5 year payroll plan to see how much can be added.

[wildcard]

I am sure the O's are looking at the next 5 years of their payroll and competitiveness.   Can't spend as much as the big boys but must spend enough to win the WS.  Here's my take what Elias is looking at.

Salary in millions. Projections for 2025 from Cots Contracts.

                                     25            26           27           28       29

Gunnar SS                  .75              7            14            21       FA

Westy  3B/LF              .75              .75            6            12        18

Cowser   LF               .75               .75            5            10        15

Kjerstad RF               .74               .75          .75            5         10

Holliday 2B/SS          .74               .75          .75            5         10

Mayo  1B                  .35               .75          .75            .75       5

Adley    C/DH              6                12           18            FA

Basallo   C/1B/DH      -                .74          .75           .75         5

Mullins    CF              8                 FA

Bradfield. CF             -                .74           .74           .74         4

Mounty 1B/DH          6.2           Traded next off season

O'Hearn   DH/1B        6              Traded in July

Mateo   SS/2B/CF    3.3             FA

Urias   3B/2B            3              3.5            FA

McCann  C                4               FA

Rivera 3B/1B/DH       1.5           1.7              2              FA

Liv Soto IF                   .25          .74          .75             .75          1.5

Elfin        SP               18             20             20           FA    signed 2/40

GRod    SP                  .75            5             10            15               FA

Kremer  SP                3                5             9            FA

Suarez   SP/RP         .75             4              7            9                 FA

Povich.  SP               .74            .75          .75           4                   8

Bradish  SP                1.6            3              6            FA

Wells   SP                   2               4            FA

Bautista   RP               1                6            12           FA

G Soto      RP            4.5             FA

Cano   RP                 .75                3             5             7              FA

Coulombe RP           4                 FA

Dominguez. RP         8                 FA

Perez RP                  2.2              3.5          FA

Webb     RP               1.5               3             FA

Akin       RP               1.25              3             FA

Bowman  RP             1.1               FA

Rogers SP/RP            2.5              3.5           FA

McDermott  SP/RP    .4               .74           .75          .75         2

Young     SP/RP         .2               .74           .75          .75         1.5

 Totals (36 players)   96.57       103.15.      120.74       92.5      80

Sure looks like there is room for 35m a year contract.  6/210 for Burnes.

I think the offense needs a change in strategy to get RISP to score.   That is probably the most important addition that can be made for next season's offense.

Edited 22 hours ago by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

Great work. The thought of Gunnar becoming FA pains me!

If we can spend Burnes money I would lean toward Snell but either one would be a nice get by the new owner.

[Sports Guy]

I think some of your numbers are off…That said, the team obviously has a ton of money it can spend both now and long term. 

This has always been the case with these guys and why having this cheap young talent allows you to spend big if you so choose.

[24fps]

The beauty of having young, talented, cheap players is that you can spend strategically while still keeping an eye on sustainablilty.  I think the O's only need a couple of expensive multi-year FA's for 2025 while still being able to factor in raises over the next 3-4 years.

[Sports Guy]

This is also why the Elias small market stuff, w/r/t extensions/big contracts is complete bs.

[TradeAngelos]

One 35m contract? How about 2.

170m payroll would have been 16th in MLB in 2024. We should be closer to 12th or so around 190m IMO, but let's just try to stick to 16th so no one complains about how we can't afford it. 

But this fanbase has been so conditioned to think 100m is the "ceiling" for so long, I wonder if people realize how much money is being spent these days. 

Rubenstein is about to put up or he better shut up. Quotes for the media are great, but they don't win championships. And you allegedly, want to win a championship. You have said it 14 times, so now go do something about it. 

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

One 35m contract? How about 2.

170m payroll would have been 16th in MLB in 2024. We should be closer to 12th or so around 190m IMO, but let's just try to stick to 16th so no one complains about how we can't afford it. 

But this fanbase has been so conditioned to think 100m is the "ceiling" for so long, I wonder if people realize how much money is being spent these days. 

Rubenstein is about to put up or he better shut up. Quotes for the media are great, but they don't win championships. And you allegedly, want to win a championship. You have said it 14 times, so now go do something about it. 

It's clear (to me at least) that $100 million actually was the ceiling for OD 2024, but that had more to do with the team about to be sold than anything else. 

I don't know where you got your 2024 payroll numbers, but PA approved the 10th highest MLB payroll prior to OD 2017 after a very competitive 2016.  What do your number say the equivalent to 10th would have been in 2024?  Around $190-200 million?  However much it is, it's probably unneeded next season given how good the cheap core is.  I'd prefer Elias and Rubenstein take the long view overall, but I agree that it's time to start acting like the team is worth investing in.

[Moose Milligan]

We're gonna find out if it was Angelos or Elias that didn't want to spend.

IMO, Elias didn't get this job by telling him about the exorbitant amount of money he planned on spending.  

[Orioles0615]

41 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're gonna find out if it was Angelos or Elias that didn't want to spend.

IMO, Elias didn't get this job by telling him about the exorbitant amount of money he planned on spending.  

Agreed, I think people are going to be surprised when they realize Angelos is not the only one who doesn’t like to spend. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, TradeAngelos said:

One 35m contract? How about 2.

170m payroll would have been 16th in MLB in 2024. We should be closer to 12th or so around 190m IMO, but let's just try to stick to 16th so no one complains about how we can't afford it. 

But this fanbase has been so conditioned to think 100m is the "ceiling" for so long, I wonder if people realize how much money is being spent these days. 

Rubenstein is about to put up or he better shut up. Quotes for the media are great, but they don't win championships. And you allegedly, want to win a championship. You have said it 14 times, so now go do something about it. 

It has nothing to do with how people are conditioned. Just because you might be able to spend that money doesn’t mean you should.

Way too many people have this belief that spending 35M on a player means all of your problems are solved. Those contracts rarely work out.

And Im not saying the Os should never do something like that but it’s unlikely to work out if/when they do.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It has nothing to do with how people are conditioned. Just because you might be able to spend that money doesn’t mean you should.

Way too many people have this belief that spending 35M on a player means all of your problems are solved. Those contracts rarely work out.

And Im not saying the Os should never do something like that but it’s unlikely to work out if/when they do.

Do you think if the O's would have had a normal amount of injuries this past season they would have went further in the playoff with Burnes on the team?

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think if the O's would have had a normal amount of injuries this past season they would have went further in the playoff with Burnes on the team?

Certainly possible. I do think luck had a lot to do with us not advancing. 

[Jagwar]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think if the O's would have had a normal amount of injuries this past season they would have went further in the playoff with Burnes on the team?

The O's failing to advance were about hitting not pitching (or about Burnes). They gave up 3 runs but only scored 1 run in 2 losses. The injuries were significant and affected decisions. One way they impacted the team is that Elias focused heavily on pitching at the deadline. If Bradish, Means, Wells, Coulombe don't go on the IL, Elias likely would have pursued hitting with his trade chips. 

[oriole]

It’s hard to predict how this off-season will go. Elias has been risk averse while working for Angelos. This last trade deadline he had noticeably become less risk averse (and he looked much worse at his job as well). This off-season is a real test to see how good a GM he actually is. Will he overpay like he did with Rogers or will be able to walk away if he enters stupid contract territory? Elias might only be a good rebuilding type of GM. We don’t know yet.

 

I will say, if not for the injuries then this team gets further. Obvious, I know. But hopefully 2025 will have a normal amount of injuries instead of the almost the whole damn team like 2024. That’s hard to pin on Elias, sometimes it’s just bad luck. 
 

As far as how they spend the money…there’s a few spots that are definite in need of additions. 2-3 SP, RF, and 1B. That’s a lot. You can’t just add a single $35m/yr player and ignore the other holes. The boat still sinks if you only plug one hole and the rest still looks like Swiss cheese. I think there’s probably more than $35m to spend but it’s gotta be done in a way that doesn’t leave multiple spots being filled with Slater/Jimenez level players. 

 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, oriole said:

It’s hard to predict how this off-season will go. Elias has been risk averse while working for Angelos. This last trade deadline he had noticeably become less risk averse (and he looked much worse at his job as well). This off-season is a real test to see how good a GM he actually is. Will he overpay like he did with Rogers or will be able to walk away if he enters stupid contract territory? Elias might only be a good rebuilding type of GM. We don’t know yet.

 

I will say, if not for the injuries then this team gets further. Obvious, I know. But hopefully 2025 will have a normal amount of injuries instead of the almost the whole damn team like 2024. That’s hard to pin on Elias, sometimes it’s just bad luck. 
 

As far as how they spend the money…there’s a few spots that are definite in need of additions. 2-3 SP, RF, and 1B. That’s a lot. You can’t just add a single $35m/yr player and ignore the other holes. The boat still sinks if you only plug one hole and the rest still looks like Swiss cheese. I think there’s probably more than $35m to spend but it’s gotta be done in a way that doesn’t leave multiple spots being filled with Slater/Jimenez level players. 

 

Please explain.  2-3 SP.   Is that 2 or 3 starting pitchers or is that a #2 or #3 starter?