Candidates for O’s MiL Pitcher of the Year

[Frobby]

With the Aberdeen and Delmarva seasons at an end, it’s time to start thinking about the candidates for O’s minor league pitcher of the year.   This post is going to focus on the pitchers at the A+/A level, since Bowie and Norfolk have games remaining that could impact their pitchers’ credentials.  Here are the A+/A candidates as I see them (in IP order):

Zach Fruit (24, A+) led all O’s A+/A pitchers in IP at 107.0, and posted the best ERA of any A+/A pitcher who threw more than 75 innings, finishing at 3.03.   He had a 1.243 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB.

Blake Money (22, A) was the low A leader in IP at 103,  and had a solid 3.15 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.8 K/BB.

Michael Forrett (20, A/A+) threw 99.2 innings to a 3.88 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.8 K/BB.

Braxton Bragg (23, A) threw 96.2 innings, posting a 3.36 ERA, 1.173 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 5.6 K/BB.

Edgar Portes (21, A+) tossed 94.1 innings to a 3.34 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.4 K/BB.

Trey Gibson (22, A/A+) hurled 92 innings at a 3.72 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB.

Riley Cooper (22, A) pitched 88.0 innings at a 3.07 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 K/BB

Nestor German (22, A/A+) missed more than a month early in the year, but threw 69.0 innings to a 1.59 ERA, 0.937 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 5.3 K/BB.

It is really hard to say which of these candidates I’d promote as the top A+/A candidate for pitcher of the year, which for me is a different exercise from saying which one is our top A+/A pitching prospect.  This is more about 2024 performance than future success in the majors.

I came up with a point system where I ranked these pitchers 1-8 in each of the 5 stats I listed, then added or subtracted points based on age compared to the level at which the pitcher finished the year (for this exercise, “par” was 22 for low A and 23 for high A).  That system yielded the following (lower is better):

German 16

Money 17

Bragg 17

Gibson 21

Forrett 23

Portes 24

Fruit 24

Cooper 32

So, I guess I’m going with German as the best candidate from this group.   He really was superb in all the rate stats, and the fact that he got promoted while Bragg and Money did not also tells you something.   I was reluctant to choose German since his innings were so low compared to most of the others, which is only partially explained by him missing 4-5 weeks of the season.   But at the end of the day, he topped the list pretty easily in ERA and WHIP, was a pretty close 2nd in K/BB to Bragg, who’s a year older and finished a level lower, and his 11.0 K/9 only ranked 5th but wasn’t that far below the leader (11.5).   So in the end, German would be my pick as the best candidate from this group.  (Again, I’m not saying he’s the best prospect of the group.) 

Who would you choose from this group?  I’ll do the AA pitchers next week after their season ends.

[FWIW, while this thread is not about prospect ranking, @Tony-OH’s   “power rankings” currently have Forrett 10, German 21, Portes 31, Gibson 33, Bragg 39, and Fruit HM.  Money and Cooper are not listed.]

[Too Tall]

Thanks, Frobby! I look forward to your write-ups and analysis. So we have our own Nestor - again? But you just have to follow the Money - right? Plus a Civil War general. It's all in a name. Look forward to AA and AAA and how the above fare in 2025. Personnelly, I don't have the ability or knowledge to choose - just like following the conversation. Thanks again!

[Aristotelian]

I was going to vote for German even before you revealed your choice. I love the high K/low BB combination. Bragg is the only one who is close but he had higher ERA and WHIP, and did not advance past Delmarva. 

Might we see either in AA or AZFL?

[Jim'sKid26]

FWIW, I think Forret should be the MiLB PoY for the O's.  Fruit might be a close second. I have no points system though so YMMV...

[Otter]

I have to admit it's pretty concerning to look at this list of the top performing (not necessarily top prospects) pitchers in the lower minors.  Not really much to get excited about....

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Otter said:

I have to admit it's pretty concerning to look at this list of the top performing (not necessarily top prospects) pitchers in the lower minors.  Not really much to get excited about....

I disagree.  @Frobby just listed 8 pitchers and that doesn't include Morfe, and Reilly that we got at the trade deadline.  We're never going to have that high end high school pitching prospect phenom, but Morfe might be close.  I think are pitching is a little underrated.  

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I disagree.  @Frobby just listed 8 pitchers and that doesn't include Morfe, and Reilly that we got at the trade deadline.  We're never going to have that high end high school pitching prospect phenom, but Morfe might be close.  I think are pitching is a little underrated.  

I’m pretty happy with the A+/A pitchers.   In addition to the pitchers who I think are competitive for POY, there are some younger guys whose numbers or innings don’t put them in position for this award, but who have long term potential.  I don’t think anyone I listed has a super high ceiling but I do think some of them could be back of rotation starters or relievers on a future O’s team.  

[sportsfan8703]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m pretty happy with the A+/A pitchers.   In addition to the pitchers who I think are competitive for POY, there are some younger guys whose numbers or innings don’t put them in position for this award, but who have long term potential.  I don’t think anyone I listed has a super high ceiling but I do think some of them could be back of rotation starters or relievers on a future O’s team.  

I definitely think we all have to recalibrate the way we view prospects.  Speaking for myself here, but I know it's been easy to be spoiled where we just have a slew of not just top 100 prospects, but top 1-25.  

Obviously, we traded away Baumeister, Chace, and Johnson, but those were three good pitching prospects we had.  Add in Povich, and McDermott, that are overlooked at times.  A guy like Morfe isn't even on this list.  Plus, Reilly.  

The system isn't as bare as we think.  Bradish and Grayson are going to be our TOR SP types the next 4 years.  We just need to fill out the rest of the rotation and hopefully hit on a "mid rotation" type arm.  Even if just for one season like peak Suarez, or peak Kremer.  

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Otter said:

I have to admit it's pretty concerning to look at this list of the top performing (not necessarily top prospects) pitchers in the lower minors.  Not really much to get excited about....

Really? That's a pretty long list with some pretty nice numbers. This is just A/A+. 

In 2023 we did what the board has been suggesting and drafted a ton of pitchers in the later rounds and now they are working their way up. 

[Frobby]

Now that Bowie’s season is in the books, we can add their pitchers into the mix for Pitcher of the Year. I see four plausible candidates (listed in order of IP):

Alex Pham (24) led the org in IP with 119.   He threw to a 4.24 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB.  Though his season-long numbers aren’t super impressive, he got better each month of the season until the final partial month, with monthly ERA’s of 7.78, 5.64, 4.43, 3.60, 1.69 and 2.35.  He certainly finished on a strong note and seems likely to be in Norfolk’s rotation next year.   

Trace Bright (23) had an up and down year in which he threw 112 innings to a 4.18 ERA, 1.482 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.0 K/BB

Cameron Weston (23) began with four dominant outings at Aberdeen (0.54 ERA) and was quickly promoted to Bowie, where he continued to shine (3.41 ERA).   Overall, he posted a 2.97 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB in 109 IP.   

Though he was exclusively a reliever, Dylan Heid (26) deserves mention.  In 40 relief appearances spanning 62.1 innings, Heid posted a 1.73 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 K/BB.

Of the AA group, I think Weston is clearly the strongest candidate for the Pitcher of the Year award.  Stacking him up against the A+/A candidates listed in the OP, he has more IP than any of them, and a better ERA and WHIP than any of them except Nestor German.   German tops Weston in all four rate categories by a solid margin (1.59 vs. 2.97 ERA, 0.937 vs. 1.009 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 vs. 10.5, 5.3 K/BB vs. 4.0), but pitched far fewer innings, 109 to 73.2.  There’s also the fact that Weston was promoted in May, whereas German was not promoted until August.  On the other hand, German’s A+ numbers were just as impressive as his low A numbers, and in some ways, even more impressive.   

It’s a tough call, but I’d say that Weston is the leader in the clubhouse, with the AAA pitchers to be considered next week when Norfolk’s season ends.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Now that Bowie’s season is in the books, we can add their pitchers into the mix for Pitcher of the Year. I see four plausible candidates (listed in order of IP):

Alex Pham (24) led the org in IP with 119.   He threw to a 4.24 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB.  Though his season-long numbers aren’t super impressive, he got better each month of the season until the final partial month, with monthly ERA’s of 7.78, 5.64, 4.43, 3.60, 1.69 and 2.35.  He certainly finished on a strong note and seems likely to be in Norfolk’s rotation next year.   

Trace Bright (23) had an up and down year in which he threw 112 innings to a 4.18 ERA, 1.482 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.0 K/BB

Cameron Weston (23) began with four dominant outings at Aberdeen (0.54 ERA) and was quickly promoted to Bowie, where he continued to shine (3.41 ERA).   Overall, he posted a 2.97 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB in 109 IP.   

Though he was exclusively a reliever, Dylan Heid (26) deserves mention.  In 40 relief appearances spanning 62.1 innings, Heid posted a 1.73 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 K/BB.

Of the AA group, I think Weston is clearly the strongest candidate for the Pitcher of the Year award.  Stacking him up against the A+/A candidates listed in the OP, he has more IP than any of them, and a better ERA and WHIP than any of them except Nestor German.   German tops Weston in all four rate categories by a solid margin (1.59 vs. 2.97 ERA, 0.937 vs. 1.009 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 vs. 10.5, 5.3 K/BB vs. 4.0), but pitched far fewer innings, 109 to 73.2.  There’s also the fact that Weston was promoted in May, whereas German was not promoted until August.  On the other hand, German’s A+ numbers were just as impressive as his low A numbers, and in some ways, even more impressive.   

It’s a tough call, but I’d say that Weston is the leader in the clubhouse, with the AAA pitchers to be considered next week when Norfolk’s season ends.  

The Orioles like to try and give this award to someone considered a prospect so McDermott and Povich can't be ruled out despite their partial seasons there. Brandon Young should definitely be in the running though.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles like to try and give this award to someone considered a prospect so McDermott and Povich can't be ruled out despite their partial seasons there. Brandon Young should definitely be in the running though.

At this point Povich has almost as many innings in Baltimore (69.0) as at Norfolk (77.2), so I’m guessing they won’t consider him a candidate.   McDermott definitely is, despite his one game in Baltimore and subsequent injury.   He still leads our minor leaguers in strikeouts despite all the time he’s missed!   He did win the award last year and I don’t know if they want to double up.   Young should be a candidate, and I’ll get into him after he makes his final start of the year.  

[Sports Guy]

Very meh list

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Very meh list

It wasn't an impressive list before Elias traded some away.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Very meh list

I think there are a lot of pitchers who made progress this year and may help the major league team some day, but there don’t appear to be a lot of high ceiling guys who could be TOR or even MOR pitchers.  

Saying that, sometimes pitchers surprise you.  Nobody gave John Means a second thought until he showed up in the majors and was effective.