Rubenstein: Orioles will speed up the effort to get to a World Series

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Too Tall said:

Oriole fans are coming off a "bad marrage." The tendencey is to view through that lens. It will take a while for some to "believe." If they ever do. All that is understandable. Words do matter but actions build reputations. I've said before, the next few months will be telling. Just a caution - free agent signings or extentions take two to tango. Neither is an easy market and agents do matter. I'm happy to be with a new ownership group and see were we go. At least we are not hearing we can't. 

Well, bad marriage or not, it's a bit more complicated. Baltimore is a small to medium size media market. I would have easily said medium media market had the Nationals never came to DC, but there's a big reason why attendance fell off a cliff in 2006 down to 2.1m after averaging over 3m from 2001 and before. Yeah, the years from 2002-2004, the O's stunk terribly. And we know that losing affects attendance negatively more than anything. But there's a reason why the closest we've seen to 2.5m fans (which is still well over a half million under what they averaged prior to stinking and the Nats coming to town:

The Nats coming to town. Regardless how you want to take it (call it TV, ticket/concession prices, etc.), losing 500k-1m potential fans is nearly 6-12k fans/game. That's sizable. 

I say all this not to forgive the Angelos era which was marked by meddling, petty behaviour, and mismanagement under Peter (although he did pony up $160m+ when the O's were winning) or overall cheapness and petty behaviour under John, but to say that there isn't a world in which Rubenstein spends like the Top 5-6 teams.

My expectation is that this club should spend like the Top 10-15 teams, though. The average payroll in 2024 was around ~$165m. Top 10-15 would get them anywhere from $165m-$200m. I figure $200m is probably the most what we could expect given the media market the O's play in.

[TradeAngelos]

So I just went back and did all the numbers again for payrolls and World Series winners, and teams that got to the World Series.

World Series Winner
Team	Total	Rate	24 Payroll
Top 3	12/35	34.3	256
Top 5	14/35	40	242
Top 8	18/35	51.4	226
Top 10	21/35	60	207
Top 12	27/35	77.1	176
Top 15	29/35	82.9	144
Top 18	33/35	94.3	133
Top 20	34/35	97.1	123
Top 25	35/35	100	101
Top 30	35/35	100
World Series Loser
Team	Total	Rate	24 Payroll
Top 3	6/35	17.1	256
Top 5	10/35	28.6	242
Top 8	14/35	40	226
Top 10	17/35	48.6	207
Top 12	20/35	57.1	176
Top 15	25/35	71.4	144
Top 18	25/35	71.4	133
Top 20	29/35	82.9	123
Top 25	32/35	91.4	101
Top 30	35/35	100

 

So I think what we can take from this is top 18 payroll is absolute bare minimum, but really it is top 15 needed to have even a small chance at getting over the hump. In 2024 that was right in that 140m range payroll wise. But then you go to top 12 and it is still at 77%, which was 176m in 2024. So only 17% of teams in top 15 won it all and 5.7% in the top 18. Top 18 payroll would be a miracle. Top 15 still a very long shot. Top 12 at least gives you some shot, but still not a very good one. That's just the way it is in MLB. You really need top 8-10 to give yourself a good shot in a small time frame window with similar core of players. 

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, TradeAngelos said:

So I just went back and did all the numbers again for payrolls and World Series winners, and teams that got to the World Series.

 

World Series Winner
Team	Total	Rate	24 Payroll
Top 3	12/35	34.3	256
Top 5	14/35	40	242
Top 8	18/35	51.4	226
Top 10	21/35	60	207
Top 12	27/35	77.1	176
Top 15	29/35	82.9	144
Top 18	33/35	94.3	133
Top 20	34/35	97.1	123
Top 25	35/35	100	101
Top 30	35/35	100
World Series Loser
Team	Total	Rate	24 Payroll
Top 3	6/35	17.1	256
Top 5	10/35	28.6	242
Top 8	14/35	40	226
Top 10	17/35	48.6	207
Top 12	20/35	57.1	176
Top 15	25/35	71.4	144
Top 18	25/35	71.4	133
Top 20	29/35	82.9	123
Top 25	32/35	91.4	101
Top 30	35/35	100

 

So I think what we can take from this is top 18 payroll is absolute bare minimum, but really it is top 15 needed to have even a small chance at getting over the hump. In 2024 that was right in that 140m range payroll wise. But then you go to top 12 and it is still at 77%, which was 176m in 2024. So only 17% of teams in top 15 won it all and 5.7% in the top 18. Top 18 payroll would be a miracle. Top 15 still a very long shot. Top 12 at least gives you some shot, but still not a very good one. That's just the way it is in MLB. You really need top 8-10 to give yourself a good shot in a small time frame window with similar core of players. 

Baseball desperately needs a hard cap and a floor. Unfortunately, the player's union nixed a deal that included a payroll floor. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Naming rights to T Rowe Price Stadium at Camden Yards confirmed. 

Please say “ha ha just kidding.”?

[TradeAngelos]

3 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Baseball desperately needs a hard cap and a floor. Unfortunately, the player's union nixed a deal that included a payroll floor. 

Tell me about it. Problem is most baseball players don't come from tough financial backgrounds where they are surviving off that paycheck with no backup in place. Even the young Latin players feel like they are beyond rich compared to what they are used to. No pressure. They can wait out the owners. I just wish one time the owners would wait out them, long enough to make some real change at least. But they aren't willing to sacrifice for their future owners, they don't care about them lol. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Tell me about it. Problem is most baseball players don't come from tough financial backgrounds where they are surviving off that paycheck with no backup in place. Even the young Latin players feel like they are beyond rich compared to what they are used to. No pressure. They can wait out the owners. I just wish one time the owners would wait out them, long enough to make some real change at least. But they aren't willing to sacrifice for their future owners, they don't care about them lol. 

I'll keep rooting against the owners.

[LookitsPuck]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll keep rooting against the owners.

I don't really understand why the players would be against a salary floor. I understand them not wanting a salary cap as it potentially hurts star power, but a floor would force owners to spend. But they could also institute a salary cap that is, say, $250m and a floor of $110m. 

For 2024, if there was a salary cap of $250m that'd shed $131m off the payrolls of the Mets, Yankees, Astros, but having a $110m would force:

• The Athletics to spend $47m more
• Pirates $25m
• Rays $22m
• Marlins $13m
• Tigers $11m
• Reds $10m
• Nations $4m
• Guardians $3m

That total would offset the cap payroll lost. And then those numbers go up every year. Ideally those numbers would be closer together, but don't think there's an appetite for that, yet.

I'm a strong player's union guy, but they are really holding the sport back in this regard.

Edited yesterday at 21:29 by LookitsPuck

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

I don't really understand why the players would be against a salary floor. I understand them not wanting a salary cap as it potentially hurts star power, but a floor would force owners to spend. But they could also institute a salary cap that is, say, $250m and a floor of $110m. 

For 2024, if there was a salary cap of $250m that'd shed $131m off the payrolls of the Mets, Yankees, Astros, but having a $110m would force:

• The Athletics to spend $47m more
• Pirates $25m
• Rays $22m
• Marlins $13m
• Tigers $11m
• Reds $10m
• Nations $4m
• Guardians $3m

That total would offset the cap payroll lost. And then those numbers go up every year. Ideally those numbers would be closer together, but don't think there's an appetite for that, yet.

I'm a strong player's union guy, but they are really holding the sport back in this regard.

Because you aren't getting the floor without the ceiling. 

My guess would be that allowing the owners a cap to work with and around would end up lowering their leverage in future negotiations.

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you aren't getting the floor without the ceiling. 

My guess would be that allowing the owners a cap to work with and around would end up lowering their leverage in future negotiations.

The union doesn't want a ceiling either. 

They really should negotiate around what those numbers are. But baseball is a joke right now. Owners can spend next to nothing (see: Athletics, Rays, O's recently, etc.) or they can overspend like woah due to being in massive media markets. And, yeah, teams like the Guardians, O's, etc. can find ways to contend with the big boys, but they're at a disadvantage. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

The union doesn't want a ceiling either. 

They really should negotiate around what those numbers are. But baseball is a joke right now. Owners can spend next to nothing (see: Athletics, Rays, O's recently, etc.) or they can overspend like woah due to being in massive media markets. And, yeah, teams like the Guardians, O's, etc. can find ways to contend with the big boys, but they're at a disadvantage. 

That was what I meant.

If the owners were to agree to a reasonable floor I don't think the players would fight it.

From a personal perspective the spending inequity doesn't bother me as much as the consequences of a cap.  I hate the way the NFL abuses players with the cap and I hate the way NBA players abuse teams with the cap. 

I like the way MLB is right now over the way the NFL or NBA handle it.  (don't know enough about the NHL)

[TradeAngelos]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll keep rooting against the owners.

By rooting against the owners, you are also rooting against the Orioles. 

 

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

So I just went back and did all the numbers again for payrolls and World Series winners, and teams that got to the World Series.

 

World Series Winner
Team	Total	Rate	24 Payroll
Top 3	12/35	34.3	256
Top 5	14/35	40	242
Top 8	18/35	51.4	226
Top 10	21/35	60	207
Top 12	27/35	77.1	176
Top 15	29/35	82.9	144
Top 18	33/35	94.3	133
Top 20	34/35	97.1	123
Top 25	35/35	100	101
Top 30	35/35	100
World Series Loser
Team	Total	Rate	24 Payroll
Top 3	6/35	17.1	256
Top 5	10/35	28.6	242
Top 8	14/35	40	226
Top 10	17/35	48.6	207
Top 12	20/35	57.1	176
Top 15	25/35	71.4	144
Top 18	25/35	71.4	133
Top 20	29/35	82.9	123
Top 25	32/35	91.4	101
Top 30	35/35	100

 

So I think what we can take from this is top 18 payroll is absolute bare minimum, but really it is top 15 needed to have even a small chance at getting over the hump. In 2024 that was right in that 140m range payroll wise. But then you go to top 12 and it is still at 77%, which was 176m in 2024. So only 17% of teams in top 15 won it all and 5.7% in the top 18. Top 18 payroll would be a miracle. Top 15 still a very long shot. Top 12 at least gives you some shot, but still not a very good one. That's just the way it is in MLB. You really need top 8-10 to give yourself a good shot in a small time frame window with similar core of players. 

Good teams have good players. Need to look at top say 8 players from those teams and see how much they made. 
 

Teams also are more aggressive taking on money in trades or via FA if their core is good enough.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

By rooting against the owners, you are also rooting against the Orioles. 

 

Why?  Because the ownership isn't willing to spend?

If a team doesn't want to compete as hard as another team they should be rewarded?

[interloper]

I love that we're talking about Rubenstein being unwilling to spend in a thread where he is quoted as saying he will spend. 

Certainly, we should wait to see if his actions back up his words. No one would dispute that. Any statement beyond that is just arguing for the sake of it IMO.