Astros Series - 8/22 - 8/25

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

MLB has some TBAs on the Astros side, while ESPN has these as the likely matchups: 

• Burnes (12-5, 3.10) v Arrighetti (5-11, 5.20)
• Povich (1-6, 5.77) v Brown (11-7, 3.82)
• Suarez (6-4, 3.18) v Valdez (13-5, 3.20)
• Rogers (2-11, 4.92) v Kikuchi (6-9, 4.37)

The raw numbers undersell the Astros SPs that we'll face, as a few of them had bad springs but better summers.  The rookie Arrighetti had back to back 12 and 13 K starts earlier this month. Brown had a nearly 10 ERA in April, but 2.59 since. Similarly, Framber was ok early but has a 2.60 ERA since June 1. And Kikuchi has a 2.42 ERA since the trade, with Houston winning all four of his starts. It's going to be tough. 

The O’s never never faced Arrighetti before, so we’ll see how that goes.  Burnes faced the Astros in June and allowed 4 ER in 7 IP.

The O’s haven’t faced Brown this year, but beat him twice last season, scoring 12 runs in 11.1 innings.  The Astros have not seen Povich.  

The O’s did see Valdez in the June series and he shut them down, allowing 1 run in 7 innings.  We had more success against him last year, scoring 6 runs in 7 innings.  The Astros treated Suarez pretty roughly in June, scoring 5 runs in 5 innings.  

Obviously we have seen a lot of Kikuchi while he was a Blue Jay.  This year he faced us twice, going 4.1 and 6 innings, allowing 1 run each time.  

The Orioles have scored 5.04 runs per game to Houston’s 4.57, and have a 120 OPS+ to Houston’s 109.  Since the all star break, the O’s have averaged 5.34 runs/game and have a .778 OPS, while the Astros have averaged only 3.97 runs/game with a .738 OPS.  In August, the O’s are averaging 4.84 runs/game with a .730 OPS, while the Astros have averaged 4.61 and .755.   

Houston has a big advantage in the bullpen, with a 3.56 ERA to Baltimore’s 4.18.   That understates the current advantage: since the ASB, the Astros pen is at 2.98 to the O’s 5.30.  In August, 2.73 to 6.16.   Ouch!

Bottom line, we have to hope our starters can go deep into games and that we have a multiple run lead when the bullpen takes over.  That’s not a great place to be.  

[Just Regular]

Sounds like Bregman's bad elbow is going to be part of it to the end this season.

 

[Frobby]

So, the Orioles are going with Kremer today to face Kikuchi.   On paper, it’s a very even match, with Kremer at 6-9, 4.30 ERA with and Kikuchi at 6-9, 4.37.  Kremer hasn’t faced the Astros this year, but held them to 2 runs in 7 innings last August.  As I noted earlier in the thread, we’ve seen Kikuchi many times, including twice this year, when he allowed 1 run each time in 4.1 and 6 innings.  I’ve always felt that the key to beating Kikuchi is to get his pitch count up early.  We’ll see if the O’s have any success at that today.  

[ShoelesJoe]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, the Orioles are going with Kremer today to face Kikuchi.   On paper, it’s a very even match, with Kremer at 6-9, 4.30 ERA with and Kikuchi at 6-9, 4.37.  Kremer hasn’t faced the Astros this year, but held them to 2 runs in 7 innings last August.  As I noted earlier in the thread, we’ve seen Kikuchi many times, including twice this year, when he allowed 1 run each time in 4.1 and 6 innings.  I’ve always felt that the key to beating Kikuchi is to get his pitch count up early.  We’ll see if the O’s have any success at that today.  

Adley, Mountcastle, and Eloy Jiménez have good numbers against Kikuchi. Hopefully Ryan's wrist is feeling better and he can return to the lineup today. 

[LA2]

Probably few people here recall Jose Mercedes and his 14-7 season with the 2000 Orioles, but it was an unexpected trip down Memory Lane to see him listed in baseball_reference.com as the second most similar pitcher to Kikuchi through the age of 32:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kikucyu01.shtml

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, LA2 said:

Probably few people here recall Jose Mercedes and his 14-7 season with the 2000 Orioles, but it was an unexpected trip down Memory Lane to see him listed in baseball_reference.com as the second most similar pitcher to Kikuchi through the age of 32:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kikucyu01.shtml

That makes me feel good. 

[Sports Guy]

Kremer has done well vs Houston..except Altuve, who is 7-11 vs him.

The rest of the team is 9-51.

[Frobby]

Altuve is such a difficult out.  

[emmett16]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kikucyu01&t=p&year=2024#157-160-sum:pitching_gamelogs
 

Kikuchi since trade = dealing. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

A split is acceptable, but - I didn't really think there was much hope of sweeping or going 3-1 against the Astros.  I admit after checking their record over the last month my reservations might have been a little overblown, but sweeping the BoSox and the Rays at the opponents' park was not making me feel real good.  They may have cooled off a little, but after game 1, I was feeling pretty low.  A win tonight, is big.

[Just Regular]

48 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kikucyu01&t=p&year=2024#157-160-sum:pitching_gamelogs
 

Kikuchi since trade = dealing. 

I am assured he is terrible.

Anybody wish the Norby-Stowers trade had been for Kikuchi instead of Rogers?     Conceivably this Kikuchi-Kremer matchup could repeat in a Game 3, a Game 7 or both.

We have been fortunate this series Yordan's day to day stuff has cost him games, and big man appears to be absent again tonight. 

[Just Regular]

Nice Passan tidbit timely for Astros games - Santander 40 HR if attained would be first by switch hitter since Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Nice Passan tidbit timely for Astros games - Santander 40 HR if attained would be first by switch hitter since Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran.

Almost makes you wonder how big an advantage it is to switch hit.

[Roy Firestone]

we can do no worse than a split...ill take it of course, but I'd  love to win this series...the Dodger series will be treacherous....

[Roy Firestone]

why not let Holliday start? Sure hes lousy vs lefties...but he's got to be a better option than Emanuel Rivera..let the kid learn..