O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

 

Boy, the O's sure know how to suck the life out of their fan base.  

[terpoh]

FYI

Trevor Rogers 1.4 bWAR in 104 innings

Zach Eflin 0.8 bWAR in 116 innings

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, ledzepp8 said:

Elias is really in a lose-lose situation here.  He can pay what the market has established is the going rate for a starter or he can do nothing. People will bitch either way. You would think he traded Holliday for Trevor Rogers.

Rogers is better than doing nothing. The #5 slot in the rotation had to be fixed. It was untenable to go forward with a near automatic loss every 5th day that constantly fried the bullpen. 

[ledzepp8]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

We don't need "depth insurance" right now. We need difference makers to help push us over the top.

This trade is embarrassingly bad IMO. I'm literally in disbelief that Elias would do this again.

Who were the difference makers that he didn't trade for? You're complaining about this, what do you think Skubal was going to cost?

[HowAboutThat]

56 minutes ago, Go_Os said:

He has averaged 9.34 Ks/9 over his career.

That’s disingenuous. “Over his career” means much less than “recently.”

 

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, terpoh said:

FYI

Trevor Rogers 1.4 bWAR in 104 innings

Zach Eflin 0.8 bWAR in 116 innings

Their statcast pages and peripherals say dramatically different things than bWAR. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

Rogers is better than doing nothing. The #5 slot in the rotation had to be fixed. It was untenable to go forward with a near automatic loss every 5th day that constantly fried the bullpen. 

This is pretty much my view on it. Better than nothing this year as a more reliable #5 option, another controllable SP option for 2025+ and they also cashed in Norby and Stowers. Better than Montas or Quantril, probably.

I’m just not very optimistic that Rogers is going to revert to his pre-injuries form or be any more than he’s shown this year. 

[Tony-OH]

If you think about this trade just from the point of whether the team is better today than it was yesterday, the answer to that is yes.

Rogers is better than Povich or McDermott (who needs to start being developed as a reliever) right now and this allows the Orioles to move Suarez to the bullpen where he should help out a beleaguered group. 

As for Rogers, he's a 5th starter with some upside if he can refind some things, but my concern is that he had shoulder and bicep injuries last year and he's lost about a MPH or two since last year. In his last three starts he's average around 91 MPH on his fastball. His changeup is clearly his best pitch but his slider is pretty bad so if he's not commanding the fastball/changeup mix, he's going to have a short day.

Despite his lack of velocity, he has pitched pretty well over his last 11 starts, pitching to a 3.32 ERA and holding batters to a .244/.316/.403/.719. However, his FIP was 4.46 over that same period and his .270 BABIP suggest he's been a bit lucky. His statcast info is just plain ugly this year, but was decent last year in his 4 starts and was really good in 2021. 

Both Norby and Stowers were blocked here, but I think they are going to both become good major league regulars, especially if teams can live with Norby's defense at 2B. But let's face it, they are the kinds of guys you move to improve your team. 

Now would I have liked a more impactful pitcher, sure, but he's controllable and cheap over the next two seasons and if he can be solid #4 or #5, that's worth giving up two guys that were blocked. 

I really would have liked if they got an impact reliever, but it seems the price tag on these guys are pretty insane. 

Eflin with the #3 that will start in the playoffs for this team and the better of Kremer or Rogers would be the #4 if needed. You also have to wonder if Suarez will get some chances to close if he pitches well in relief. If Suarez can be the impact reliever this team needs, then the trade looks eve better.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Who were the difference makers that he didn't trade for? You're complaining about this, what do you think Skubal was going to cost?

I don't know. But would love to find out.

[OnlyOneOriole]

I think it was an overpay and here is my reasoning.  Chances are Rogers will barely pitch in the playoffs.....assuming we make the playoffs.  Both of those prospects the Os gave up probably won't be stars but they each could be very solid players. 

We do need starters to fill out the rotation for next year as Burnes is probably gone so I get that part of it.  So to me he seems more valuable for the regular season this year and next.  Not the playoffs.

Which goes back to why I think it was an overpay.  If a guy can't help you in the playoffs, which is what the team really needs....then why give up 2 fairly high level prospects for him? 

Seems as if you could sign a guy in the off season with the same ceiling (a 4 or 5) without giving anyone up.  I wouldn't mind giving up a lot for an elite starter that you have control of and that can be a top starter in the playoffs, but I do mind giving up a decent amount for a starter who is just average. 

I really don't get it.  They could have packaged the guys they traded  today and the ones for Efflin along with one of the top 3 guys of JH, CM or SB and gotten a Crochet or a Skubal and I think they would have come out further ahead. 

Edited July 30 by OnlyOneOriole

[terpoh]

And thats fine. Just saying Rogers isnt a zero like many on here are proclaiming. But Norby and Stowers were almost certainly a zero for us this year and in the future.

[Uli2001]

Sabermetrics say Elias fleeced the Marlins. We will see. If Rogers can regain some of his previous form, this is a solid trade. And he's a lefty and under control long term. You can't argue too much with that.

[Tbone83]

12 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

2 things can be true:

• We definitely needed an upgrade over Suarez/Povich/McDermott/Irvin for the rotation
• Rogers isn't an exciting acquisition, and we overpaid in prospect capital for a back of the rotation arm with velocity issues even though he should be better than the guys listed above (hopefully)

Pretty much my thoughts. I get the need. But it is still an overpay, blocked or not blocked. Maybe we will get lucky, who knows.

It's looking more and more like pitching is going to have to be added via free agency with this assumed higher spending owner. The market is just too damn high, everyone needs pitching.

The Os are like that kid who started saving money for a car in 2016 and built up a nice nest egg, then he starts shopping for the car in spring 2020 as Covid is hitting and all of the sudden his nest egg buys a lot less car.

[terpoh]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I think it was an overpay and here is my reasoning.  Chances are Rogers will barely pitch in the playoffs.....assuming we make the playoffs.  Both of those prospects the Os gave up probably won't be stars but they each could be very solid players. 

We do need starters to fill out the rotation for next year as Burnes is probably gone so I get that part of it.  So to me he seems more valuable for the regular season this year and next.  Not the playoffs.

Which goes back to why I think it was an overpay.  If a guy can't help you in the playoffs, which is what the team really needs....they why give up 2 fairly high level prospects for him? 

Seems as if you could sign a guy in the off season with the same ceiling (a 4 or 5) without giving anyone up.  I wouldn't mind giving up a lot for an elite starter that you have control of and that can be a top starter in the playoffs, but I do mind giving up a decent amount for a starter who is just average. 

I really don't get it.  They could have packaged the guys they traded  today and the ones for Efflin along with one of the top 3 guys of JH, CM or SB and gotten a Crochet or a Skubal and I think they would have come out further ahead. 

You dont know that they couldve packaged these guys with those guys to get Crochet or Skubal. Nobody here does. What we do know is that the market is clearly a sellers market. Do you think Elias didnt try different combinations and trade options?

[scbalt52]

I view it as we got Eflin and Rogers for Norby, Stowers, Horvath, Baumeister, and Etzel. Overall, I like that. I don't care who was for who.