A look ahead to the 2025 payroll

[Warehouse]

9 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

We traded our comp a pick as part of the package for Burnes. So I think the answer is yes unless qualifying offer comp picks are different than the market size competitive balance picks. 

Yes, qualifying offer comp picks (which can’t be traded) are different than competitive balance picks (which can).

[Rbiggs2525]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can't trade them.

Yes my mistake I thought those were eligible. They may be eligible after winter meetings. Manfred seems to like the idea of making more picks available for trade.

[Just Regular]

It is powerfully convenient to say Ryan, but in the next couple few weeks we'll get our last view of O'Hearn v. Mountcastle, which the Cowser-like PA portion necessary for Coby Mayo's RoY candidacy needs solved.

Mountcastle's right handedness and willing to put on a Powerpuff suit I think gives him the edge heading down the final stretch.    I believe Mountcastle is probably also a better 1B partner for Mayo as they have some kind of Lee May-Eddie Murray job share early next season.

The 2025 lineup transitions are I think limited to Basallo for the backup catcher (and then he'll squeeze the 1B/DH duo), and if Mullins can sustain himself as a superior option to Fabian/EBJ for another October.

This time next year I'm hopeful the injury gods are kind and Adley, Basallo, Mountcastle, Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, EBJ, Kjerstad and Basallo are 11 individuals monopolizing all of the Orioles plate appearances at least four more Octobers.    I believe Mountcastle is nearer to the "Elias Generation" group of players heart, so he'll get an edge on Hays and O'Hearn when push really comes to shove as the #RisingTide starts to crest.

Will O'Hearn's option give value to rate another Gregory Soto type decent reliever in trade?

[Bahama O's Fan]

I would bring McCann back on a one year deal

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I would bring McCann back on a one year deal

I'm kind of rooting for not McCann, nothing about the individual player but I think the Sarasota backup catcher's prominence is the main leading indicator we'll get this winter of the 2025 Samuel Basallo strategy.

I hope after living through 2 Octobers of Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo arguably being under seasoned for their first pennant races that Basallo can have the Adley timeline instead of the 44 active roster days.

In 2026 EBJ can put up a very gaudy SB number coming off his 44 active roster days that should play well for that year's RoY competition key to sustaining a large supply of Griff O'Ferrall's for the pipeline.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I'm kind of rooting for not McCann, nothing about the individual player but I think the Sarasota backup catcher's prominence is the main leading indicator we'll get this winter of the 2025 Samuel Basallo strategy.

I hope after living through 2 Octobers of Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo arguably being under seasoned for their first pennant races that Basallo can have the Adley timeline instead of the 44 active roster days.

In 2026 EBJ can put up a very gaudy SB number coming off his 44 active roster days that should play well for that year's RoY competition key to sustaining a large supply of Griff O'Ferrall's for the pipeline.

I think I've gotten pretty good at deciphering Just Regular posts but this one is too much for me. Can anyone make sense of this one? I get that bringing back McCann would mean we don't have to rush Basallo but after that I'm lost.

[Just Regular]

26 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think I've gotten pretty good at deciphering Just Regular posts but this one is too much for me. Can anyone make sense of this one? I get that bringing back McCann would mean we don't have to rush Basallo but after that I'm lost.

Mike Elias has irritated Adley Rutschman in all 3 of his MLB seasons trying to extract "more retained value" for his boss's bottom line, and wonders why Adley isn't excited to sign away club options on his entire career.    Gunnar Henderson too.

It might be a nice gesture to work Basallo in a little earlier next year because adjusting to MLB competition is very hard.

James McCann is pretty cool, and I hope he can find more opportunity to further his career next season than playing backup for the league's best starter.

EBJ isn't as promising as Basallo, but he is good enough to have a fair chance for 2026 Rookie of the Year in the final season of this CBA, especially with the counting stats boost the 2026 Orioles lineup will give.

After that who knows what the rules will be, but definitely top athletes will love geeks figuring stuff out to determine how their careers should progress.

[Sports Guy]

On 9/20/2024 at 10:13 AM, Sports Guy said:

This season is far from over but that doesn't mean we can't walk and chew gum at the same time.

This is going to be a very interesting offseason. The Os have a lot of spots likely secured for 2025 already and yet there is plenty of uncertainty as well.

Barring a trade, these guys are definitely on the team next year:

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo*, Kjerstad, Westburg, Cowser, Urias, Eflin, GRod, Kremer, Felix, Perez, DC, Rogers and Cano.  That is 16 of your 26 man roster. The salaries for those 16 players will total around $46M, give or take.

With those 16 players, you have your entire starting IF (including C), 2 OFers, 3 or 4 starting pitchers, 4 or 5 relievers (depending on Rogers) and your key bench guy.

*Mayo potentially could start in the minors since he has looked  bad this year but its a SSS and I think they are committed to him and Im not sure going to the minors is going to be some major help for him.  But he will be on the active roster at some point next year.

The Os also have the ability to keep (meaning they are under team control...salary estimates following player) Cedric Mullins (8.5M), Mountcastle (5.5M), OHearn (8M option), G Soto (6M), Dominguez (8M option...has 500K buyout), Mateo (3.2M), Akin (2.5M) and Webb (2.2M).

For your 10 remaining roster spots, you need a back up C, 1 starting OFer, 5 pitchers and 3 other offensive players.

Some of the relievers I listed will be brought back but others likely traded. Those are cheap contracts but the O's need to add another legit high leverage arm and someone(s) will be left off because of that.

Either way, the team has plenty of money to add to this team given the low payroll of those definitely back.  Also, keep in mind Bradish will be on the payroll next year and I am assuming they will non tender Tyler Wells. Depending on his status, it is possible they bring him back but not sure I see the point.

Having so many cheap players on the roster, many of whom will be cheap for a while, gives you so much flexibility.

Also, it’s certainly possible that some of the players  I listed in the definite 16 will be traded, which will open up a spot or more.

Edit: Meant to talk about Povich and McDermott. They could enter in this equation as well. Could be trade bait, could be starters, could be relievers. Lots of moving parts.

Edit 2: Forgot to mention  Suarez, who also factors here. Would assume he’s back next year but not sure what role. You have to upgrade on this staff, so you can’t keep everyone. If we want to say he’s kept (fair assumption) than someone else had to go.

Bumping this now that the season is over.

Lots of decisions to make.