Snell vs Burnes

[Spy Fox]

On 10/9/2024 at 7:21 PM, bpilktree67 said:

All this talk about needing frontline pitching for the playoffs and then watching guys like Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, Mathew Boyd, dominating.  BTW what the heck got into Quintana who looked awful vs us then since that game has given up 3 ER in his last 45 innings including 0 in 2 starts in playoffs.  

I mostly agree with you. Flaherty/Manaea winning the first two NLCS games are other examples of how you don't need a rotation full of guys you thought were aces in April. 

But, watching Cobb vs Rodon tonight is an example of the flipside-- how paying for elite arms can provide playoff dividends even if there are bumps in the road. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 10/9/2024 at 7:21 PM, bpilktree67 said:

All this talk about needing frontline pitching for the playoffs and then watching guys like Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, Mathew Boyd, dominating.  BTW what the heck got into Quintana who looked awful vs us then since that game has given up 3 ER in his last 45 innings including 0 in 2 starts in playoffs.  

Colder weather. Pitches start to move more versus the summer time with the heavy/humid air. 

Also, there was a thread on here about Matt Boyd on a milb deal last offseason. It got poo poo’d. Just goes to show… there’s no such thing as a bad milb deal. 

[Allan Bryant]

On 10/9/2024 at 2:19 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

My guess is that Elias currently views the 2025 rotation as 4/5 full, with Eflin, GrayRod, Kremer, and Rogers, and that he is only planning to add one established SP, albeit somebody of the TOR type, i.e. Burnes, Snell, Fried, Crochet, etc.

While I agree with your statement about Elias's views , I believe it would be a mistake for him to overlook rotation’s shortcomings .

[1fingerwillie]

4 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

While I agree with your statement about Elias's views , I believe it would be a mistake for him to overlook rotation’s shortcomings .

I just don't see it that way. If we resign Burnes or sign someone like Burnes we have a top three of:

1) Burnes (or replacement)

2) Eflin

3) Grayson

That is excellent in my opinion.

Kremer has proven to be a serviceable number 4. 

Then we have Suarez (potentially), Povich, McDermott, and Rogers fighting it out for the 5th spot.

And that is not even considering that Bradish should be in the rotation by August.

It all comes down to whether Elias lands a TOR starter for me. 

[ChuckS]

I think Burnes will get 250 and Snell will get at least 200. 

I would take Max Fried at 5/150 over either of them. 

[Fiver6565]

I’m curious how Snell will get a huge contract this year after he couldn’t last year, coming off a CY season. Has the market really changed that much?  

[LookitsPuck]

On 10/9/2024 at 2:19 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

My guess is that Elias currently views the 2025 rotation as 4/5 full, with Eflin, GrayRod, Kremer, and Rogers, and that he is only planning to add one established SP, albeit somebody of the TOR type, i.e. Burnes, Snell, Fried, Crochet, etc.

If Elias is immediately slotting in Rogers in the rotation, he's off his rocker. Rogers should be looked at as a depth arm because that velocity drop is extremely concerning (he was barely hitting 88-89 in the minors and even in the majors when sent down). Rogers should be in competition for the 5th slot *at best*. 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

While I agree with your statement about Elias's views , I believe it would be a mistake for him to overlook rotation’s shortcomings .

I’m not addressing him directly…counting on Rogers to fill a slot in your rotation is lunacy.

[Roll Tide]

46 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I’m curious how Snell will get a huge contract this year after he couldn’t last year, coming off a CY season. Has the market really changed that much?  

In 6 seasons not counting the Covid year Snell has 30+ starts only twice. He averages in the low 20s and it’s hard to count on him for anymore than 20. I’m not sure who’d want to pay 30 million per over a 4,5,6 year period for that.

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

In 6 seasons not counting the Covid year Snell has 30+ starts only twice. He averages in the low 20s and it’s hard to count on him for anymore than 20. I’m not sure who’d want to pay 30 million per over a 4,5,6 year period for that.

Right, that's my point.  And not only the starts, but the IP per start aren't very good either.  He's an excellent pitcher if you need 4 innings, I don't see paying $35M/year for that.  IF we ever sign a true 'ace', that guy needs to be an absolute horse for you, if you ask me.  A guy who is certainly going 6 the vast majority of the time, and you have a reasonable expectation of 7 for several starts per year.  Snell is not that.  Hell Burnes was barely the second part of that, but at least he was throwing up quality starts over and over again.

[ChuckS]

2 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

I’m curious how Snell will get a huge contract this year after he couldn’t last year, coming off a CY season. Has the market really changed that much?  

These are good points, but the market doesn't always make sense.  If his agent is hunting a 150 million dollar contract instead of a 250 million contract, maybe he's able to get multiple teams bidding for him.  When the asking price is too high, it's harder to bring teams to the table. 

He pitched better this season than his CY year (WHIP was not insignificantly lower).  I think he'll get 30-40 mil AAV.  Whether that's 3 or 5 seasons is anyone's guess.  I don't want him at what he will likely cost, but some team will pay up. 

[theobird]

If we are actually in the market for a TOR starter, I think we should be all over bringing Burnes back. Snell is excellent, but no durability. Fried is a step below Snell. Burnes is the kind of horse we can actually call an ace at the top of our rotation. 

Burnes, Grayson, Eflin, Kremer and Povich is more than good. And if Bradisch can come back healthy, he is nearly an ace himself. I want Burnes back.

[Billy F-Face3]

While I do think we need a solid left hander in the rotation, Burnes has proven himself to be the most durable and reliable. Snell has a lot of games in barely goes 5 innings. Burnes has a lot of games he gets into the 7th inning and he knows how to keep himself healthy while successful.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

Right, that's my point.  And not only the starts, but the IP per start aren't very good either.  He's an excellent pitcher if you need 4 innings, I don't see paying $35M/year for that.  IF we ever sign a true 'ace', that guy needs to be an absolute horse for you, if you ask me.  A guy who is certainly going 6 the vast majority of the time, and you have a reasonable expectation of 7 for several starts per year.  Snell is not that.  Hell Burnes was barely the second part of that, but at least he was throwing up quality starts over and over again.

Burnes is a #1 every 5th day pitcher. I’m hoping they have the sense to keep him