Why is Mullins starting games at this point?

[LGOrioles]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

a) That's not true. Cowser > Mullins 0.9 WAR. Westburg > Mateo 1.4 WAR.

b) Mullins has much higher upside than Mateo. 

c) Virtually all of Cowser's production was in April. 

d) Westburg can hit RHP, Mateo can't. That is why Mateo is often on the bench. 

According to Fangraphs it is 2 WAR. Even if you cut the difference that’s 1.7 WAR in half a season of AB’s. That’s a huge difference.

Mullins has much higher upside based on what, his 2021 season? Since the beginning of last season he’s been worth 0.6 more WAR than Mateo in 200 more PA’s. Mateo has been much better (0.7 more WAR in 160 less PA’s) than Mullins since the ASB last year. 

Production in April is better than 0 production at all. Even taking out April, Cowser has a 78 wRC+ and Mullins has a 62 wRC+. 

[SteveA]

Not speaking to every night in general, but tonight vs Scherzer, what would the alternative be?

Hays is pathetic vs RHP.

So basically if Cedric sat tonight, Cowser would be in CF, Santander would be in the OF instead of DH, and O'Hearn would be at DH, and that would open up a spot for Mountcastle.

So who should start vs Scherzer, Mountcastle or Mullins????

Mullins vs RHP this year:   .694 OPS
Mountcastle vs RHP this year:  .698 OPS
   -- Pretty much even

Scherzer OPS by LHB this year:  .695
Scherzer OPS by RHB this year:  .679
  j-- So pretty even, slight edge towards starting Mullins

But Scherzer only has 5 starts, a very limited sample size this year.   Let's look at his career to get a better idea of his splits:

Scherzer OPS by LHB in his career:  .712
Sczerzer OPS by RHB in his career:  .594

That's a significant difference.   Lefties have hit Scherzer well over 100 OPS points better across the course of his career.

So I would say, just looking at numbers, that Mullins in the lineup instead of Hays or Mountcastle is absolutely the right decision tonight.

[Aristotelian]

12 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

According to Fangraphs it is 2 WAR. Even if you cut the difference that’s 1.7 WAR in half a season of AB’s. That’s a huge difference.

Mullins has much higher upside based on what, his 2021 season? Since the beginning of last season he’s been worth 0.6 more WAR than Mateo in 200 more PA’s. Mateo has been much better (0.7 more WAR in 160 less PA’s) than Mullins since the ASB last year. 

Production in April is better than 0 production at all. Even taking out April, Cowser has a 78 wRC+ and Mullins has a 62 wRC+. 

Mullins had 5.9 WAR in 2021 and 4.0 WAR in 2022. Mateo's high was 3.6 WAR and most of that was from defense at a position he no longer plays.

I agree that Cowser has outplayed Mullins but he has been inconsistent enough that he doesn't deserve to start every day--yet. If he can put together another 1.000 OPS month while Cedric continues to hit sub .500, my answer would change.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

Question for the defensive metric guys.  
 

Do the numbers say Mullins has great CF range?  My eyes tell me he still does but it’s hard to tell.  

[jabba72]

I think Mullins may like to have a word about this.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

Well, somebody asked if anybody players read the board earlier today, Cedric obviously does.  

[EddeeEddee]

I think the O's are just giving Mullins the chance to right the ship.  He has shown enough flashes that it looks like he's turned things around -- only to then slump again.

Like Frobby said, as long as the team is winning he'll keep getting his chances. 

I'm one of those who thinks of Mullins as one of the leaders of the team too.  I also think he's one of the best defensive players in all of baseball.  Both of those may or may not be true anymore.  

I think Mullins will keep getting priority in CF so long as the O's win up until the playoffs.  If he hasn't convincingly turned things around by the postseason I think it's possible Cowser (or even Mateo) will start over him in the playoffs.  

[interloper]

You're welcome for the reverse jinx thread!  

[theobird]

Mullins is starting because he is by far the best CFer on this team, and it isn’t close. The object of the game is to score more runs than you allow. Mullins is the best option we have

[emmett16]

Only 13 CF have more HR than Mullins. Of those 13, 4 have 1 more (11HR) & 6 have 2 more (12).

Aaron Judge 34

Brenton Doyle 16

Heliot Ramos 14

JJ Bleday 12

Jazz Chisolm 12

Jackson Merrill 12

Jose Siri 12

Matt Vierling 12

Jarren Duran 12

Jake Meyers 11

Ceddanne Rafaela 11

Luis Robert 11

Julio Rodriguez 11