Who do you rate higher: Arrieta or Britton

[wickedwitch]

I like Arrieta better. IMO, both his ceiling and floor are higher than Britton's.

[LookinUp]

I still have Arrieta over Britton. In the best case scenario, I think we're looking at two more #2 type starters.

[Frobby]

There was a pretty good discussion in this thread, shortly after the season ended: http://www.forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=87759&highlight=Arrieta Here is what Tony said there:

I don't think it's as close as most. I won't reveal my pick until the prospect list comes out, but I know which one I have higher. Either way, two pretty nice pitchers...

[Mackus]

Definitely Arrieta for me. Britton's numbers are great, but Arrieta's done it two levels higher. Britton could easily pass Arrieta in my mind next year if he repeats his Frederick numbers at Bowie and Arrieta struggles, but even with the great groundball tendencies and the left-handed arm, I still think Arrieta is the better prospect right now.

[wildcard]

I can see both of them in the rotation by July 2011. Hard to pick.

[Mackus]

I can see both of them in the rotation by July 2011. Hard to pick.

Arrieta will be here much sooner than Britton. Probably before July of 2010.

[jerios55]

Definitely Arrieta for me. Britton's numbers are great, but Arrieta's done it two levels higher. Britton could easily pass Arrieta in my mind next year if he repeats his Frederick numbers at Bowie and Arrieta struggles, but even with the great groundball tendencies and the left-handed arm, I still think Arrieta is the better prospect right now.

Arrieta over Britton for these reasons.

[hoosiers]

I think Britton retains a strong upside as he already has quality numbers, can refine his stuff and still has some projection if he puts on some weight and adds some velo.

I must say Arrieta is very difficult to judge. As someone who has not seen him pitch, but chases down every comment on Os prospects, I see less consensus for Arrieta than most prospects. Some believe his stuff will be electric in the bp, others see an innings eater 3/4, others may see better.

It's an interesting discussion between JA and ZB, but it really does not matter to me. They both seem like plus arms and it appears both will have solid major league careers. If one becomes a solid 3 or better, the Os pitching will be very strong in a couple of years.

[Three Run Homer]

In the end, I think Britton will have a better MLB career than Arietta and I would be more upset to see him traded away, so I voted for Britton. But it's really close in my mind, and it seems that most scouts rank Arietta higher. I probably overweight GB percentages when evaluating pitchers...gee, I wonder what it is about the O's current staff that would make me obsess about ground balls?

[QBsILLEST1]

In the end, I think Britton will have a better MLB career than Arietta and I would be more upset to see him traded away, so I voted for Britton. But it's really close in my mind, and it seems that most scouts rank Arietta higher. I probably overweight GB percentages when evaluating pitchers...gee, I wonder what it is about the O's current staff that would make me obsess about ground balls?

Until I see jake stop developing and improving, he has the higher ceiling. He throws harder than Britton, and his 4 seamer moves like a 2 seamer, its a disgusting pitch that he has some decent command of. He also has a plus slider and an average change. He has a curve that he doesnt throw much as well that could improve or he could also drop it from his arsenal. We will see, but hes the better prospect, better stuff, excellent bulldog approach.

Britton has the plus fastball, he flashes a plus slider(depending who you talk to its below average to plus) and a below average change that hes probably gonna progress to atleast average. His elite GB numbers help him out a lot as well.

At this specific point, I take Arrieta. Even if Britton posted similar numbers to Arrieta in AAA and they were both 23, Id rank Arrieta over Britton mostly because he has 3 ML pitches right now while Britton has 2. Jake IMO has a ceiling of a TOR but hes more than likely gonna settle in as a #3 type starter assuming he stays in the rotation. Now, if/when Britton improves that changeup to atleast an average pitch, then itll be very close and depending how the K's look and if his command improves I may choose Britton. The elite GB rate IMO will be what makes him the better prospect once they have a pretty similarly good arsenal.....

So Arrieta for right now, but next year will be a big one for Britton. If the changeup comes around and he continues to improve his overall #'s and BB rate, then my choice will probably be him. When he does improve upon those aspects he will IMO be a #2 type starter, but until he improves that changeup I see him along the lines of 3/4.

[ejf1025]

I'm surprised to see this being debated considering where they were to start the year...

Is this a case of Britton excelling? Arrieta dropping? Or a little bit of both?

[Mackus]

I'm surprised to see this being debated considering where they were to start the year...

Is this a case of Britton excelling? Arrieta dropping? Or a little bit of both?

Much more of the former than the latter. Arrieta did very well at AA, but struggled just a bit, or moreso didn't excel, at AAA before ending the year pretty strongly.

Also, I think a lot of it has to do with Britton throwing lefthanded and being such a groundball machine. We saw this year what you can do if you just throw tons of round balls with Bergesen, so its easy to extrapolate what you might have if you had a Bergesen who could also strike people out and happend to throw with his left hand.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm surprised to see this being debated considering where they were to start the year...

Is this a case of Britton excelling? Arrieta dropping? Or a little bit of both?

IMO some people are slightly overhyping Britton, which is pretty crazy to say coming from me But I personally dont see much of a comparison. The funny thing is, for msot people here on OH Arrieta's stint in Norfolk made people think of him as slightly lesser of a prospect, when in actuality his stint in Norfolk made him a better prospect and put him in the right direction to become a good ML SP.

I think people are expecting Britton to develop his changeup into average-above average which owuld make him have better K #'s and more dominant as a pitcher. Itd also make him a step closer to becoming a Ml SP. But at this point Arrieta is so much further along and has done it at a much higher level. If Britton never develops that changeup, then theres no way he is a better ML SP than Arrieta, this is my point.....

BUT, yes Britton raised his stock tremendously this year. He became a borderline top 100 prospect, some places will have him as high as the 70's. Next year he will be a top 100 guy and could very well become the better prospect, but not now IMO. Tony's opinion on here sways many of the OHers and some take his word as the bible and hes higher on Britton than Arrieta, so this is a reason for many people being higher on Zach than Jake. If Tony hadnt made the comments back in July about Zach being rated possibly higher than Jake, there wouldnt even be threads comparing the 2......

[Frobby]

If Tony hadnt made the comments back in July about Zach being rated possibly higher than Jake, there wouldnt even be threads comparing the 2......

I think the comps come from the fact that both were the Carolina League pitcher of the year, and Britton did that when he was a year younger than Arrieta. Clearly Britton's stock has been on the rise for two years now, and really shot up this year, deservedly so. People would be debating this regardless of Tony's comment back in July.

I suppose it is noteworthy that Arrieta was BA's no. 2 prospect in the Carolina League last year (behind Wieters), whereas BA ranked Britton 15 this year. BA has Arrieta 11th in the IL and 17th in the EL, so I'd imagine BA still gives him the nod over Britton.

[Sports Guy]

I know Tony doesn't care what BA and other publications say...and he shouldn't. This is his site and his opinion and he should go with what he believes.

That being said, it appears that Britton will fall somewhere in the 75-120 range on lists...Arrieta will likely be higher than that.

Arrieta seems to have better stuff but I am not sure because I haven't seen them pitch.

Arrieta is more advanced in terms of the leagues he has been in....And we have seen Griffin say that Arrieta is right up there with Tillman and Matusz.

Now, maybe he feels the same way about Britton, I don't know.

I understand why Tony likes Britton...He is a GB pitcher....But he has a long way to go in terms of his command/BB rate and I need to see him improve on that at a higher level before I would put him over Arrieta.