TT: This is who the Orioles are right now (23-27 in last 50 games)

[Roy Firestone]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I laughed when I saw that the other day and I don't believe it at all.

There's no way anyone can convince me that losing Bradish and Means by themselves add up to less than 4.7 WAR.  Now, if they're saying that the players that have replaced Bradish and Means (and others) have offset the loss of WAR and you're left with a delta of 4.7, I can maybe...MAYBE buy that.

I do think injuries will be the downfall of this team when we look back on everything, too many key guys gone for too many stretches of time.  Mateo struggles to hit often but he brings a dimension to this team, IMO, that is sorely missed.  Westburg has proven to be a great glue guy in his second season, he's missed as well.  Also, not having Bautista (which we knew headed into this season, but still) makes this bullpen different with his presence alone.  Bautista without Kimbrel and the addition of Seranthony...I like that back end of that bullpen, much more than what we have now.

I'm rambling...but yeah, I think injuries are the biggest culprit.  After a couple seasons of getting lucky in that department, we haven't been able to dodge that bullet.

I agree with @Sports Guy and others...I'm not so worried about how they are right now or how they've been over the last 50 games...it's what they'll be in six weeks from now that I'm most interested in.  Who's back, who's healthy, etc...a healthy Coulombe who's performing well...Westy, G-Rod...If they're healthy and performing well headed into October, I'm good with it.  

As others have mentioned, the Rangers limped in and caught fire at the right time.  And this year, they're back to being average...or below average, really...they're 11 games under .500.

As disappointing as this recent stretch has been, I'm just hoping they catch fire at the end of October like we know they can with some of the key guys back in the fold.  Unlike the Rangers last year who pushed all their chips to the middle and were hoping on veteran performances from Scherzer and DeGrom and Seager and Semien, we're thankfully not in that situation.  We're set up to compete for the foreseeable future and if they don't get it done this year, there still are chances ahead.

Great post, Moose,and I agree 100%. We may or may not take it this year, but we have so much talent, if we add more pitching we will be a force for a long time to come. I would love to see the return of Grod, Westy, Danny, Webb, if they can come back and perform well we MIGHT just have enough. If they cant or some cant we might fare better next year..Anyway, thanks for the quality post.

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Great post, Moose,and I agree 100%. We may or may not take it this year, but we have so much talent, if we add more pitching we will be a force for a long time to come. I would love to see the return of Grod, Westy, Danny, Webb, if they can come back and perform well we MIGHT just have enough. If they cant or some cant we might fare better next year..Anyway, thanks for the quality post.

Those four you listed are all difference makers.  Coulombe and Webb shore up the bullpen...maybe not to an elite unit, but they make a difference.  G-rod can be great.  Westy is steady in the field and in the lineup.  We're a different team with those guys.

Pitching is the key, and while it's great to have frontline starters like Burnes...I really do believe the key to it all is the bullpen.  A truly dominant bullpen makes a huge difference in the postseason.  

IIRC, last year we were amped up to face the Rangers in the first round because I think we all thought we could get to their bullpen.  Unfortunately, their bullpen caught on fire at the right time.  It wasn't that good before...I haven't looked, but I don't think it's been that good this year.  But it just got hot at the right time.

That said, I'd like to take the guesswork out of it and stack the deck in our favor as best as we can with elite bullpen pieces.  Felix coming back helps in a big way for 2025 but we need more.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I get 2014 Kansas City Royals vibes from Cleveland. Nothing worse than going into the sixth inning trailing a team with a shutdown bullpen during the playoffs. I have to think teams know it in the back of their minds that they need to get the lead early and hold it. That can lead to an offense that gets too aggressive and starts pressing at the plate swinging at pitches outside of the zone.

I don't fear any team in the AL, but my preference is Cleveland gets eliminated before facing Baltimore. I was rooting for the Angels in 2014 to beat the Royals while knowing they would probably lose. A team with a great bullpen, speed and good defense is built for postseason baseball.

My preference is the O's win a 1st round series,because that would be a big step and something the O's have only done once in 26 years.  Wow it's hard to believe that's true.

[Baseball fandom]

Yep I've been saying this myself that these Orioles aren't the Orioles we saw last year and the first couple of months of this year. Time to face the facts. They are just a very average team in every facet. Right now Houston looks to be the best team in the AL and probably the favorite to get back to the Series again. 

[Baseball fandom]

31 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Great post, Moose,and I agree 100%. We may or may not take it this year, but we have so much talent, if we add more pitching we will be a force for a long time to come. I would love to see the return of Grod, Westy, Danny, Webb, if they can come back and perform well we MIGHT just have enough. If they cant or some cant we might fare better next year..Anyway, thanks for the quality post.

The problem is something has gone wrong with the hitting too. Henderson, Adly, Mountcastke, Mullins,  etc just hasn't been performing as well as we had hope the last couple of months.  I read somewhere that the Orioles lead MLB with the most games with 3 runs or less scored. That's a problem. 

Edited August 19 by Baseball fandom

[e16bball]

19 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

I read somewhere that the Orioles lead MLB with the most games with 3 runs or less scored. That's a problem.

That would be problematic if it was true. Fortunately, it isn’t.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I laughed when I saw that the other day and I don't believe it at all.

There's no way anyone can convince me that losing Bradish and Means by themselves add up to less than 4.7 WAR.  Now, if they're saying that the players that have replaced Bradish and Means (and others) have offset the loss of WAR and you're left with a delta of 4.7, I can maybe...MAYBE buy that.

I do think injuries will be the downfall of this team when we look back on everything, too many key guys gone for too many stretches of time.  Mateo struggles to hit often but he brings a dimension to this team, IMO, that is sorely missed.  Westburg has proven to be a great glue guy in his second season, he's missed as well.  Also, not having Bautista (which we knew headed into this season, but still) makes this bullpen different with his presence alone.  Bautista without Kimbrel and the addition of Seranthony...I like that back end of that bullpen, much more than what we have now.

I'm rambling...but yeah, I think injuries are the biggest culprit.  After a couple seasons of getting lucky in that department, we haven't been able to dodge that bullet.

I agree with @Sports Guy and others...I'm not so worried about how they are right now or how they've been over the last 50 games...it's what they'll be in six weeks from now that I'm most interested in.  Who's back, who's healthy, etc...a healthy Coulombe who's performing well...Westy, G-Rod...If they're healthy and performing well headed into October, I'm good with it.  

As others have mentioned, the Rangers limped in and caught fire at the right time.  And this year, they're back to being average...or below average, really...they're 11 games under .500.

As disappointing as this recent stretch has been, I'm just hoping they catch fire at the end of October like we know they can with some of the key guys back in the fold.  Unlike the Rangers last year who pushed all their chips to the middle and were hoping on veteran performances from Scherzer and DeGrom and Seager and Semien, we're thankfully not in that situation.  We're set up to compete for the foreseeable future and if they don't get it done this year, there still are chances ahead.

I think that's all fair. My post was meant to discuss and validate the lack of clutchness over the last 50 games. It was something a lot of had noticed, but Fangraphs stats allowed it to be quantified.

Now, I agree with those who say that "clutchiness" can change, but I do think some guys just put too much pressure on themselves to do too much in those high leverage situations. That's why some relievers with great stuff can't close effectively.

I also agree with the many folks who believe who the Orioles are in mid to late September into October is way more important than who they are right now, which is an inconsistent team that struggles in close games.

The bullpen right now is a HUGE problem. Coulombe will hopefully help later in the year, but we don't know for sure. Even Dominguez scares me in one run games because of his penchant for giving up homers this year. 

If someone in the pen steps up or I should say, if several guys in the pen step up and become guys that will be huge. 

Until then, this team is going to break a lot of hearts late in games.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think that's all fair. My post was meant to discuss and validate the lack of clutchness over the last 50 games. It was something a lot of had noticed, but Fangraphs stats allowed it to be quantified.

Now, I agree with those who say that "clutchiness" can change, but I do think some guys just put too much pressure on themselves to do too much in those high leverage situations. That's why some relievers with great stuff can't close effectively.

I also agree with the many folks who believe who the Orioles are in mid to late September into October is way more important than who they are right now, which is an inconsistent team that struggles in close games.

The bullpen right now is a HUGE problem. Coulombe will hopefully help later in the year, but we don't know for sure. Even Dominguez scares me in one run games because of his penchant for giving up homers this year. 

If someone in the pen steps up or I should say, if several guys in the pen step up and become guys that will be huge. 

Until then, this team is going to break a lot of hearts late in games.

The lack of clutchness is a big thing.  I didn't get to watch all the games this weekend so I'm not sure if I heard it correctly but did we have a game where we left an obscene amount of runners on base?

It's weird to think that Jacob Webb is a key piece to this team in October.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Cleveland is my favorite. Their pen is great. They are #1 in DRS and #11 in OAA, so they can field. They put the ball in play and don’t strike out much at all.

They have a few legit stars guys and a guy who is the most underrated super star in the sport in Ramirez.

 

I also wouldn’t hate it if they won.  Cleveland hasn’t won a World Series since 1948 and it’s a pretty downtrodden city.   However, if we play them and lose I will probably forever hate them.  The 1997 ALCS still stings.  

[interloper]

I think Coulombe is the key to this whole thing. 

[Baseball fandom]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Cleveland is my favorite. Their pen is great. They are #1 in DRS and #11 in OAA, so they can field. They put the ball in play and don’t strike out much at all.

They have a few legit stars guys and a guy who is the most underrated super star in the sport in Ramirez.

 

How do you feel about Houston SG?  They seem to be playing the best baseball over the past couple of months including a sweep of the Orioles and they certainly have the pedigree. Cleveland like the Orioles and Yankees are slumping while Houston is hot. Obviously this could all change a month from now. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

How do you feel about Houston SG?  They seem to be playing the best baseball over the past couple of months including a sweep of the Orioles and they certainly have the pedigree. Cleveland like the Orioles and Yankees are slumping while Houston is hot. Obviously this could all change a month from now. 

Houston is always dangerous. Never count them out. Even when they were losing early this year, there were metrics out there that said it was a mirage

[Baseball fandom]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Houston is always dangerous. Never count them out. Even when they were losing early this year, there were metrics out there that said it was a mirage

I agree they are even within what 5 games now of the 1 seed. I also think Minnesota and Kansas City are playing really good baseball. 

Edited August 19 by Baseball fandom

[dtk9119]

All of the hanging hopes on this team because "the Rangers got hot last year in the playoffs" was a once in a lifetime thing. So I completely disregard that.

Getting guys back healthy is key, but even a healthy Westburg (assuming he is fully healthy and playoff ready), will not solve the "unclutchiness".

Like someone said above, I think Columbe is the key. Even with the "unclutchiness" of the offense, a stable BP where everyone knows their roles is a much bigger factor heading into the playoffs.

I would feel a lot better about this team if the trends start to change back to April/May over the next 37 games even before the injured players get back. The next 10 games vs NYM, HOU, and LAD will tell a lot about this team and if those trends start to reverse.

[Just Regular]

What the Orioles will need to do that it feels like they don't often do is what Devers did in the 8th inning Saturday...push a 3-1 game to a 5-1 game before the last 6 outs.

Elias' talent mix at least for 2024 is going to have to beat the conventional wisdom that good pitching beats good hitting, which recent Rangers and Phillies teams have generally been able to do.

The next step in growth for this unit is blowing up Gerrit Cole or Tanner Bibee or Framber Valdez in a big spot like those other teams have done to Spencer Strider and others.    Even Paul Sewald becomes just batting practice for Corey Seager by the end of a long series they throw literally near every day.