Baseball America Posts BAL Top 10

[Lucky Jim]

I think BA is misunderstood by a lot of posters.

1. They are VERY careful to be conservative, generally relying almost exclusively on what the hear from people in the industry.

2. They aren't just throwing up personal opinions -- they crosscheck with scouts/front office people on their player reports.

3. The largest margin for error is probably in the rankings, where they are attempting to quantify reports they've compiled and assign a value to the player.

The takeaway, I think is that:

1) Baseball America is essentially reporting what the industry thinks of MiL prospects -- of course the industry can be wrong, but as a source it's probably the best at identifying the current value of a player as seen by baseball as a whole.

2) The rankings are imperfect and subject to the personal biases of the individuals preparing the lists. Manuel, for example, tends to place Yankees players higher on the overall lists, while Callis tends to err on the side of the Red Sox players and Lingo generally has BAL players rated higher than does Manuel or Callis. It's natural to value the familiar more highly than the unfamiliar -- we see this in practice with teams unwilling to part with their prospects in trades.

Bottom line, it's legit to question rankings from BA but they are (I think) the most credibile source for a snap-shot of a player's skill set and current value.

I agree w/ all of this. My predictable path was the Matusz/Tillman/Bergesen discussion where we learn that the whole project is meaningless outside of the MLB value right now because Bergesen exceeded expectations last year.

I'll note that re: BA, there are obviously secondary subjective evaluations at play, too: the weight given to the individual opinions they survey and attempt to quantify. But that's neither here nor there, just an interesting (to me) component of the whole process.

[Tony-OH]

Lingo was not talking about "now". He was responding to a question of why BA put Tillman as the Os ace in 2013 ahead of Matusz. The answer was better stuff and more accomplished at a younger age.

Rshack's allowed his opinion, but to be clear, he's advocating against someone who is about 200 times more informed on the subject.

Be it for me to take up for Shack, but everyone is allowed an opinion regardless of whether they are an expert or not.

The Tillman versus Matusz debate is an interesting one and I'm not sure anyone is ridiculously wrong regardless of their current opinion of the two. Me personally, if I had to choose one over the other I'd take Matusz, but that's not to say that Tillman may not have years where he's more dominate.

I've heard very few scouts or professional baseball people doubt that Matusz is anything less than a mid-rotation starter with a lot of people seeing him as a future ace. For me, he's the best pitcher I've seen in the minor leagues in the Orioles organization over the last 12 years.

I like Tillman, but the command of his pitches needs to improve and I would like to see more swings and misses on his stuff in the strike zone. The best part about him is he's so young and he has a body that projects well for improvement. I can see how some evaluators see Tillman's age and stuff and project him to be a top of the rotation guy, and I can also see why some question his command and think he'll settle into a mid-rotation guy.

Either way, both of these guys are going to be a big part of the future here in Baltimore and I'm glad we have two young pitchers with this much potential.

In my mind though, Matusz's pitchability, the fact that he's left-handed, and his command give him a clear edge to reach his ceiling.

[RShack]

Prior to last season, what was Lingo's opinion of Bergesen?

This will go down a predictable path.

My predictable path was the Matusz/Tillman/Bergesen discussion where we learn that the whole project is meaningless outside of the MLB value right now because Bergesen exceeded expectations last year.

No reason to turn this into some ridiculous black-and-white thing. Face it, the whole prediction thing is iffy shades of gray. Just because somebody doesn't take performance predictions as gospel, that's not dismissing them as worthless. Anybody with any sense knows that predicting future performance is iffy and far from perfect even with proven guys, and is even more iffy and imperfect with unproven guys. It's just how it is...

All I wanted to know is what the guy thought of Bergesen before last season. I am also curious as to whether his opinion changed any after Bergesen did what he did...

[Stotle]

No reason to turn this into some ridiculous black-and-white thing. Face it, the whole prediction thing is iffy shades of gray. Just because somebody doesn't take performance predictions as gospel, that's not dismissing them as worthless. Anybody with any sense knows that predicting future performance is iffy and far from perfect even with proven guys, and is even more iffy and imperfect with unproven guys. It's just how it is...

All I wanted to know is what the guy thought of Bergesen before last season. I am also curious as to whether his opinion changed any after Bergesen did what he did...

Bergesen was ranked in the early teens, around 11-14, if I remember correctly. My BA book from last year is at my home office.

[rhall]

Bergesen was ranked in the early teens, around 11-14, if I remember correctly. My BA book from last year is at my home office.

They actually had him 18th, right behind David Hernandez & Jason Berken. My book is at home, too, but I can show you the rankings because I'm weird and put all the rankings every year into a spreadsheet so that I can track them year to year. :laughlol:

1 Wieters, Matt C

2 Tillman, Chris SP

3 Matusz, Brian SP

4 Arrieta, Jake SP

5 Reimold, Nolan OF

6 Erbe, Brandon SP

7 Rowell, Billy 3B

8 Patton, Troy SP

9 Snyder, Brandon 1B/3B

10 Mickolio, Kam RP

11 Spoone, Chorye SP

12 Britton, Zachary SP

13 Avery, Xavier OF

14 Hoes, L.J. 2B

15 Bundy, Robert SP

16 Hernandez, David SP

17 Berken, Jason SP

18 Bergesen, Brad SP

19 Henson, Tyler 3B

20 Angle, Matthew OF

21 Beato, Pedro SP

22 McCrory, Bob RP

23 Miclat, Greg SS

24 Butler, Tony SP

25 Cooney, Brandon RP

26 Waring, Brandon 1B/3B

27 Turner, Justin 2B

28 Adams, Ryan 2B

29 Lou Montanez OF

30 Joseph, Caleb C