MacPhail on Hobgood

[JTrea81]

So by your logic, if 10 other guys think that a girl is the prettiest girl in the school, and she's making clear she's going to play hard to get, and you happen to think that some other girl is better looking, you should ask the first girl out.

(Disclaimer: No I am not saying that you decide who to ask out based solely on her looks; I'm just trying to keep my analogy simple.)

As I said that was Jordan's call. But the publications don't think Matzek was better because he was more expensive, it's because they though he had more talent. And because he is percieved to have more talent, that's why he wants more money and is "hard to get."

Again I hate bringing it up but Teixeira was "hard to get" too and MacPhail sure didn't try to fight for him now did he? MacPhail has a bias against expensive premium talent. He'd rather sign three lesser players than spend the money for one premium guy, to spread out the risk.

I think what happened to Mark Prior has soured him on spending money for premium talent in the draft and for talent in general. He'll make exceptions, but he won't go "all in" for guys.

[Burg]

As I said that was Jordan's call. But the publications don't think Matzek was better because he was more expensive, it's because they though he had more talent. And because he is percieved to have more talent, that's why he wants more money and is "hard to get."

Again I hate bringing it up but Teixeira was "hard to get" too and MacPhail sure didn't try to fight for him now did he? MacPhail has a bias against expensive premium talent. He'd rather sign three lesser players than spend the money for one premium guy, to spread out the risk.

No you don't. You love to bring it up. It drives 99% of your anti-FO posts.

Once again, a poster named SEVERAL expensive premium talent players that AM signed. Once again, you ignored a post that directly refuted your opinion.

[wickedwitch]

Markakis was a very easy sign. He took below-slot money. That's turned out pretty well.

[JTrea81]

No you don't. You love to bring it up. It drives 99% of your anti-FO posts.

Once again, a poster named SEVERAL expensive premium talent players that AM signed. Once again, you ignored a post that directly refuted your opinion.

Please point this out to me, I must have missed it.

[csgordos]

I am starting to think that JTrea should become a paid Hangout staff member. Who on this board creates more controversy causing more pages, posts and advertisement to be created? Maybe Tony has figured out a way to make the OH last even longer and be more profitable (JTrea). Otherwise I cannot explain or anybody else for that matter can explain what seems to be pretty obvious to the rest of us.

I personally want people who want to be Orioles. I run my own business and don't mind paying for premium talent but if I have to pay more and work my hardest to convince people that I am the right place then I don't want them. Because I have learned over time those people leave the first chance they get, and I never get their best effort because they are only motivated by money. I want people who seek me out to work for me. I guess I am different.

[JTrea81]

Tex was never coming here. How that isn't blatantly obvious to you I'll never understand. MacPhail spent over $100 million on premium talent that was already here. And he'll spend more when we're closer to contending. Where the hell would this organization be right now without MacPhail? The progress that's been made as a whole within the entire organization in less than 3 years is nothing less than stunning, IMO. The good MacPhail has brought so insanely outweighs the bad that it's almost worthless discussing something like his comments on Matt Hobgood. Who cares? Joe Jordan felt he was the best available talent and clearly felt the kid has good character, which has been an recent requirement (and how refreshing that is) for new Orioles. MacPhail is just backing up Jordan.

How is it not obvious what MacPhail has done for the Orioles? From scouting and development, to getting our young guys locked up, to prolific trades and bringing in young talent, to improving international presence, to promotion and PR, to - FINALLY - creating some kind of unified Oriole philosophy... I mean, you can say I have a man crush all you want, and I'll agree 100 times over. The man has saved the franchise without a question of a doubt, in my mind.

Markakis was a bargain IMO, and Roberts was probably market value. Both took discounts IMO to stay, Markakis especially. And both players wanted to stay in some fashion, MacPhail didn't have to try to recruit them as they were already here.

MacPhail is not a good recruiter of talent. He won't go the extra mile to get premium talent to sign. He never has.

I agree he's done a lot for the Orioles, but he's also a competent GM. After the years of incompetence, we finally have an average GM and everybody is willing to anoint him as savior of the franchise. But the truth is he could be doing more to add talent to this team with the resources we have. He's doing a lot of good, but there is more than can be done. We aren't spending money right now, that is clear. Until we start using our resources to try to get on the same level as the Yankees and Red Sox competitively, I'll always say MacPhail isn't doing enough. The Orioles get MASN revenue and probably close to $30 million more in merchandising and television fees just from MLB and then you've got revenue sharing money on top of that. That's money that can be spent to improve this club that just isn't.

MacPhail has a lot of convincing left to do IMO before I'm willing to annoint him the savior like so many have. There's still a lot in his plan that could go wrong and more that he could be doing to get us to where we need to be quicker. Just because he has a plan won't make it a successful one.

[J.D.]

Markakis was a bargain IMO, and Roberts was probably market value. Both took discounts IMO to stay, Markakis especially. And both players wanted to stay in some fashion, MacPhail didn't have to try to recruit them as they were already here.

MacPhail is not a good recruiter of talent. He won't go the extra mile to get premium talent to sign. He never has.

I agree he's done a lot for the Orioles, but he's also a competent GM. After the years of incompetence, we finally have an average GM and everybody is willing to anoint him as savior of the franchise. But the truth is he could be doing more to add talent to this team with the resources we have. He's doing a lot of good, but there is more than can be done. We aren't spending money right now, that is clear. Until we start using our resources to try to get on the same level as the Yankees and Red Sox competitively, I'll always say MacPhail isn't doing enough. The Orioles get MASN revenue and probably close to $30 million more in merchandising and television fees just from MLB and then you've got revenue sharing money on top of that. That's money that can be spent to improve this club that just isn't.

MacPhail has a lot of convincing left to do IMO before I'm willing to annoint him the savior like so many have. There's still a lot in his plan that could go wrong and more that he could be doing to get us to where we need to be quicker.

You have no idea how much that money is, whether it really exists (or just, you know, off-sets the losses that the team probably makes in attendance), or how they're using it. Don't let that get in the way of throwing out random numbers you have no way of verifying but firmly believe in them as facts, though.

[BringBackMagic]

You have no idea how much that money is, whether it really exists (or just, you know, off-sets the losses that the team probably makes in attendance), or how they're using it. Don't let that get in the way of throwing out random numbers you have no way of verifying but firmly believe in them as facts, though.

Stop trying JD.

JTrea is a man of principle. He will never allow things like facts to get in the way of his opinions.

[ChaosLex]

The guy wasn't held in high regard due to the fact as he wasn't as talented as a couple of the other pitchers going after him according to most scouts. Matzek was the most talented pitcher in the draft after Strasburg and that is why he wants the most money.

If anything this shows that MacPhail is more concerned about signablility than having the most talent, and that is not a good thing. I think he's annoyed because suddenly people are calling him on his frugality and they should given the resources this club has at its disposal.

At worst had we not signed our pick, we would have had the 6th pick in the draft next year. We didn't have to draft a signability pick.

To be fair, Hobgood started losing weight prior to the draft and his stock skyrocketed. I doubt the O's were the only team with this kid on their mind.

[JTrea81]

You have no idea how much that money is, whether it really exists (or just, you know, off-sets the losses that the team probably makes in attendance), or how they're using it. Don't let that get in the way of throwing out random numbers you have no way of verifying but firmly believe in them as facts, though.

I refer you to this article from 2006:

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/102354

Last year, the D’Rays received $33M, more than their payroll of $26.6M. They also received $34.5M from national TV, cable and radio and the sale of MLB merchandise. This season, the D’Rays began with a $35.4M payroll. In contrast, the Marlins cut payroll this year to $15.9M, from $56.3M, after receiving $32M in revenue sharing last year. Marlins Owner Jeffrey Loria said, “I don’t want to talk about revenue sharing other than saying we want to be revenue-sharing contributors, not receivers.”

Now if those were 2005 #'s, you can pretty much guess the Orioles are recieving at least $30 million in those TV, cable, radio and merchandising rights, because all of those profits are split equally. And then the Orioles also get revenue sharing money on top of that. Probably in the $25-30 milion mark based on what their payroll is now compared to the Marlins of 2005. And I highly doubt those #'s went down even with the economic struggles.

So there is $55-60 million just from MLB alone not including the MASN profits, almost enough to fund the Orioles payroll. Now factor in the gate reciepts along with MASN, and the Orioles have plenty of money to spend that is not being spent.

[Frobby]

As I said that was Jordan's call. But the publications don't think Matzek was better because he was more expensive, it's because they though he had more talent. And because he is percieved to have more talent, that's why he wants more money and is "hard to get."

Again I hate bringing it up but Teixeira was "hard to get" too and MacPhail sure didn't try to fight for him now did he? MacPhail has a bias against expensive premium talent. He'd rather sign three lesser players than spend the money for one premium guy, to spread out the risk.

I think what happened to Mark Prior has soured him on spending money for premium talent in the draft and for talent in general. He'll make exceptions, but he won't go "all in" for guys.

We need to separate out the issue of (1) why we selected Hobgood, and (2) MacPhail's philosophy in general. To the extent you are saying that MacPhail is somewhat risk-averse when it comes to spending top money for permium talent, I might agree with you. But I think that's got nothing to do with why the O's selected Matt Hobgood. They picked him because they liked him best. And I don't think that there is blindingly obvious evidence that Matzek is better, even if some other scouts think he is.

Personally, I think the time to debate the Hobgood pick is over. Hopefully he signs Thursday or Friday, and is in a Bluefield or Aberdeen uniform this time next week, getting his arm ready to pitch. And hopefully he gets results that make us feel that Joe Jordan knew what he was doing.

[J.D.]

I refer you to this article from 2006:

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/102354

Now if those were 2005 #'s, you can pretty much guess the Orioles are recieving at least $30 million in those TV, cable, radio and merchandising rights, because all of those profits are split equally. And then the Orioles also get revenue sharing money on top of that. Probably in the $25-30 milion mark based on what their payroll is now compared to the Marlins of 2005. And I highly doubt those #'s went down even with the economic struggles.

So there is $55-60 million just from MLB alone not including the MASN profits, almost enough to fund the Orioles payroll. Now factor in the gate reciepts along with MASN, and the Orioles have plenty of money to spend that is not being spent.

Anything written in 2006, during a strong climb in the economy, can NOT be used to discuss anything pertinent to 2009, after a swift and steep recession. At least not RATIONALLY. That's not even factoring in the fact that you're talking about the Rays and Marlins to make your point about the Orioles.

This is a pointless argument, though. You're going to ignore it and move forward with finding anything and everything to attack the front office with, and nothing that any sane or rational human being attempts to convey to you is going to have the slightest bit of impact.

[JTrea81]

To the extent you are saying that MacPhail is somewhat risk-averse when it comes to spending top money for permium talent, I might agree with you.

This is my point, and it's that sentence I pointed out that really brings it out for me. I think MacPhail isn't just annoyed about the Hobgood pick, but what it represents, as the Orioles took a more signable pick to avoid spending the premium money and the negotiations which could net them a better player, but also would present a risk because of the money tied up in that one player.

It's that frugality based on his risk adverse nature that is annoying when frugality will not net you premium talent most of the time.

[J.D.]

This is my point, and it's that sentence I pointed out that really brings it out for me. I think MacPhail isn't just annoyed about the Hobgood pick, but what it represents, as the Orioles took a more signable pick to avoid spending the premium money and the negotiations which could net them a better player, but also would present a risk because of the money tied up in that one player.

It's that frugality based on his risk adverse nature that is annoying when frugality will not net you premium talent most of the time.

So, you're saying that Hobgood isn't premium talent. Is that what you're getting at? Because it's pretty clear that Jordan disagrees, and some of the things written by scouts AFTER THE DRAFT would disagree with that assessment.

[Frobby]

This is my point, and it's that sentence I pointed out that really brings it out for me. I think MacPhail isn't just annoyed about the Hobgood pick, but what it represents, as the Orioles took a more signable pick to avoid spending the premium money and the negotiations which could net them a better player, but also would present a risk because of the money tied up in that one player.

It's that frugality based on his risk adverse nature that is annoying when frugality will not net you premium talent most of the time.

Well, I am not so sure about that. There is always a tradeoff of risk vs. reward, and different personalities will judge that differently.

Let's say you think the chance that Hobgood will turn out to be an ace is 20%, while you think that the chance that Matzek will turn out to be an ace is 25%. Does that justify spending $4 mm for Matzek when Hobgood would only cost $2.5 mm? (I am not saying this is how the O's saw it, I am merely posing a hypothetical question.)