Let's go for it.

[Lucky Jim]

Add me to the list of folks who consider bets like this divisive and as having no place on this site.

Oh, jeez. I'm just giving him grief about the last bet he backed out of. They hardly do any damage because no one ever takes them up.

The point is simply that people need to measure their words. O5F is always stating a position of extremity as if it's fact. And the only way to have him back off of it is to leverage it against something real world.

I won't do it anymore, which is fine.

But how's it divisive, in the end? Divisive? Does O5F get his friends and I keep mine in the divorce? Or? I mean, no one's being forced into anything, and no one's even being insulted. There are things that cross a line, but sheesh. That's hardly it.

What does have a place on the board?

[Old#5fan]

Not one iota better?

Let's start by identifying which players we're losing from last season: Mora, Huff (1/2 year). What exactly are we losing?

Next, the players who (in the aggregate) will almost certainly improve their production over last year. Some may go up, some may go down, of course: Wieters, Jones, Pie, Reimold, Markakis.

Finally, the "who knows?" group of established guys who could go up or down as a whole: Roberts, Izturis, Scott/DH

Considering it's very likely that the growth in production of group #2 above far exceeds any potential decline in production from group #3, and the replacements for group #1 can't really be worse than last year's group of guys, it's almost a certainty that the O's offense will improve at least one iota from last season.

You are only looking at what Huff and Mora actually produced last season. They both were expected to produce (on paper) a lot more, especially Huff. So the offense overall did not fulfill expectations last year. I don't see how it can be expected to be better than what was expected at the beginning of last season because on paper right now it is not as good. Think about it, Huff was projected to produce numbers a heck of a lot better than anyone on our roster right now that is going to play first base. Same with Mora at third.

[Lucky Jim]

You are only looking at what Huff and Mora actually produced last season. They both were expected to produce (on paper) a lot more, especially Huff.

Huh? You're saying that the Orioles offense isn't better than some hypothetical projection of last year? How is that relevant to anything?

[Sports Guy]

Add me to the list of folks who consider bets like this divisive and as having no place on this site.

That depends on who leaves.

[Lucky Jim]

That depends on who leaves.

Hah. I'm pretty sure you'd be okay with either of us gone.

Though I'd miss you, you big lug.

[Old#5fan]

Huh? You're saying that the Orioles offense isn't better than some hypothetical projection of last year? How is that relevant to anything?

Its relative in that Huff is being replaced by someone (Atkins, Aubrey, or Scott) any of which would not be expected to put up the Huff numbers from 2008 which is what Huff was anticpated providing last season.

Same with Mora. We are getting inferior replacements to both Huff and Mora when they were at the top of their game.

[Lucky Jim]

Its relative in that Huff is being replaced by someone (Atkins, Aubrey, or Scott) any of which would not be expected to put up the Huff numbers from 2008 which is what Huff was anticpated providing last season.

Same with Mora.

You said our offense isn't improved from last season. Does that or does it not mean scoring more runs than we actually scored last year?

[Old#5fan]

You said our offense isn't improved from last season. Does that or does it not mean scoring more runs than we actually scored last year?

I see it as about the same honestly. However, that is a good bit worse than what was expected from last year. I think Huff, Mora, and Markakis all were projected to hit better than they actually did and in the case of Huff and Mora a lot better.

[mcgraw238]

I doubt many predicted it for last season, but up until last year many did think Markakis had 30+ potential. I still think he does, but last year was certainly less-than-impressive.

Agreed that there may be that potential. I think it would be in a career type year which is likely still a couple years away since NM is only 26. I just want Old#5fan to show where anyone predicted that Nick would hit 30 HRs in the 2009 season.

[Frobby]

I just don't see where you get your optimism as our offense on paper is not one iota better than last season's club, and possibly worse.

Well, would you like to make a wager against the proposition that the Orioles will win more than 7 games against the Yankees and Red Sox this year?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, would you like to make a wager against the proposition that the Orioles will win more than 7 games against the Yankees and Red Sox this year?

Careful, you may offend.

Add me to the list of folks who consider bets like this divisive and as having no place on this site.

[Sanfran327]

Its relative in that Huff is being replaced by someone (Atkins, Aubrey, or Scott) any of which would not be expected to put up the Huff numbers from 2008 which is what Huff was anticpated providing last season.

Same with Mora. We are getting inferior replacements to both Huff and Mora when they were at the top of their game.

The only thing I've ever expected Aubrey Huff to be is drunk after a baseball game. His 2008 was awesome, but nobody expected it that winter, and surely nobody here expected him to duplicate it in 2009. That was a career year for 99% of MLB players.

Same goes for Mora. You can't expect a guy to cary your team when he's clearly spending most of his time filing for Social Security and filling out his AARP paperwork.

You said our offense isn't improved from last season. Does that or does it not mean scoring more runs than we actually scored last year?

He will continue to change the scope of the argument, like he's trying to do now by saying he does not want to compare actual results from last season, but rather the projected results. Because that tells us a lot.

I see it as about the same honestly. However, that is a good bit worse than what was expected from last year. I think Huff, Mora, and Markakis all were projected to hit better than they actually did and in the case of Huff and Mora a lot better.

Oldfan, I typically agree with a lot of things you say, but coming from someone who was picking on Hank Scorpio (I think) just a little while ago for "back pedaling" during a debate, it seems you should take your own advice here and be mindful of your posts.

[tommyboy]

Hank,

If given the choice who would you rather have at 3rd base Miggy or Crede ? Tejada does have have baggage and declining numbers, but if he performs well he's good trade bait come July.

[Frobby]

I see it as about the same honestly. However, that is a good bit worse than what was expected from last year. I think Huff, Mora, and Markakis all were projected to hit better than they actually did and in the case of Huff and Mora a lot better.

Two years ago, the Orioles scored 782 runs. Based on the players acquired in the winter of 2009, PECOTA projected the Orioles to score 821 runs last year. They fell woefully short, scoring 741 runs, which was 41 runs below 2008 and 80 runs below projections. Mind you, PECOTA isn't an Orioles fan. So logically, one would expect some rebound in 2010.

I recently ran a spreadsheet using ZiPS and CHONE projections for the current Orioles players for 2010, using certain assumptions I made about how the plate appearances will be allocated. ZiPS had us at .762 OPS, CHONE at .771. For reference, in 2008 we were at .762, in 2009 we were at .747.

Based on this, it is reasonable to believe the offense should score as many runs as it did in 2008, and possibly a few more. If 1B is upgraded, it could be quite a few more than in 2008. Either way, it should be a good bit more than in 2009.

Note that everything I've said here is based on objective sources, not my own opinions about how players will do next year. It doesn't mean those sources are correct; projections by their nature are only estimates and stuff happens.

[brooksie05]

In 1991, the Twins beat the Braves 4 games to 3 in the World Series.

The previous season, both teams finished last in their respective divisions.

And baseball was eons different back then.