Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[Just Regular]

Shealy's PECOTA card forecasts neutral park OPS's between 826 and 855 each of the next five seasons.

I don't know how much stock to put in the defensive projections, but they actually peg him with 1B rates of 115 or better each of the next 3 seasons! As has been said, he is a big boy at least.

It all adds up to WARP projections between 2.4 and 3.1 for 2006-2009; by 2010, it'll already be his age 30 season, so it drops a bit there.

John Sickels's writeup of him in this year's book is also very positive; it says....unlike many young power hitters, he is not exclusively a pull guy....goes to the opposite field....has no particular weaknesses against breaking balls or changeups....doesn't have the long, loopy swing that scares scouts.

I think I'm coming around to being glad if we do Olson for him. I do think Olson is in the top 5 of our best case scenario rotation of the future with Bedard, Cabrera, Loewen and Penn, but he is probably 5th out of that group, and it isn't like there aren't other guys coming up behind him the next few years. Plus Benson is exceeding expectations, and if he's the Orioles first big Mazzone success story, he's probably someone we'll want to keep around for a while.

[vab]

Don't know if anybody has posted this already but Shealy's splits look good, assuming this site is correct.

http://www.angelfire.com/nb/jms/milb/ColPCL.html#Ryan+Shealy

I don't know what young pitching the Rockies are asking for but if their names aren't Bedard, Cabrera, Ray, Loewen, Penn or Liz, there shouldn't be a hold up from the Orioles end. This is exactly the kind of guy they should be going after.

[luismatos]

I wouldn't trade Erbe either, or probably not olson. I like the idea of trading Loewen for Shealy, especially if we sign Russ Ortiz.

[boulware0]

Defiently would not trade Erbe for almost anyone. I am on the fense with Olsen and probebly would not blame them either way. However, I would not trade Loewen, Penn, Erbe, Liz, Bedard, Cabrera(would not trade period), or Ray unless it gave us a big-time player in return.

I really feel our FO needs to be aggressive and not passive but they have proven in the past to be extremely passive. The only teams that can afford to be passive are teams with big budgets and that is defiently not us.

[Absltgreek]

I wouldn't trade Erbe either, or probably not olson. I like the idea of trading Loewen for Shealy, especially if we sign Russ Ortiz.

Why do people keep insisting we traded some of our best commodities, ie, Loewen or DC for shealy. He can be had for significantly less. That would be a horrible deal for us.

[NoVaO]

People have mentioned Ryan Howard..Let's look at their stats(using A+ level as beginning reference point):

Howard:

Age 23: A+- 490 ab's...304/374/514/888..32 doubles..23 hr..k-3.2 ab's..bb-9.8 ab's

Age 24: AA- 374 ab's...297/386/647/1033...18 doubles...37 homers...k- 2.9 ab's...bb- 8.1 ab

Age 24: AAA- 111 ab's....270/362/604/966- 10 doubles...9 homers...k- 3.08 ab....bb- 7.9 ab

Age 25: AAA- 210 ab's....271/467/690/1157...19 doubles..16 homers...k- 3.18 ab...bb- 5.4 ab

Shealy:

Age 24: A+ 341 ab's...299/391/519/910...31 doubles...14 homers...k- 4.7 ab....bb- 8.1

Age 25: AA 469....318/411/584/995...32 doubles...29 homers....k- 3.8 ab's....bb- 7.7 bb

Age 26: AAA 411....328/393/601/994....30 doubles....26 homers....k- 5 ab...bb- 10 ab

These numbers do not include Shealy this year or eother's major league numbers...Just showing minor league numbers:

Shealy's totals: 324/417/594/1011.....HR every 16.5 ab's.....Doubles...12.7

Howard's totals: 299/384/547/931....HR every 16.8....Doubles...17.4

Pretty close overall...Shealy has been a year older at each level...Howard showed more raw power in higher levels while Shealy struck out less....Howard did this in better pitchers leagues as well.

I wouldn't expect Shealy to be as good as Howard(who has been better than many of us thought he would) but projections of Shealy being "only" a 800 OPS player may be off.

I was thinking the same thing. He projects favorably or even better than a lot of very good players that put up similar type statistics in the minors. He may be a little older, but a .900 - .925 OPS in the majors may not be out of the question. An .870 OPS seems realistic to me. However, as far as expectations go, I think he has a very good chance of carrying at least an .830 OPS for his career.

If scouts feel he doesn't have any major holes in his game that signal he may struggle with MLB pitching, we should jump on trading Olson for him. I mean, even if Olson is a kind of heavy price to pay, we must take some risks at some point. We have nothing on the horizon as far as 1b prospects go. I want to see them make this deal.

[rolliefingers]

Really would like to know who's the second guy COL would want...

[Sports Guy]

Why do people keep insisting we traded some of our best commodities, ie, Loewen or DC for shealy. He can be had for significantly less. That would be a horrible deal for us.

Seriously..Loewen for Shealy is a horrendous idea.

[Sports Guy]

I was thinking the same thing. He projects favorably or even better than a lot of very good players that put up similar type statistics in the minors. He may be a little older, but a .900 - .925 OPS in the majors may not be out of the question. An .870 OPS seems realistic to me. However, as far as expectations go, I think he has a very good chance of carrying at least an .830 OPS for his career.

If scouts feel he doesn't have any major holes in his game that signal he may struggle with MLB pitching, we should jump on trading Olson for him. I mean, even if Olson is a kind of heavy price to pay, we must take some risks at some point. We have nothing on the horizon as far as 1b prospects go. I want to see them make this deal.

I am coming around on Olson for Shealy myself....I do think that may be too much for Shealy but the potential for big things is there with this kid.

Now, i would like to know who the other pitcher is...If it is Liz, i would rather them trade Liz.

[ejf1025]

Really would like to know who's the second guy COL would want...

Is it two pitchers they want, i.e. they want two pitchers for Shealy?

Or

Is it one of two pitchers (one being Olson)?

[Sports Guy]

Is it two pitchers they want, i.e. they want two pitchers for Shealy?

Or

Is it one of two pitchers (one being Olson)?

One of 2.....There are 2 players they have identified for a 1 for 1 deal...Apparently Olson is one of those 2 players.

[rolliefingers]

Is it two pitchers they want, i.e. they want two pitchers for Shealy?

Or

Is it one of two pitchers (one being Olson)?

Not completely sure, but we're all under the impression that it's Olson OR another guy. If they want two good prospects for Shealy, then obviously no freakin' way.

Bigbird has been a little cryptic here, as per usual...but I kind of like it that way. Adds to the intrigue.

[ejf1025]

One of 2.....There are 2 players they have identified for a 1 for 1 deal...Apparently Olson is one of those 2 players.

The other has to be Liz or Johnson...

[Sports Guy]

You can get better players for Loewen than Shealy, which is why it is a horrendous idea.

[rolliefingers]

I am coming around on Olson for Shealy myself....I do think that may be too much for Shealy but the potential for big things is there with this kid.

Now, i would like to know who the other pitcher is...If it is Liz, i would rather them trade Liz.

Completely agreed on this.

But, I'm not so sure about Loewen. Obviously, he's got tons of talent, but I still worry about the contract clause. Sometimes I wouldn't mind making that someone else's problem.