Who do you rate higher: Arrieta or Britton

[hoosiers]

Tony's opinion on here sways many of the OHers and some take his word as the bible and hes higher on Britton than Arrieta, so this is a reason for many people being higher on Zach than Jake. If Tony hadnt made the comments back in July about Zach being rated possibly higher than Jake, there wouldnt even be threads comparing the 2......

Wow!

I think it's pretty obvious that Tony has earned his stripes both as a scout, as a confidant of important folks in the Os front office and as a confidant of other scouts.

Also, not fond of the implication that some here can not think on their own and simply take Tony's "word as the bible".

Why visit here if you do not believe in Tony's credibility or the ability of posters to reach their own opinions?

[QBsILLEST1]

Wow!

I think it's pretty obvious that Tony has earned his stripes both as a scout, as a confidant of important folks in the Os front office and as a confidant of other scouts.

Also, not fond of the implication that some here can not think on their own and simply take Tony's "word as the bible".

Why visit here if you do not believe in Tony's credibility or the ability of posters to reach their own opinions?

Honestly to me it doesnt matter what you are or arent fond of. Im trying not to get too much on the defensive here, but this happened yesterday, it wasnt intended to be disrespectful. Plain and simply, I was not at all taking a shot at Tony. Nothing honestly to do with Tony, I was referring to posters, some, but not all who read only what Tony says and nothing else. It isnt a horrible thing for other people's opinions on the same matter whether its in agreement or not. His opinion sways people because he is respected, he should be, I am not taking a shot at him at all.

I made a simple statement that Tony took the wrong way and people are making a bigger deal out of it then it really is. We are all entitled to our own opinions about the ball player and that is what my post was about.

[Ruzious]

They have extraordinarily similar lifetime stats for ERA and WHIP, but Arrieta has a significantly better SO rate, he's 2 levels higher, and he throws harder. Britton is only slightly younger at the same level - not enough to make a difference. And Arrieta is generally ranked higher by outsiders. On the surface, it's a lot easier to make the case for Arrieta.

[Tony-OH]

They have extraordinarily similar lifetime stats for ERA and WHIP, but Arrieta has a significantly better SO rate, he's 2 levels higher, and he throws harder. Britton is only slightly younger at the same level - not enough to make a difference. And Arrieta is generally ranked higher by outsiders. On the surface, it's a lot easier to make the case for Arrieta.

When you see the write ups I think you'll see where I'm coming from. People who can make an easy case for Arrieta are missing a lot of data in my mind.

[crawdad]

Wow!

I think it's pretty obvious that Tony has earned his stripes both as a scout, as a confidant of important folks in the Os front office and as a confidant of other scouts.

Also, not fond of the implication that some here can not think on their own and simply take Tony's "word as the bible".

Why visit here if you do not believe in Tony's credibility or the ability of posters to reach their own opinions?

Hoosiers, I think you are ratcheting this up. It is fairly obvious that really any major scouting person or group has following that, based on past performance, trusts in what the person or group says. To state that some here follow Tony's word lock and step is not only a testament to Tony's skill and experience, but also to folks who are aware enough to know that they may not have the information needed to make an informed decision. John Sickels has followers. Jonathan Mayo has followers. Law has followers. Callis has followers. Pente has followers. None of this is bad or disparaging. It is that people recognize individuals who have scouting talent and then use them as a resource.

That is a viable way to get a read on the situation. Some folks do what I do, which is listen to a lot of opinions from trade journals . . . go to games and/or watch video to see what makes sense. Because I use a variety of resources does not mean my thoughts are better than Tony's. I think it is clear and easy to say that Britton's popularity as a prospect at OH is greater than it is outside of OH. I think it is fair to say a large portion of that perspective is from the work Tony has done and his experience in scouting and from his contacts with the organization. Tony's word should be considered highly here and it is. Stating that reality is not disrespect or an attack. Stating that reality is stating that Tony does a good job.

I hope in the future with these rankings we can move beyond seeing these things as attacks. I find they get in the way of good discussions on these players.

[Lucky Jim]

Hoosiers, I think you are ratcheting this up. It is fairly obvious that really any major scouting person or group has following that, based on past performance, trusts in what the person or group says. To state that some here follow Tony's word lock and step is not only a testament to Tony's skill and experience, but also to folks who are aware enough to know that they may not have the information needed to make an informed decision. John Sickels has followers. Jonathan Mayo has followers. Law has followers. Callis has followers. Pente has followers. None of this is bad or disparaging. It is that people recognize individuals who have scouting talent and then use them as a resource.

That is a viable way to get a read on the situation. Some folks do what I do, which is listen to a lot of opinions from trade journals . . . go to games and/or watch video to see what makes sense. Because I use a variety of resources does not mean my thoughts are better than Tony's. I think it is clear and easy to say that Britton's popularity as a prospect at OH is greater than it is outside of OH. I think it is fair to say a large portion of that perspective is from the work Tony has done and his experience in scouting and from his contacts with the organization. Tony's word should be considered highly here and it is. Stating that reality is not disrespect or an attack. Stating that reality is stating that Tony does a good job.

I hope in the future with these rankings we can move beyond seeing these things as attacks. I find they get in the way of good discussions on these players.

Bingo. It would also be nice if folks avoided trying to reignite this a day+ later.

[Stotle]

Bingo. It would also be nice if folks avoided trying to reignite this a day+ later.

STOTLE (typing without a hint of irony ):

Some people need to have their opinions heard on the matter, regardless of if it's necessary or even slightly helpful.

[Sports Guy]

Arrieta's stats in Frederick, at age 22:

K rate: 9.6

BB rate: 4.1

HR rate: .6

H/9 IP: 6.4(this stat only means so much to me, just posting it)

Averaged 5.2 IP per start.

Britton in Frederick, at age 21:

K rate: 8.4

BB rate: 3.5

HR rate: .4

H/9 IP: 7.9

Not sure how long his relief appearance was but he basically averaged the same IP per start as Arrieta did.

Now, let's look into things a little further...Britton entered this past year with 3 pro seasons under his belt, spanning 53 starts and 244 IP.

Arrieta entered his first pro season, last year, right out of college but obviously at an older age than Britton.

Now, this year, Arrieta improved his BB rate from 4.1 to an overall rate of 3.35...And it improved from AA to AAA...That's encouraging to me but then again, David Hernandez did the same thing, so this info can only be taken with a grain of salt..Its important but it only means so much.

Arrieta did see his HR rate go up this year..It was the same in AA as it was in A but his Norfolk HR rate was much higher...which may be explained but the tinkering they did with him.

His rate was higher in AA than A but lower in AAA...Overall, it was slightly lower this year compared to last.

We saw improvements from Arrieta this year and he has shown it at upper levels, which Britton hasn't done.

Now, let's look at Britton more closely.

He is 1.5 years or so younger than Arrieta. This year, as he moved up the ladder, he saw his K rate go up, as well as his walk rate..he walked 6 more batters in 7 less innings...His rate jumped up a half a walk per 9 IP. His HR rate was a touch lower but basically the same.

He has the GB rate on his side as well.

So, to me it comes down to a few things, when just looking at raw data:

1) Britton is younger, a lefty and is a GB pitcher.

2) Arrieta throws harder, has done well in advanced leagues and has less pro experience.

Each of these guys has improved as they went up the ladder.

So, which way do you go? Do you go with the guy that has proven himself in the upper levels or the younger pitcher with the good GB tendancies?

Its a tough call, tougher than I thought before really looking at the numbers...I don't really mind either choice, I just think I go with Arrieta because in my mind its close and he has done it in the upper levels....Now, by July of next year, I may feel differently.

[Os_Watcher]

When you see the write ups I think you'll see where I'm coming from. People who can make an easy case for Arrieta are missing a lot of data in my mind.

I think myself and a few other question ranking (allegedly) Britton ahead of Arrieta as strange thinking because we seem to have an odd feel for your list.

For instance I can forgive the #9 rank to Cameron Coffey. It's largely based off what he was before injury...

But then Matt Hobgood is #6 in your list... 5th overall selection in the draft makes sense to be ranked high in some ways. However, when a guy did well (not incredible) for one season at A Fredrick..... and you (allegedly) rank him ahead of Arrieta whom we've all heard tons of good things about for two years or more...... We (OK maybe just me) begin to scratch our heads.

I won't say I know 1/100th about baseball that you know or about rating players... So please take no offense.

My question:

Did Arrieta's rough start to AAA really give you the opinion that his floor really dropped a great deal?

Is one good year at high A, really that good a determiner about how good a player really is?

[Frobby]

They have extraordinarily similar lifetime stats for ERA and WHIP, but Arrieta has a significantly better SO rate, he's 2 levels higher, and he throws harder. Britton is only slightly younger at the same level - not enough to make a difference. And Arrieta is generally ranked higher by outsiders. On the surface, it's a lot easier to make the case for Arrieta.

Tony may get into this, but consider the following:

Britton faced ~ 585 batters last year. Of those, 55 walked, 123 got hits (.232 BAA), 131 struck out, 213 grounded out, and 63 flied out. 63 fly outs in an entire season!

Arrieta faced ~ 624 batters last year. Of those, 56 walked, 142 got hits (.250 BAA), 148 struck out, 133 grounded out, and 145 flew out.

So, although Arrieta had a better K rate, he was more likely to allow hits, and he allowed fly balls more than twice as often as Britton. Over the same number of batters, Arrieta would strike out about 8 more guys but allow about 78 more fly balls (which includes line drives). Do you like that tradeoff?

I hasten to add, Arrieta's FB rate isn't overly high. It's just that Britton's is astoudingly low. And at some point, all those ground balls make up for a few less strikeouts.

Needless to say, nothing I've said here accounts for what stuff they throw, how good their command is, what they are working on, the different levels they are at, etc. I'm just trying to use some statistics to show that even if two pitchers have similar ERA's and walk rates, the guys with the higher strikeout rate isn't necessarily the better pitcher. Ground balls don't become home runs, and they only rarely become extra base hits. Guys who induce an extreme number of grounders are very likely to have success.

[Ruzious]

When you see the write ups I think you'll see where I'm coming from. People who can make an easy case for Arrieta are missing a lot of data in my mind.

Give your pick away, why don't ya? With this buildup, I'm really looking forward to being educated. If it's not ground ball ratios, what can it be??? :scratchchinhmm:

He's not marrying AM's daughter, is he?

[crawdad]

Tony may get into this, but consider the following:

Britton faced ~ 585 batters last year. Of those, 55 walked, 123 got hits (.232 BAA), 131 struck out, 213 grounded out, and 63 flied out. 63 fly outs in an entire season!

Arrieta faced ~ 624 batters last year. Of those, 56 walked, 142 got hits (.250 BAA), 148 struck out, 133 grounded out, and 145 flew out.

So, although Arrieta had a better K rate, he was more likely to allow hits, and he allowed fly balls more than twice as often as Britton. Over the same number of batters, Arrieta would strike out about 8 more guys but allow about 78 more fly balls (which includes line drives). Do you like that tradeoff?

I hasten to add, Arrieta's FB rate isn't overly high. It's just that Britton's is astoudingly low. And at some point, all those ground balls make up for a few less strikeouts.

Needless to say, nothing I've said here accounts for what stuff they throw, how good their command is, what they are working on, the different levels they are at, etc. I'm just trying to use some statistics to show that even if two pitchers have similar ERA's and walk rates, the guys with the higher strikeout rate isn't necessarily the better pitcher. Ground balls don't become home runs, and they only rarely become extra base hits. Guys who induce an extreme number of grounders are very likely to have success.

I think what I find most fascinating about Britton are his splits. It is interesting how different his performance is between righties and lefties. It isn't bad . . . well, he does go deeper into counts with lefties and manages to do pretty well against them. Righties get more contact on him by a good bit, but it is often poor quality contact.

[Ruzious]

Tony may get into this, but consider the following:

Britton faced ~ 585 batters last year. Of those, 55 walked, 123 got hits (.232 BAA), 131 struck out, 213 grounded out, and 63 flied out. 63 fly outs in an entire season!

Arrieta faced ~ 624 batters last year. Of those, 56 walked, 142 got hits (.250 BAA), 148 struck out, 133 grounded out, and 145 flew out.

So, although Arrieta had a better K rate, he was more likely to allow hits, and he allowed fly balls more than twice as often as Britton. Over the same number of batters, Arrieta would strike out about 8 more guys but allow about 78 more fly balls (which includes line drives). Do you like that tradeoff?

I hasten to add, Arrieta's FB rate isn't overly high. It's just that Britton's is astoudingly low. And at some point, all those ground balls make up for a few less strikeouts.

Needless to say, nothing I've said here accounts for what stuff they throw, how good their command is, what they are working on, the different levels they are at, etc. I'm just trying to use some statistics to show that even if two pitchers have similar ERA's and walk rates, the guys with the higher strikeout rate isn't necessarily the better pitcher. Ground balls don't become home runs, and they only rarely become extra base hits. Guys who induce an extreme number of grounders are very likely to have success.

Very good post. Do you have Bergesen's applicalbe minor league numbers? I'm curious about how his numbers stack up with Britton's.

[Frobby]

Did Arrieta's rough start to AAA really give you the opinion that his floor really dropped a great deal?

Is one good year at high A, really that good a determiner about how good a player really is?

I don't understand why anyone would think that ranking Arrieta no. 3 in our entire organization would mean that Arrieta's floor has dropped a great deal. Last year Arrieta was no. 4, now he's no. 3, so it's not like he has dropped.

What really has happened here is that Britton's stock has risen dramatically. It's not like Britton hasn't been on the radar up until now. He was 9th last year. Of the 8 guys ahead of him last season, Wieters, Tillman, and Reimold have graduated, Spoone is still hurt, and Rowell has dropped off the face of the Earth. So really, Britton would be no worse than no. 4 among the guys listed last year who are still eligible, even if he hadn't improved his stock. Basically, if he ranks no. 2, he will have passed Snyder and Arrieta among players who were ahead of him and had solid years.

[Sports Guy]

Tony may get into this, but consider the following:

Britton faced ~ 585 batters last year. Of those, 55 walked, 123 got hits (.232 BAA), 131 struck out, 213 grounded out, and 63 flied out. 63 fly outs in an entire season!

Arrieta faced ~ 624 batters last year. Of those, 56 walked, 142 got hits (.250 BAA), 148 struck out, 133 grounded out, and 145 flew out.

So, although Arrieta had a better K rate, he was more likely to allow hits, and he allowed fly balls more than twice as often as Britton. Over the same number of batters, Arrieta would strike out about 8 more guys but allow about 78 more fly balls (which includes line drives). Do you like that tradeoff?

I hasten to add, Arrieta's FB rate isn't overly high. It's just that Britton's is astoudingly low. And at some point, all those ground balls make up for a few less strikeouts.

Needless to say, nothing I've said here accounts for what stuff they throw, how good their command is, what they are working on, the different levels they are at, etc. I'm just trying to use some statistics to show that even if two pitchers have similar ERA's and walk rates, the guys with the higher strikeout rate isn't necessarily the better pitcher. Ground balls don't become home runs, and they only rarely become extra base hits. Guys who induce an extreme number of grounders are very likely to have success.

This is certainly the best case I have seen be made for Britton.