Who is the #12 prospect?

[Frobby]

I agree with you, but ...

"He's what Joe Jordan likes to call a '1000 at bat player' as in it'll take him 1000 at bats before the organization knows what they have in him."

OK, I follow you now. I still think what that means is that by the end of 2010, the O's will know whether they've got a real prospect here or not. I don't expect something magical will happen on August 6 or whatever day he gets his 1000th AB.

Is he expected to be promoted to Frederick, or will he repeat Delmarva?

[tywright]

OK, I follow you now. I still think what that means is that by the end of 2010, the O's will know whether they've got a real prospect here or not. I don't expect something magical will happen on August 6 or whatever day he gets his 1000th AB.

Is he expected to be promoted to Frederick, or will he repeat Delmarva?

I was being facetious about needing 1000 ABs. However, I do believe this is the year we'll see the vision of Avery becoming much more clearer.

[DuffMan]

Is he expected to be promoted to Frederick, or will he repeat Delmarva?

Stockstill says that both Avery and Hoes will be starting out in Frederick next year.

http://masnsports.com/2009/09/hoes-and-avery-were-very-solid.html

[Stotle]

Just to clarify Avery's amateur career -- his high school league was a vastly inconsistent (and many would say inferior) league compared to most of the top prepsters that year. That said, I believe he played on the East Cobb squad over the summer as a travel team, and I'm sure he played in the East Cobb summer league, which is among the best in the nation. He also performed well on the showcase circuit in the summer of 2007.

So he isn't an athlete that was trying to be molded into a baseball player. He was and is a baseball player. He simply hasn't had the reps to refine certain aspects of his skill set.

Now, unfortunately, baseball is a game wherein losing those reps early in development can be fatal to a players development. But, Avery is a strong enough athlete that I'm sure the hope/thought of Jordan in making the selection was that he'd be able to progress quickly once more of the foundation was set. I think it's too early to give up on him, but the same my approach is more "if he gets there" rather than "when he gets there".

[Frobby]

Stockstill says that both Avery and Hoes will be starting out in Frederick next year.

http://masnsports.com/2009/09/hoes-and-avery-were-very-solid.html

I may have read that report before, but if so, I had forgotten it, so thanks for posting. It's a pretty encouraging report.

[QBsILLEST1]

I guess I got things twisted, but I always thought that Aberdeen was "LoA", Delmarva was "A" and Fredrick was "HiA". The article calls Delmarva, "LoA". But regardless, that is a very encouraging article. But what do we do with the conflicting reports on Avery's defense in CF? What to believe? You can look at both Avery and Hoes' seasons and find some positive things about each, but even though it seems that Hoes had the slightly worse season, Ia ctually see more hope in his stats. He K'd about 40 less times than Avery did and also hit .284 after the AS Break. I personally still like Hoes more as a prospect.

Avery actually improved upon his SLUG% from GCL to Delmarva. And his batting average only dropped 18 points from GCL to Delmarva while jumping 2 levels.

Just to throw this out there, Caleb Joseph hit only .261 in Aberdeen as a 22 year old in 08 while both Avery and Hoes hit .262 and .260 respectively as 19 year olds in Delmarva, one level higher with much less experience than Joseph had. As we know Joseph went on to lead the league in batting average for mcuh of this year and ended the year with a .284 mark, hopefully Hoes and Avery can make similar progress.....Avery actually walked at a better rate than Joseph did this year as well....

[tywright]

I guess I got things twisted, but I always thought that Aberdeen was "LoA", Delmarva was "A" and Fredrick was "HiA". The article calls Delmarva, "LoA". But regardless, that is a very encouraging article. But what do we do with the conflicting reports on Avery's defense in CF? What to believe? You can look at both Avery and Hoes' seasons and find some positive things about each, but even though it seems that Hoes had the slightly worse season, Ia ctually see more hope in his stats. He K'd about 40 less times than Avery did and also hit .284 after the AS Break. I personally still like Hoes more as a prospect.

Avery actually improved upon his SLUG% from GCL to Delmarva. And his batting average only dropped 18 points from GCL to Delmarva while jumping 2 levels.

Just to throw this out there, Caleb Joseph hit only .261 in Aberdeen as a 22 year old in 08 while both Avery and Hoes hit .262 and .260 respectively as 19 year olds in Delmarva, one level higher with much less experience than Joseph had. As we know Joseph went on to lead the league in batting average for mcuh of this year and ended the year with a .284 mark, hopefully Hoes and Avery can make similar progress.....Avery actually walked at a better rate than Joseph did this year as well....

There's only 2 levels of A ball (Delmarva and Frederick). Aberdeen is highest level of short season ball.

[QBsILLEST1]

There's only 2 levels of A ball (Delmarva and Frederick). Aberdeen is highest level of short season ball.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/scoreboard/

According to MiLB.com theres 3, theres LoA which is a short season league but not considered a true "rookie" league in which we have Aberdeen. Theres then of course Delmarva and Fredrick, which I always took it to be that Delmarva is A ball and Fredrick is HiA.....

And if you go to http://www.thebaseballcube.com/Players/H/L.J.-Hoes.shtml

youll see that it lists LJ Hoes in A ball(Delmarva) for the 2009 season.....

[JayThomas]

Yeah, but Matos significantly outhit Avery.

... and Matos was always considered to be very good defensively in CF.

[Frobby]

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/scoreboard/

According to MiLB.com theres 3, theres LoA which is a short season league but not considered a true "rookie" league in which we have Aberdeen. Theres then of course Delmarva and Fredrick, which I always took it to be that Delmarva is A ball and Fredrick is HiA.....

And if you go to http://www.thebaseballcube.com/Players/H/L.J.-Hoes.shtml

youll see that it lists LJ Hoes in A ball(Delmarva) for the 2009 season.....

You say Po -TAY - to, and I say Po - TAH - to. Whether Aberdeen is considered "short season A" or "low A," or whether Delmarva is conisdered "low A" or "A," I think we all understand that Delmarva is a higher level of competition than Aberdeen. Does the rest of it matter?

[wickedwitch]

Stockstill says that both Avery and Hoes will be starting out in Frederick next year.

http://masnsports.com/2009/09/hoes-and-avery-were-very-solid.html

The more I think about this, the more I dislike this decision. There's no harm in starting them in Delmarva, and then promoting them when they're ready. If they start in Frederick and aren't hitting, the O's are stuck with either keeping them there, even if they are completely overwhelmed, or demoting them.

I liked promoting them to Delmarva, even if it was overly aggressive, because it gave them three months worth of extra at-bats. But there's no reason to compound the problem.

[hoosiers]

Just to throw this out there, Caleb Joseph hit only .261 in Aberdeen as a 22 year old in 08 while both Avery and Hoes hit .262 and .260 respectively as 19 year olds in Delmarva, one level higher with much less experience than Joseph had. As we know Joseph went on to lead the league in batting average for mcuh of this year and ended the year with a .284 mark, hopefully Hoes and Avery can make similar progress.....Avery actually walked at a better rate than Joseph did this year as well....

Some good stuff above. I am more than a bit surprised at the change in rankings from the draft, to last year's ratings to 09 performances to 09 ratings between Joseph and Avery/Hoes - though I'm glad all three are in our system.

It's difficult to rate the "toolsy" guys like Avery. We were told there's a lot of tools there, but that Avery was raw. I think there is an expectation that the light bulb will go on sooner if at all. It's clear for Avery the light bulb did not go on at DelMarva, but perhaps it flickered some. IMO his statistics were fine - a nice progression while moving up several levels from last year.

[Frobby]

Yeah, but Matos significantly outhit Avery.

I don't really want to dispute the general point you are making, which is that there are some pretty mediocre players who did better than Avery at Delmarva at a similar age. Consider the point taken, and agreed with. On Matos in particular, however, there are a few points worth making.

Matos played in the GCL at 17. He played 2/3 of a season at Bluefield and 1/3 of a season at Delmarva at 18. Therefore, by the time he was a 19 year old at Delmarva, he was repeating a level he had played at for part of the year in the previous season, and he was only up one level from where he had started in the previous season. He had 550 pro plate appearances under his belt before his age 19 season at Delmarva. By contrast, Avery had 192 PAs going into this season, and he was skipping straight from the GCL to the Sally League without any time in Bluefield.

So, while it's a feather in Matos's cap that he played in the GCL at 17 and made his way to Delmarva for part of his age 18 season, it also gave him a head start on Avery that has to be considered when weighing their stats for their age 19 seasons at Delmarva. Remember that Matos' first pass through Delmarva at age 18 wasn't too good at all -- .210/.275/.252. For his combined time there over two seasons, he hit .260/.313/.363, pretty similar to Avery's one season there.

Just to say it one more time, I'm not debating the point that you were making, which gives plenty of reason to have reservations about Avery.

[QBsILLEST1]

Some good stuff above. I am more than a bit surprised at the change in rankings from the draft, to last year's ratings to 09 performances to 09 ratings between Joseph and Avery/Hoes - though I'm glad all three are in our system.

It's difficult to rate the "toolsy" guys like Avery. We were told there's a lot of tools there, but that Avery was raw. I think there is an expectation that the light bulb will go on sooner if at all. It's clear for Avery the light bulb did not go on at DelMarva, but perhaps it flickered some. IMO his statistics were fine - a nice progression while moving up several levels from last year.

I agree, the lightbuld maybe didnt come on, but it definitely flickered at times. I was probably being harder on him than I should have previously, he definitely showed some thing to be happy about, same with Hoes. Itll be interesting to see how each of them does in Fredrick. Ill be closely watching to see if Hoes can regain some of that discipline. Its pretty amazing to watch a guy have an OBP more than 100 points higher than his average 1 year, then the next year his OBP/BA split is about a quarter of what it was. IMO rather than this being looked at as this being a bad year for these guys, they actually did well. Yes they were overmatched, it caused Hoes' discipline to disappear, but he still held his own. Avery actually took steps forward this year, last year Hoes was way ahead of Xavier as far as polish and the hit tool in general. I think the fact they jumped so many levels is masking how much progress they both have actually made.

Next year will be huge for them. This year was used IMO more of a litmus test for them both to see how theyd handle it and apparently Stockstill was pleased because they are both going to be promoted.

[QBsILLEST1]

You say Po -TAY - to, and I say Po - TAH - to. Whether Aberdeen is considered "short season A" or "low A," or whether Delmarva is conisdered "low A" or "A," I think we all understand that Delmarva is a higher level of competition than Aberdeen. Does the rest of it matter?

Sure it matters. I originally asked the question because the in the blog it says that Delmarva was LoA. So that threw me off and I asked msotly for clarification. After I asked, I did my own research and found my own answer. When I see someone else who misinterpreted it, I feel the need to pass on the info so now they are informed. It had nothing to do with us knowing Delmarva is tougher comp. than Aberdeen, it had to do with making correct statements. If someone said Erbe did very well in AAA Bowie, would you not correct their statement?