Mountcastle for Robbie Ray: Who says "No"?

[bpilktree67]

Is Robbie Ray this years Chris Sale.  The Braves made the move for often injured but talented Sale last offseason many people thought was a big gamble but it worked perfectly.  It is definitely high risk high reward type decision.  I am still more looking at Mountcastle for Jordan Montgomery as a better option.  

[Aristotelian]

Why would the O's do this? Ray should have negative contract value at this point. 

There was also that "pitch the f***ing ball Robbie" incident with Hyde. I kinda doubt he's on our shopping list.

 

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some folks really want Mountcastle off the team.

Yeah I am pretty down on Mountcastle but even I say no to this one. 

[24fps]

6 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Yet also really want a new RH bat

Not to mention take grave and possibly personal offense at Mountcastle's mere 114 career OPS+.

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

In all reality, what do you think the odds are of him being a top of rotation caliber starter again in his career?

He was out with TJ. That’s why the 34 IP.

Take a look at those game logs. I see TOR results. He had two clunkers. Obviously. Coming back from TJ, but dude was dominant with K/BB, and K/9.

Would you guys sign up for those results through 7 games for Bradish at the end of 2025?  I would.

I’m not all in on Ray. I think it was SG that posted Snell vs Burnes.  So that made me remember that Robbie Ray looked good last year in his return.

Eflin, Grayson, Ray, Kremer, Suarez

Solid rotation. It would be nice to get Povich in there, but as a #6 I’m sure he will get 20-25 GS.

If Ray were a FA, and showed what he did coming off TJ, what type of deal would he get in this market?  2 year 30ish or 1 year 20?  So his salary might be a slight overpay, but I don’t think SF is looking to dump him or any portion of it.  IMO.

Resource allocation for both teams.  We get to trade an asset from a position  of depth.  See Mayo.  SF gets to trade SP for a 1B MOO.

Edited October 17 by sportsfan8703

[waroriole]

If SF would eat about $20M this might make more sense. Ray came back pretty strong last year. K rate actually climbed, but so did BB rate. His GB rate was noticeably lower, and as a result his HR/9 went up. If the O’s feel that’s correctable, this is a fair trade. 
 

Of course, I’m sure they’d look at this as a Burnes replacement instead of in addition to Burnes. 

[Aristotelian]

38 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He was out with TJ. That’s why the 34 IP.

Take a look at those game logs. I see TOR results. He had two clunkers. Obviously. Coming back from TJ, but dude was dominant with K/BB, and K/9.

Would you guys sign up for those results through 7 games for Bradish at the end of 2025?  I would.

I’m not all in on Ray. I think it was SG that posted Snell vs Burnes.  So that made me remember that Robbie Ray looked good last year in his return.

Eflin, Grayson, Ray, Kremer, Suarez

Solid rotation. It would be nice to get Povich in there, but as a #6 I’m sure he will get 20-25 GS.

If Ray were a FA, and showed what he did coming off TJ, what type of deal would he get in this market?  2 year 30ish or 1 year 20?  So his salary might be a slight overpay, but I don’t think SF is looking to dump him or any portion of it.  IMO.

Resource allocation for both teams.  We get to trade an asset from a position  of depth.  See Mayo.  SF gets to trade SP for a 1B MOO.

You could say the same about Means and he blew out his arm again after four starts. He isn't worth anywhere close to $50M let alone $50m plus Mountcastle. Ray has TOR upside but he really has had two great years mixed with a lot of mediocrity. Why not just spend a little more and get Snell?

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You could say the same about Means and he blew out his arm again after four starts. He isn't worth anywhere close to $50M let alone $50m plus Mountcastle. Ray has TOR upside but he really has had two great years mixed with a lot of mediocrity. Why not just spend a little more and get Snell?

They could all blow out their arm. That’s hardly a reason to not sign or trade for someone. 

[LookitsPuck]

The Orioles. Mounty has more value than Ray. Ray has negative value with the injuries, lackluster performance, and contract.

[Warehouse]

15 hours ago, KojiSplit said:

If he was a free agent he would be looking at 1 year 4-5mill with incentives.

Ray may not be worth $50 million but to say he would be looking at a $4 to $5 million guarantee is silly. 

Liam Hicks was guaranteed $10 million last year. Lucas Giolito was guaranteed $39 million. Brandon Woodruff was guaranteed $18 million. James Paxton was guaranteed $8 million.

[LookitsPuck]

33 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Ray may not be worth $50 million but to say he would be looking at a $4 to $5 million guarantee is silly. 

Liam Hicks was guaranteed $10 million last year. Lucas Giolito was guaranteed $39 million. Brandon Woodruff was guaranteed $18 million. James Paxton was guaranteed $8 million.

Yeah, I have to agree here. 

That said, Ray is 33. Coming off a near 5 FIP season, but the big thing to keep in mind is he only threw ~30 innings. He's basically Walker Buehler, but older. That means: hurt the previous year/this year partially, pitched poorly with some glimpses of turning it around, but has big question marks around health and effectiveness.

We can look at arbitration for Buehler and basically he got the same salary he did the previous year when hurt ($8m). But that's arbitration and not the open market.

Woodruff is an interesting comp, because even though it's $18m, that was spread over 3 seasons: $2.5 for 2024 just to pay him to essentially rehab and get ready for 2025, $5m for 2025 just in case he's healthy, with anywhere from $10m (buyout) to $20m in 2026 in the event that the Brewers saw enough to keep him around.

I reckon a guy like Ray would probably get something like a $12-$15m for 1 year with a mutual option for 2026, if he was on the open market. Definitely more than $4-$5m. But let's be frank here. Ray hasn't exactly been the model of consistency. Even when he pitched in a pitcher's ballpark w/ Seattle in 2022 prior to his injury in 2023, he had a FiP over 4 and an ERA nearly close to that. He's always had strikeout stuff, but the home run rate would make Chris Tillman blush (a 1.6 HR/9 since 2019). 

Basically, what would you pay for a guy with home run concerns, big strikeout stuff, a career ERA/FIP of 4, with injury concerns who is also 33? That's like a fringe Tier 2/Tier 3 guy, IMHO.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Why would the O's do this? Ray should have negative contract value at this point. 

There was also that "pitch the f***ing ball Robbie" incident with Hyde. I kinda doubt he's on our shopping list.

 

I doubt an "In the moment of competition" beef would stop the Orioles from acquiring a player. 

[joelala]

I think SF would have to kick in about 10 or 15 mil but I think this is a solid trade. As others have said, Ray had TJ, hence the low IP last two years. Maybe SF would also be willing to throw in a prospect we like instead of the money. This is a good, outside the box trade and I’d be excited.  

[sportsfan8703]

Ray fits the bill of a guy with 1-2 years remaining on his deal.  I would think those types would be the fall back option if we don't bring Burnes back.  Others include

1 Year Remaining - Tyler Anderson, Nick Martinez, German Marquez, Cal Quantrill, Jon Gray

2 Years Remaining - Ray, Kyle Freeland, Sandy Alcantara, Freddy Peralta, Patrick Sandoval, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers.

After looking at that, I can sort of see why Elias traded for Rogers and his two years remaining.  Those names also make Ray look like the "best" option.  "Best" ceiling.  

It always seems like there are "better" options out there, but with the new wild card teams, it's not a buyer's market anymore.  Everyone is "contending".  

Edited October 17 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

There’s really not much out there that in terms of pitchers with one year remaining on their deals. So then that expands trade possibilities to guys with 2 years remaining. Free Agents generally get 3+ year deals if they have any type of value versus coming off the down years that 1 year deal guys get. Combine that with the Giants being like $20 million over the luxury tax threshold and Ray seems likely he will get dealt. 

Maybe it would be more of a salary dump and wouldn’t cost us Mountcastle, but that makes an awful lot of sense considering the LH bats they have and that they would want an MLB piece coming back in return. 

If we can’t bring back Burnes, and he’s likely the first free agent pitcher to sign, then I could see this going down at the winter meetings. 

Ray has CY Young potential and is further removed from TJ. 

Mayo is the direct replacement for Mounty on the 2025 roster. 

Our rotation is then Grayson, Eflin, Ray, Kremer, and Suarez. Our depth behind that is Povich, Rogers, and McDermott. Maybe Wells and Bradish at some point, but they shouldn’t be counted on. 

That’s enough depth and talent to make the playoffs. Heck, Ray could have a big bounce back given it’s his first full off season off of TJS, and we have the WALL.