The Bullpen Has Blown 7 Games for Trachsel

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, could be. I've remained a big Moose fan all these years, but it looks to me like he's toast. But, he's a resourceful and intelligent piece of toast, so maybe he has one more adjustment to make to compensate for his ever-worsening fastball.

yea, Moose could be done but he also may be hurt...He wasn't pitching that bad before his recent terrible stretch.

He certainly deserves another year to see if he is done or not IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

This may be off topic if so I apologize (didn't want to start a thread on this) but do you think Mussina is done? His recent poor outings and his age would seem to indicate so.

Hard to say, but the trends aren't optimistic. His ERA by half since the beginning of 2006 is 3.24, 3.96, 4.62, 7.09. His strikeout rate has declined a lot between this year and last. It wouldn't surprise me if he's done, but he might just be having a bad year or some nagging injuries.

[BigDawg819]

Hey Jon...I have an idea. Can you check and see if Niekro is available?

Hes probably only 63 or 64 and I bet can pitch one inning every other night!

He can't be worse then Baez.....

[Frobby]

I'm annoyed that this thread has gotten so far off-topic. There are plenty of other threads about how Trachsel will do next year and whether we should keep him.

Back to the original topic -- the bullpen has pulled the rug out from under him SEVEN TIMES! That is rather incredible. I don't remember any Oriole pitcher ever being victimized that frequently. DCab, meanwhile, only has been vicitimized one time.

Part of this is that Trax rarely goes beyond 6 IP. That multiplies the chances that the bullpen can screw it up. He's also left with runners on base quite a few times. Still -- SEVEN TIMES?

[Baltimoron]

I realize that you don't like uncertainty, but it's a very real and important part of life, including baseball. Sadly, the most useful perspective does not reduce to a simple soundbite, because it it multi-dimensional. It is not reducible to one bullet point, there are several:

• Stats are a valuable tool. It would be dumb to not consider what they suggest.
• Previous performance is the best predictor of future performance, but it is nonetheless an unreliable predictor.
• For a given individual, the previous performance of that individual is a better indicator than normative data for a group, but even that is still an unreliable predictor (i.e., low r-value)
• The sensible thing to do is to consider multiple factors, including past performance and detailed observations of current performance by knowledgeable observers/evaluators.

Care to quantify these ideas?

What do you mean by unreliable? What r value are you thinking off?

Applying the proper weight to the various factors is something that is still more art than science, and is likely to continue that way for the foreseeable future. The error that is routinely made around here is to pretend otherwise.

This is simply not true for hitters and to a lesser degree for pitchers as well.

[Old#5fan]

Hard to say, but the trends aren't optimistic. His ERA by half since the beginning of 2006 is 3.24, 3.96, 4.62, 7.09. His strikeout rate has declined a lot between this year and last. It wouldn't surprise me if he's done, but he might just be having a bad year or some nagging injuries.

I heard his top fastball now only clocks at 87 mph. That isn't going to get major league hitters out very often I don't care how good his control may be.

I heard some analyst on sports center claim that the only comparable long time top level pitcher pitcher with three terrible outings as Mussina has had at the same age was Jack Morris, and after falling off so badly he was done.

[Sports Guy]

No, it doesn't. I have never liked Sexon. He has a huge strike zone due to his size and very overated on many message boards. I personally am very glad the Orioles never wasted good money on him.

Overrated? How do you mean overrated?

He started getting good playing time in 1998....Since then, he has had 7 years of 29 homers or more...He has had an OBP of 340 or more 6 times and just missed out on that in 2 other seasons. He has driven in 100 or more runs 6 times and anoher time he was over 90. He has also hit 28 or more doubles in 5 different years and has had a slugging % over 500 nine times.

He was hurt and missed most of 2004 or his stats would be even better than this IMO.

He has had an OPS of 850 or more 8 times and 4 times it was over 900. Just missed 850 last year.

I am not sure why you say he is overrated or has been overrated unless people are saying he is a HOFer.

He has a career 860 OPS, which is taking a hit this year.

[Tx Oriole]

IMO i would not mind having ST around another season. Can we be sure how any of the young pitchers will work out? Can't be sure of Loewen or Penn or others. SG would it really hurt to ahve ST as the number 5?

[DrungoHazewood]

Hey Jon...I have an idea. Can you check and see if Niekro is available?

Hes probably only 63 or 64 and I bet can pitch one inning every other night!

He was in Cooperstown, you should have grabbed him!

[Old#5fan]

Overrated? How do you mean overrated?

He started getting good playing time in 1998....Since then, he has had 7 years of 29 homers or more...He has had an OBP of 340 or more 6 times and just missed out on that in 2 other seasons. He has driven in 100 or more runs 6 times and anoher time he was over 90. He has also hit 28 or more doubles in 5 different years and has had a slugging % over 500 nine times.

He was hurt and missed most of 2004 or his stats would be even better than this IMO.

He has had an OPS of 850 or more 8 times and 4 times it was over 900. Just missed 850 last year.

I am not sure why you say he is overrated or has been overrated unless people are saying he is a HOFer.

He has a career 860 OPS, which is taking a hit this year.

I don't think anyone I have seen has ever said he is HOF material but I have seen a slew of people on various message boards (not necessarily this one) drooling over this guy and I have never been impressed with him at all. He has too many wholes in his swing and an enormous strike zone. Furthermore, a guy his size should be hitting upper thirty's into the 40's as as far as homers go, not in the twenty's. Heck Tony Batista hit that many homers and had 90 rbi's every year as an Oriole. Not that impressive to me.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think anyone I have seen has ever said he is HOF material but I have seen a slew of people on various message boards (not necessarily this one) drooling over this guy and I have never been impressed with him at all. He has too many wholes in his swing and an enormous strike zone. Furthermore, a guy his size should be hitting upper thirty's into the 40's as as far as homers go, not in the twenty's. Heck Tony Batista hit that many homers and had 90 rbi's every year as an Oriole. Not that impressive to me.

TBat didn't have the OPS or OBP to go along with it like Sexson.

Sexson has hit 30 homers or more 6 times...In other season, he is either not played a full season or was hurt(in 2004). So really, he is pretty much doing what you would hope every full season he plays.

[hoosiers]

You're misunderstanding the predictive value of individual numbers. No one says they're a crystal ball. They just give us a likely range of what's going to happen.

Can you please explain the "predictive value" of individual numbers and how they may provide a "likely range of what's going to happen"?

And show me how that relates to predicting Steve Traschel's numbers in 2007? Or Eric Bedard's? Or Danys Baez? Or Jim Hoey? Or Cory Doyne? Or Aubrey Huff? Or Kevin Millar?

Thank you.

[DrungoHazewood]

Can you please explain the "predictive value" of individual numbers and how they may provide a "likely range of what's going to happen"?

And show me how that relates to predicting Steve Traschel's numbers in 2007? Or Eric Bedard's? Or Danys Baez? Or Jim Hoey? Or Cory Doyne? Or Aubrey Huff? Or Kevin Millar?

Thank you.

No. I'm tired of playing these games and splitting hairs. If you don't think past performance gives you a clue into future results, that's your prerogative.

[Sports Guy]

Can you please explain the "predictive value" of individual numbers and how they may provide a "likely range of what's going to happen"?

And show me how that relates to predicting Steve Traschel's numbers in 2007? Or Eric Bedard's? Or Danys Baez? Or Jim Hoey? Or Cory Doyne? Or Aubrey Huff? Or Kevin Millar?

Thank you.

Off of the top of my head, Bedard's DIPS and FIP era's from last year told you he should be better this year than last....And he has.

[RShack]

To me the stats' date=' imperfect predictors that they are, are going to be better to go on than observations from baseball lifers. Too many built-in prejudices

and long-held opinions that, when analyzed, are pretty much baseless.[/quote']

Who's talking about baseball lifers with bad judgment? Many jobs are important. Many jobs are done crappily by some people. That doesn't mean you eliminate the job. It means you use people who have a clue. You need clueful people who know how to use stats properly, and you need clueful people who are knowledgeable observers/evaluators of how a guy performs. The entire "either-or" argument is vacuous. Discounting either role is just dumb.