Early Thoughts on the 2023 Draft Class

[sportsfan8703]

Rd    Pick   Name                               Pos    School                                Stats
1       17     Enrique Bradfield Jr.        CF      Vanderbilt University          Stats
2       53     Mac Horvath                   OF      North Carolina U               Stats 
3B   100    Tavian Josenberger         OF      Arkansas University             Stats 
5     154    Jake Cunningham           OF      UNC Charlotte (NC)            Stats
10   301   Matthew Etzel                 OF      Southern Mississippi           Stats
16   481   Cole Urman                    C         Cal State Fullerton              Stats 
20   601  Jalen Vasquez                SS         North Greenville U (SC)     Stats 

 

Bonuses
Rd	Pk			Slot                 Bonus                Savings
1.	17   Enrique Bradfield Jr.			$4,170,000      4,170,000               0
2	53   Mac Horvath			$1,580,000      1,400,000          $180,000
3B.	100 Tavian Josenberger			$671,800          630,000             $41,800
5.	154 Jake Cunningham			$396,700          375,000             $21,700
10.	301 Matthew Etzel			$167,000          167,000                    0

Edited July 20 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

Etzel is carrying the class in terms of early production. He’s already in AA Bowie. He’s not a little guy either for a CF, which you would think with him being a 10th rd pick. He’s 6’2” 200. 

EBJ I feel like is going to frustrate us because he might be the Jorge Mateo of CF.  Casual fans don’t like that, but our lineup is poised to carry a GG level CF with elite base stealing/base running. 

I’ll lump Josenberger and Vasquez together at the moment. Both are guys with 30+ SB, but in that .670 OPS range in A+ Aberdeen. Again, just like EBJ, can they get that OPS up enough to be playable offensively. I do not know about their defense. Can Josenberger play CF  in pro ball?  How does Vasquez look at SS?

Urman and Cunningham are struggling.

Horvath hit just .199 in April and May.  He got off to a slow start and hit the IL for a bit. He’s really come on recently.  
 

Thoughts?

 

[RZNJ]

Bradfield -  C- .  Needs a big second half.

Horvath - C.  Needs a good second half.

Baumeister - C.  Walks are a big problem.

Josenberger - C+.  For the 3rd round at least he’s interesting.
 

Levi Wells - D.  Showed glimpses but getting knocked around way too much.

Matthew Etzel - A.  Couldn’t ask for much better from a 10th round pick.

Good news -  He looks like the best player from this draft

Bad news - He looks like the best player from this draft.

The O’s went for speed and athletes so there’s still a chance some of these guys figure it out.  So far, not so good.

 

Interesting arms.

Nestor German

Teddy Sharkey (TJ surgery)

Kiefer Lord (TJ surgery)

Edited July 5 by RZNJ

[CaptainRedbeard]

I was very excited by Cunningham given the tools but he’s looking like a non-prospect, he is the biggest disappointment for me.

EBJ may not shoot through the minors like our recent high college hitter picks but it hasn’t been all bad. Exactly 100 wRC+ as a 22 year old speed/defense CF in A+ ball. It’s more of the same from his short debut last year with good K/BB rates, and the power hasn’t been terrible relative to expectations, hovering around .100 ISO all year. He just has a much lower BABIP than you would expect for a super fast guy in the low minors, and that’s not a great sign for his line drive contact quality but not a big red flag quite yet.

Especially with Cowser showing so well defensively there is no reason to rush EBJ. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a trade since he likely still has good trade value and is definitely one of the highest profile position players in the second tier of the system where they’re most likely to deal from. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Bradfield -  C- .  Needs a big second half.

Horvath - C.  Needs a good second half.

Baumeister - C.  Walks are a big problem.

Josenberger - C+.  For the 3rd round at least he’s interesting.
 

Levi Wells - D.  Showed glimpses but getting knocked around way too much.

Matthew Etzel - A.  Couldn’t ask for much better from a 10th round pick.

Good news -  He looks like the best player from this draft

Bad news - He looks like the best player from this draft.

The O’s went for speed and athletes so there’s still a chance some of these guys figure it out.  So far, not so good.

 

Interesting arms.

Nestor German

Teddy Sharkey (TJ surgery)

Kiefer Lord (TJ surgery)

Thanks for the info on Sharkey and Lord. Also, you brought this up in the draft discussion, but our 16th rd OF Qrey Lott from 2023 could still be signed. I would think in a “weaker” draft as this year is viewed, and a draft that we traded a pick for Burnes, that we would want to sign him. 

Edited July 5 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks for the info on Sharkey and Lord. Also, you brought this up in the draft discussion, but our 16th rd OF Qrey Lott from 2023 could still be signed. I would think in a “weaker” draft as this year is viewed, and a draft that we traded a pick for Burnes, that we would want to sign him. 

We would want to sign him if we still think he’s good.   They had a season to watch him at junior college.  

[Frobby]

I’ve been happy with Horvath’s recent surge.  1.009 OPS in June.  He needs to back that up with another good month, but at least we know he’s capable of having one.  I keep waiting for Bradfield to really go on a tear, but it feels like every time he has 3-4 cf consecutive good days, he cools right back down.  

[sportsfan8703]

I edited the title to include pitchers too. 

Revisiting this… what does everyone think of the pitching?

Baumeister - he’s having a good year. 3.11 ERA in Aberdeen

Forret - 3.78 ERA across both A levels  

Fruit - 3.39 ERA in Aberdeen

Bragg - 4.58 ERA in Delmarva, Good K #s

Cravey - 5.44 ERA in Delmarva

German - good year  1.80 ERA in Delmarva

Money - Good year  3.46 ERA in Delmarva 

Cooper - Good year  2.69 ERA in Delmarva

Barnhart - 2.95 ERA as a reliever across both A levels  

Hurt - Sharkey TJ, Lord ?, Wells ?

It’s hard doing a post like this from a cell phone. 

@RZNJ @Tony-OH Numbers wise this doesn’t look so bad. What are the injuries to the pitchers?  Are the numbers better than the scouting reports and doesn’t show long term success?

An underrated draft?  Really only Cravey and the injured guys have disappointed. 

This class sort of reminds me of the return we got for Dylan Bundy. Bradish, Brnovich, Peek, and that reliever that quickly flames out. All were college pitchers from the 2019 draft. Not high picks either. But we developed them. Bradish obviously. Peel and Brnovich missed time with their own TJ. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I edited the title to include pitchers too. 

Revisiting this… what does everyone think of the pitching?

Baumeister - he’s having a good year. 3.11 ERA in Aberdeen

Forret - 3.78 ERA across both A levels  

Fruit - 3.39 ERA in Aberdeen

Bragg - 4.58 ERA in Delmarva, Good K #s

Cravey - 5.44 ERA in Delmarva

German - good year  1.80 ERA in Delmarva

Money - Good year  3.46 ERA in Delmarva 

Cooper - Good year  2.69 ERA in Delmarva

Barnhart - 2.95 ERA as a reliever across both A levels  

Hurt - Sharkey TJ, Lord ?, Wells ?

It’s hard doing a post like this from a cell phone. 

@RZNJ @Tony-OH Numbers wise this doesn’t look so bad. What are the injuries to the pitchers?  Are the numbers better than the scouting reports and doesn’t show long term success?

An underrated draft?  Really only Cravey and the injured guys have disappointed. 

This class sort of reminds me of the return we got for Dylan Bundy. Bradish, Brnovich, Peek, and that reliever that quickly flames out. All were college pitchers from the 2019 draft. Not high picks either. But we developed them. Bradish obviously. Peel and Brnovich missed time with their own TJ. 

Pretty sure Kiefer Lord had TJ and Wells is on the IL.   The more advanced college pitchers usually start at Aberdeen.   The longer shots go to Delmarva.  In that regard, Fruit is starting to look interesting and Baumeister could be very interesting if he improves his command control.  German and Money have had their moments in Delmarva.    
 

Forret looks like he could be the best of the bunch.

Not sure who reminds you of Bradish.

Edited July 20 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I edited the title to include pitchers too. 

Revisiting this… what does everyone think of the pitching?

Baumeister - he’s having a good year. 3.11 ERA in Aberdeen

Forret - 3.78 ERA across both A levels  

Fruit - 3.39 ERA in Aberdeen

Bragg - 4.58 ERA in Delmarva, Good K #s

Cravey - 5.44 ERA in Delmarva

German - good year  1.80 ERA in Delmarva

Money - Good year  3.46 ERA in Delmarva 

Cooper - Good year  2.69 ERA in Delmarva

Barnhart - 2.95 ERA as a reliever across both A levels  

Hurt - Sharkey TJ, Lord ?, Wells ?

It’s hard doing a post like this from a cell phone. 

@RZNJ @Tony-OH Numbers wise this doesn’t look so bad. What are the injuries to the pitchers?  Are the numbers better than the scouting reports and doesn’t show long term success?

An underrated draft?  Really only Cravey and the injured guys have disappointed. 

This class sort of reminds me of the return we got for Dylan Bundy. Bradish, Brnovich, Peek, and that reliever that quickly flames out. All were college pitchers from the 2019 draft. Not high picks either. But we developed them. Bradish obviously. Peel and Brnovich missed time with their own TJ. 

Forret is the guy with the best stuff out of this group from what I've seen this year. I've been disappointed by Baumeister's lack of velocity and command, but it's still early. German has some reliever vibes for me, but a nice arm for sure. Nothing has jumped out at me by the rest of them. 

[Tony-OH]

On 7/5/2024 at 9:19 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Etzel is carrying the class in terms of early production. He’s already in AA Bowie. He’s not a little guy either for a CF, which you would think with him being a 10th rd pick. He’s 6’2” 200. 

EBJ I feel like is going to frustrate us because he might be the Jorge Mateo of CF.  Casual fans don’t like that, but our lineup is poised to carry a GG level CF with elite base stealing/base running. 

I’ll lump Josenberger and Vasquez together at the moment. Both are guys with 30+ SB, but in that .670 OPS range in A+ Aberdeen. Again, just like EBJ, can they get that OPS up enough to be playable offensively. I do not know about their defense. Can Josenberger play CF  in pro ball?  How does Vasquez look at SS?

Urman and Cunningham are struggling.

Horvath hit just .199 in April and May.  He got off to a slow start and hit the IL for a bit. He’s really come on recently.  
 

Thoughts?

 

EBJ is do fine even though he's not tearing it up like we had hoped. His groundball rate of 50.5% is still too high, but it is an improvement over last year and his 109 wRC+ is fine. His walk rate has gone down as pitchers are challenging him already because he hasn't shown the ability to hurt them, but his ISO has gone up to .100 so there's a little glimmer. He's slashing .338/.405/.400/.805 over his last 30 days so we may see that promotion to AA soon. 

Etzel obviously has been the guy performing the best and there's a lot to like. He still gives me 4th outfielder vibes because I'm not sure he's going to tap into a enough power to be an everyday guy, but even if he becomes that kind of guy he's a heck of a 10th round pick.

Josenberger has grown on me a bit the more I watch him. He's got a more pop than Bradfield, controls the strike zone and has played a decent 2B. I haven't seen him enough in CF to judge his defense there but the Orioles play him a lot more at 2B. His arm is below average though and that could be an issue for him going to his right and turning DPs.

Vasquez has the tools to play SS in the majors, but needs more consistency. He'll make some nice plays but boot some easy ones. His hitting has been very streaky but he bares watching as a utility guy.

Cunningham just looks like a miss and Urman couldn't hit water if it fell out of a boat, but he's a decent receiver. I can see why the Orioles took a lot of catching because outside of Basallo, I don't see a catching prospect above rookie ball unless you can live with Ardoin's zero bat for his defense.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

German and Money have had their moments in Delmarva.    

Money is unscored upon in July in 3 outings covering 13 innings.  

He wasn’t drafted, but keep an eye on 2023 UDFA Trey Gibson.  3.40 ERA with a 13.1 K/9 in Delmarva, and now 5 scoreless (one outing) in Aberdeen. 
 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Not sure who reminds you of Bradish.

The guys we drafted in 2023, remind me of the return we got for Bundy. Bradish, Peek, and Brnovich, all being mid round unheralded NCAA SP. Just pointing out the similarities between the two. 

[interloper]

I think this could end up as an interesting pitching draft. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I think this could end up as an interesting pitching draft. 

Why?