Wait Till Next Year

[e16bball]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I thought Elias would take this team philosophy from a swing the for fences low OBP bunch to a group more focused on working counts, getting on base, and making contact. It appeared that way to me before the wheels fell off around mid season. I’m sure it’s been exaggerated here but we can’t seem to score runs without hitting dingers. Do you get it now? 

Just to be as clear as possible, when they were doing better early in the season, they were swinging more, not less.

4/1 - 6/30: 7.2 BB%, 49.3% swing rate, 29.8% out of zone swing rate, 22.2% whiff rate, .316 OBP

7/1 - 9/30: 8.7 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.0% out of zone swing rate, 22.4% whiff rate, .315 OBP

2023: 8.4 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.9% out of zone swing rate, 23.0% whiff rate, .321 OBP

They took less walks early in the year, they swung more often at both balls and strikes early in the year, and their OBP/whiff rates were essentially identical in both halves. 

The notion that they turned into free-swinging hackers in the second half — and that’s why they failed — seems to be pretty commonly held here, but it’s not backed by any data. They were actually more patient at the plate in this season’s second half than they’ve ever been during the Adley era.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, e16bball said:

Just to be as clear as possible, when they were doing better early in the season, they were swinging more, not less.

4/1 - 6/30: 7.2 BB%, 49.3% swing rate, 29.8% out of zone swing rate, 22.2% whiff rate, .316 OBP

7/1 - 9/30: 8.7 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.0% out of zone swing rate, 22.4% whiff rate, .315 OBP

2023: 8.4 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.9% out of zone swing rate, 23.0% whiff rate, .321 OBP

They took less walks early in the year, they swung more often at both balls and strikes early in the year, and their OBP/whiff rates were essentially identical in both halves. 

The notion that they turned into free-swinging hackers in the second half — and that’s why they failed — seems to be pretty commonly held here, but it’s not backed by any data. They were actually more patient at the plate in this season’s second half than they’ve ever been during the Adley era.

Thanks for the info ….. The team OBP is a problem in my mind that the Orioles had before Elias that I was hoping he’d fix. our team OBP last year was .321 which was 15th best. This year it was .315 which was 11th overall. So the league appears to be down in that regard across the board. I’m critical about the fact that it seemed like we were constantly relying on a homerun to score runs.

[DirtyBird]

Whose 2025 is closer to their September '24?

Suarez: 6.20 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .960 Opp OPS, 2.88 K/BB

Povich: 2.60 ERA, 0.868 WHIP, .558 Opp OPS, 4.00 K/BB

[Orioles0615]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Whose 2025 is closer to their September '24?

Suarez: 6.20 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .960 Opp OPS, 2.88 K/BB

Povich: 2.60 ERA, 0.868 WHIP, .558 Opp OPS, 4.00 K/BB

Suarez 

[Too Tall]

Next year? Last year's playoff hurt. It was our first in a while and we didn't get any pitching. This year's playoff was downright embarrassing. We got great pitching and looked terrible at the plate. If this year's performance doesn't motivate those that return to improve all aspects of their game, I will be very surprised and disappointed. We were told last year was experience. Well this year was humiliation at all staffing levels. So, if that's part of "the process," learn and grow from it. Anxious to see what changes happen for 2025.

[TommyPickles]

2025: O's get swept in a Wild Card series in Seattle

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

10 hours ago, e16bball said:

Just to be as clear as possible, when they were doing better early in the season, they were swinging more, not less.

4/1 - 6/30: 7.2 BB%, 49.3% swing rate, 29.8% out of zone swing rate, 22.2% whiff rate, .316 OBP

7/1 - 9/30: 8.7 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.0% out of zone swing rate, 22.4% whiff rate, .315 OBP

2023: 8.4 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.9% out of zone swing rate, 23.0% whiff rate, .321 OBP

They took less walks early in the year, they swung more often at both balls and strikes early in the year, and their OBP/whiff rates were essentially identical in both halves. 

The notion that they turned into free-swinging hackers in the second half — and that’s why they failed — seems to be pretty commonly held here, but it’s not backed by any data. They were actually more patient at the plate in this season’s second half than they’ve ever been during the Adley era.

I think the league adjusted to our approach and we didn't readjust.

[interloper]

10 hours ago, e16bball said:

Just to be as clear as possible, when they were doing better early in the season, they were swinging more, not less.

4/1 - 6/30: 7.2 BB%, 49.3% swing rate, 29.8% out of zone swing rate, 22.2% whiff rate, .316 OBP

7/1 - 9/30: 8.7 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.0% out of zone swing rate, 22.4% whiff rate, .315 OBP

2023: 8.4 BB%, 47.8% swing rate, 29.9% out of zone swing rate, 23.0% whiff rate, .321 OBP

They took less walks early in the year, they swung more often at both balls and strikes early in the year, and their OBP/whiff rates were essentially identical in both halves. 

The notion that they turned into free-swinging hackers in the second half — and that’s why they failed — seems to be pretty commonly held here, but it’s not backed by any data. They were actually more patient at the plate in this season’s second half than they’ve ever been during the Adley era.

Well, something changed that isn't readily apparent in these particular data. 

Obviously we know the RISP numbers in the 2nd half are the biggest difference. I think SLG probably declined, too, with the injuries to Westy, etc. And Adley being a non-factor is huge, despite not showing up in these particular numbers. 

[foxfield]

Bautista returns. But can we assume he is the answer still?  He should be. But if we do not add someone who can close we would have an issue. 
 
I don’t assume Grayson is set for a full year either so if you do not resign Burnes I think you need two SP at the top or the line. A #1 and either a #2 or #3. 
 

And I think they need a RH bat with playoff experience and success. 
 

That’s a lot, but that’s what we need in my opinion. 

Edited 2 hours ago by foxfield