2023 vs 2024 Player WAR & 2025 Opportunities

[Pat Kelly]

Taking a look at 2023 vs 2024 FANGRAPHS WAR, some interesting directional info.  (Acknowledging that WAR is not definitivve,  FG uses FIPERA for Pitcher WAR).  Also did this quickly and took some small liberties on player combo's rather than pure position based WAR.  This is meant to be directional to highlight areas of opportunity not a deep dive on all of the data. 

Highlighted 5 key areas:  

1) TOR/Ace role /Burns FA.  All other roles 2-6 are likely fine.  Bradish coming back in 2nd half of 2025 would be a boost but should not be counted on.   Going into 2025 w/o sourcing a 4 WAR type of replacement for Burns would be a huge miss.    Most important decision/move for 2025. 

2) Need to solidify closer and BP which is hopefully Felix coming back strong but should not depend on 2023 dominance.  Need a deep pen with reliable depth in minors and assume more trade deadline reinforcements.   Plenty of good options here, spend $ smartly but don't depend solely on waiver claims. 

3) Adley - none of Elias' 2024 calculus included AR's huge 2nd half dropoff.    If he does not come back strong, may have to re-think AR contribution and make up for any defecit in other positions.  If Gunnar is a 10 and Adley's a 4 WAR we are more than fine, should not assume Adley is a 5+WAR player. 

4) Santander - How is he best replaced?  Elevate Heston and pair him with a RH platoon partner who can back-up all three OF postions.  Not an easy find but needs to be impactful - a RH bat, preferably a high OBP type- that player does not exist in the org in terms of 2025 readiness.     Supposedly that's why Mayo is so highly valued as a RH  bat which is why not developing him as an OFer is curious. 

5) Jackson Holliday - Biggest upside story for 2025.  Expect to see major improvement and the type of bat the lineup needs.  Should be settled in, got to experience the post season without playing but a lot of the Elias' plan/process is dependent on JH becoming a very good player. 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Pat Kelly