the purse strings, additional spending was just not happening.  I put that on Angelos not Elias.  Does anyone think that Elias would not have liked say $30 million to add to 2024 payroll to strengthen the pitching?  This trade deadline is a time for Rubinstein to prove himself as much as Elias.

IMO, this off season is a time for Rubinstein to prove himself as much as Elias. An owner doesn't make trades and if you are talking about taking on big contracts - takes two to tango. I'm not using this trade delined as an indicator for new ownership, but I am anxious to see how next year's budget/payroll plays out.

[interloper]

I agree with the OP. Elias seems to have wildly miscalculated his bullpen and overall pitching staff. Bradish and Means should not have been factored into the equation at all given their injuries, and counting on Wells was suspect as well. 

He didn't find this year's Danny Coulombe or Cano. No magical waiver claims or trade finds to speak of this year. 

Way too much reliance on guys like Perez and Webb, and even Cano, who he should have figured would regress. 

Just a lack of action with regards to the pitching. He made two pitching moves in the offseason and 0 that have worked out  so far during the season (the various waiver claims and minor league deals). 

What are we doing here exactly? 

Edited Wednesday at 15:49 by interloper

[interloper]

I mean imagine having Burnes for 1 single year, and your only other move is Kimbrel. In hindsight it seems pretty ridiculous. 

[Malike]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

Your comment basically confirms what I said. You admit that Suarez and Irwin would regress, which they have. As a result of that regression, they are no longer reliable members of a powerful rotation.
Therefore, we will slowly sink unless Mike gets someone better, and not just one, either. How is it an irrational fear to say we will slowly sink if we don’t make acquisitions? You just agreed that Suarez and Irwin aren’t adequate, so the concern is completely valid. Add to that Kremer’s spotty performance and injury concerns, and Povich remaining a huge question mark. Outside our top two, we got nobody dependable. And that’s just discussing the starters.

your comment is curious because you try to refute what I was saying but instead confirm it, and you close by admitting they “have to improve on obvious needs” 

We can debate what would constitute “going overboard,” but it’s clear from his past transactions that Mike cares a lot about the price he pays for an asset, so I think, far from overpaying, he’s more likely to duplicate what he did last season.

I'm not sure if you just don't like him and are being intentional but it's Irvin, not Irwin. Ben McDonald calls him Irving. It's just Irvin.

[Malike]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean imagine having Burnes for 1 single year, and your only other move is Kimbrel. In hindsight it seems pretty ridiculous. 

If Elias put his glasses on to see the future, I doubt he'd trade for Burnes knowing 3/5ths of the rotation would need TJS.