Who do you rate higher: Arrieta or Britton

[Stotle]

Tony may get into this, but consider the following:

Britton faced ~ 585 batters last year. Of those, 55 walked, 123 got hits (.232 BAA), 131 struck out, 213 grounded out, and 63 flied out. 63 fly outs in an entire season!

Arrieta faced ~ 624 batters last year. Of those, 56 walked, 142 got hits (.250 BAA), 148 struck out, 133 grounded out, and 145 flew out.

So, although Arrieta had a better K rate, he was more likely to allow hits, and he allowed fly balls more than twice as often as Britton. Over the same number of batters, Arrieta would strike out about 8 more guys but allow about 78 more fly balls (which includes line drives). Do you like that tradeoff?

I hasten to add, Arrieta's FB rate isn't overly high. It's just that Britton's is astoudingly low. And at some point, all those ground balls make up for a few less strikeouts.

Needless to say, nothing I've said here accounts for what stuff they throw, how good their command is, what they are working on, the different levels they are at, etc. I'm just trying to use some statistics to show that even if two pitchers have similar ERA's and walk rates, the guys with the higher strikeout rate isn't necessarily the better pitcher. Ground balls don't become home runs, and they only rarely become extra base hits. Guys who induce an extreme number of grounders are very likely to have success.

I generally agree, but I think this somewhat disregards the fact that it matters how you get the groundballs or the strikeouts. In either case, if you rely on contact (or lack of contact) out of the zone, for example, it's likely you'll have trouble sustaining that as you move up the ladder.

[Tony-OH]

This is certainly the best case I have seen be made for Britton.

That's certainly a big, big part of it, but there's more...

[QBsILLEST1]

I love the analysis(Excellent post Frobby), but IMO its gonna be far more simple than this. Ive stated enough that I am higher on Jake, but IMO what it comes down to for Tony is that he believes Jake has a decent chance to become a reliever while Zach has a very good mental approach to pitching and has no reason he shouldnt remain a starter as long as the changeup develops. Tony may not feel as definite that Jake will end up in the pen as he does with Brandon Erbe, but the chance for Arrieta to become a closer or reliever is great enough to hurt his prospect status, and that mixed with the sharp rise in Britton's status give Tony good reasoning to put Jake #3 and Zach #2.

If I felt that Jake was gonna be a reliever Id rank Britton over Arrieta as well. It makes sense IMO, and if you mix that thought with the fact that Tony is high on Zach's stuff makes Zach an overwhelmingly better prospect in Tony's eyes. Its really all in the eye of the beholder, if you think Jake is going to be a reliever how could you rank him ahead of a SP with very similar ceilings?

[Tony-OH]

I think myself and a few other question ranking (allegedly) Britton ahead of Arrieta as strange thinking because we seem to have an odd feel for your list.

For instance I can forgive the #9 rank to Cameron Coffey. It's largely based off what he was before injury...

But then Matt Hobgood is #6 in your list... 5th overall selection in the draft makes sense to be ranked high in some ways. However, when a guy did well (not incredible) for one season at A Fredrick..... and you (allegedly) rank him ahead of Arrieta whom we've all heard tons of good things about for two years or more...... We (OK maybe just me) begin to scratch our heads.

I won't say I know 1/100th about baseball that you know or about rating players... So please take no offense.

My question:

Did Arrieta's rough start to AAA really give you the opinion that his floor really dropped a great deal?

Is one good year at high A, really that good a determiner about how good a player really is?

Check in tonight at about 11PM for my write up on Arrieta (unless it's Britton ). I will spell out exactly why. BTW, at worse I have Arrieta as the #3 prospect in the entire system, I don't see how that's hardly down on him. As for Britton, maybe you ought to wait for my write up before you scratch your heads. Honestly, I don't have a problem with people who see it the other way around, I really don't. If my arm was twisted and someone said I had to build a case the other way around I probably could, but in the end, you'll see my reasoning for putting one over the other.

Trust me, I didn't make this decision on a whim or in a vacuum.

[Os_Watcher]

I haven't been here long, but I am starting to like Tony-OH.

[wickedwitch]

Check in tonight at about 11PM for my write up on Arrieta (unless it's Britton ). I will spell out exactly why. BTW, at worse I have Arrieta as the #3 prospect in the entire system, I don't see how that's hardly down on him. As for Britton, maybe you ought to wait for my write up before you scratch your heads.

It's a bit hard to build a counter argument if we don't know what your reasons are, so I will return to this thread in two days.

[Satyr3206]

I haven't seen either of these guys in person so I have no first hand knowledge. But I do respect the opinions of others. Although I would give the edge to Jake based on numerous other reports I can see a case for Zach. Only time will tell. And that's the fun part.

[Sports Guy]

Check in tonight at about 11PM for my write up on Arrieta (unless it's Britton ). I will spell out exactly why. BTW, at worse I have Arrieta as the #3 prospect in the entire system, I don't see how that's hardly down on him. As for Britton, maybe you ought to wait for my write up before you scratch your heads. Honestly, I don't have a problem with people who see it the other way around, I really don't. If my arm was twisted and someone said I had to build a case the other way around I probably could, but in the end, you'll see my reasoning for putting one over the other.

Trust me, I didn't make this decision on a whim or in a vacuum.

Are you just announcing #3, #2 and #1 tonight? I mean, there is no suspense here.

[Tony-OH]

Are you just announcing #3, #2 and #1 tonight? I mean, there is no suspense here.

Might as well, I don't think it's a surprise to anyone that Matusz will be number 1. Either way, they'll have to wait for the write ups...