Orioles vs Tigers/KC (Wild Card series)

[OrioleintheATL]

100% Detroit.  I laugh at anyone who wants to see KC instead.   Anyone saying they'd rather play KC can only be becuase Detroit has been hot since the All-star break.  That's it.  But.....if you choose that as your argument, then you are excusing them or sucking for ALL of their play before the ASB.  

 

So help me here, if you want KC instead, what part of KC looks weaker:

KC team batting avg  for an entire season is .250.  Detroit's is .235 for the season so...........

KC has hit more HR's, KC team OPS is .714, Detroit is .686; KC better slugging, KC averages more runs, KC has stolen 85% more bases so..........

Detroit has a slightly better team ERA and a slightly better team WHIP.  KC has two STUD starters, Detroit has one and then smoke and mirrors, opener/bulk pitcher clown show that will catch up with them in the playofs or really in any game where they don't get completely fortunate and have it work perfectly (rarely).

Yes, they beat us 4 out of the recent six games but having watched every minute of all of them, it easily could have been 4-2 or better in our favor.   KC has alot more talent and is defintely the tougher out.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OrioleintheATL said:

100% Detroit.  I laugh at anyone who wants to see KC instead.   Anyone saying they'd rather play KC can only be becuase Detroit has been hot since the All-star break.  That's it.  But.....if you choose that as your argument, then you are excusing them or sucking for ALL of their play before the ASB.  

 

So help me here, if you want KC instead, what part of KC looks weaker:

KC team batting avg  for an entire season is .250.  Detroit's is .235 for the season so...........

KC has hit more HR's, KC team OPS is .714, Detroit is .686; KC better slugging, KC averages more runs, KC has stolen 85% more bases so..........

Detroit has a slightly better team ERA and a slightly better team WHIP.  KC has two STUD starters, Detroit has one and then smoke and mirrors, opener/bulk pitcher clown show that will catch up with them in the playofs or really in any game where they don't get completely fortunate and have it work perfectly (rarely).

 

 

 

You could have just said that KC has a run differential of +93 while Detroit is at +45.

Saved you some typing.

[LookitsPuck]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You could have just said that KC has a run differential of +93 while Detroit is at +45.

Saved you some typing.

That run differential difference isn’t far off from one another. It’s also not reflective of the state of the teams the last 2+ months. The Tigers didn’t even have Parker Meadows or Kerry Carpenter for half the season. And the Royals lost some key players and arms.

Edited 6 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[LGOrioles]

Yeah easily picking Detroit of the two. They’ve been extremely fortunate/lucky/timely on both sides of the ball. CHW should’ve just had a one out triple in the first. The umpires called a dead ball, thinking a fan reached over and touched the ball, even though he didn’t. Most likely saved them a run. The magic ride continues for them. 

Their position players are extremely average, they have one amazing starter and then solid but not spectacular relievers/bulk guys, and you can almost eliminate their far and away best hitter by using the 4 LHP’s in the pen. If you think they’re going to continue being the most clutch team in the league, they’re a problem. If you don’t think that’s predictive, they are very beatable. Doesn’t mean the Orioles can’t lose to them, but they shouldn’t. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

That run differential difference isn’t far off from one another. It’s also not reflective of the state of the teams the last 2+ months. The Tigers didn’t even have Parker Meadows or Kerry Carpenter for half the season. And the Royals lost some key players and arms.

I'm just saying that it's easier and more informative to point at the run differential than to talk about a 15 point spread in batting average.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just saying that it's easier and more informative to point at the run differential than to talk about a 15 point spread in batting average.

Oh, for sure. Batting average means squadouche. 

[Frobby]

On 9/26/2024 at 7:36 PM, Baseball fandom said:

The thing about Kremer is as inconsistent as he is the man does come up big in big games. Yeah I don't want to go about this cowardly but man Skubal is something else and if the Orioles drop that game it would be nice to have Eflin and Burnes for the next 2. Not going to happen anyway. Obviously the Orioles will throw their best 2 the first 2 games 

Detroit hasn’t scored a run off Burnes in 14 innings this year, so I’m not reluctant to match him against Skubal.  

[e16bball]

Don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything quite like this. Detroit’s most used hitters and pitchers since August 1:

 

Of their 7 most utilized hitters, the lowest BABIP is .328. All 7 of those marks would rank in the top 25 in baseball over the course of the full season, and 5 of them would be squarely in the top 10.

Predictably, they’re mostly getting vastly better results than their contact quality would expect. Comparing expected stats to actual, you have Vierling (actual BA 27 points higher than xBA), McKinstry (+26), Meadows (+20), Carpenter (+19), and Torkelson (+10) all hitting at least 10 points better than their expected average. That is, as one might be inclined to say, outrageous fortune.

On top of that, all 8 of their most used pitchers are also (roughly) outpitching their peripherals. Brieske, Hanifee, Holton, and even Foley are all getting results that massively exceed what the metrics expect their performance has warranted. 

In short, this is a team that is playing pretty well, but they’re also getting extremely lucky. In theory, that should be a good thing for us, as their likely opponent next week. But there’s no real reason why this remarkable run of charmed results would just instantly stop because the playoffs have started — so I guess it’s in the eye of the beholder.

[Jagwar]

On 9/26/2024 at 12:15 PM, Tony-OH said:

This is being discussed in various threads but thought it makes sense to just get the conversation going for the Wild Card Series. 

Barring a meltdown and either the Tigers or KC not losing out, the Orioles are pretty well locked into the #1 wildcard seed now so they will get three home games starting on Tuesday, October 1st. Their last game is Sunday against the Twins. 

I'd imagine that Eflin gets game game one and Burnes gets game two since you probably don't want to give Eflin 7 days off between starts, and Burnes has pitched really well this year on 6 days rest. 

Game 3 is probably going to be Kremer, but he'll be on a short leash. 

So who would you rather see us play? 

Do you think they'll push Eflin back to 7-days rest and let Burnes pitch game #1?

Does Bowman make the playoff roster or do they bring up McDermott?

Very interesting. I didn't consider that anybody but Burnes would start Game 1. Don't you think that is what Hyde and Elias were thinking when they lifted him after 5 innings last night?

Edited 5 hours ago by Jagwar

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything quite like this. Detroit’s most used hitters and pitchers since August 1:

 

Of their 7 most utilized hitters, the lowest BABIP is .328. All 7 of those marks would rank in the top 25 in baseball over the course of the full season, and 5 of them would be squarely in the top 10.

Predictably, they’re mostly getting vastly better results than their contact quality would expect. Comparing expected stats to actual, you have Vierling (actual BA 27 points higher than xBA), McKinstry (+26), Meadows (+20), Carpenter (+19), and Torkelson (+10) all hitting at least 10 points better than their expected average. That is, as one might be inclined to say, outrageous fortune.

On top of that, all 8 of their most used pitchers are also (roughly) outpitching their peripherals. Brieske, Hanifee, Holton, and even Foley are all getting results that massively exceed what the metrics expect their performance has warranted. 

In short, this is a team that is playing pretty well, but they’re also getting extremely lucky. In theory, that should be a good thing for us, as their likely opponent next week. But there’s no real reason why this remarkable run of charmed results would just instantly stop because the playoffs have started — so I guess it’s in the eye of the beholder.

I'm sure it's happened but it isn't something that's going to be tracked, particularly if it happened 40 years ago.

Luck is great and maybe it continues and maybe it doesn't.

Those numbers aren't based off of skill.

 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Very interesting. I didn't consider that anybody but Burnes would start Game 1. Don't you think that is what Hyde and Elias were thinking when they lifted him after 5 innings last night?

Now that he was lifted, for sure. I wrote this before he pitched.

[Jagwar]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Now that he was lifted, for sure. I wrote this before he pitched.

Ah my apologies. My swiss cheese brain doesn't always catch key details

[Baseball fandom]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Detroit hasn’t scored a run off Burnes in 14 innings this year, so I’m not reluctant to match him against Skubal.  

I understand but I hate to see it be similar to last night where he's leaving the game trailing 1-0 because Skubal is shutting them down. Bottom line the Orioles won't do it it anyway so it doesn't matter 

[Wavetrapper]

The O’s radio announcers making it sound like this was Povich’s last appearance of the year.  Surely, you don’t leave him off the WC roster and keep a dog like Baker on ??

[andymax]

3 minutes ago, Wavetrapper said:

The O’s radio announcers making it sound like this was Povich’s last appearance of the year.  Surely, you don’t leave him off the WC roster and keep a dog like Baker on ??

If Bryan Baker is on the playoff roster AGAIN I think I'll have to start seriously questioning Elias and his teams' internal analytics.