The Great Tillman Debate

[Lucky Jim]

It's a valid concern.

Valid concerns do not mean:

Tillman needs to be traded long before this happens.

That you conflate or confuse the two points to your own intellectual limitations.

[Stotle]

Tillman's stuff is not so electric that he can get away with sketchy command. His fastball is a decent pitch, but it doesn't have a ton of run or sink so he needs to spot it well. His curveball is his best pitch but some have argued that batters pick it up well and if he's not getting over for strikes, they are ignoring it.

When a guy is not doing these things effectively, he should not be in the big leagues when there are better options. I'm a firm believer it's a lot easier to get a guy to work on some things in the minors then it is in the majors. Too much pressure to perform in the big leagues.

Either way, if Tillman was a throwing 96-97 MPH with an electric fastball but command was an issue it would be different. Tillman is a 91-94 guy with some run, but it's not an electric pitch. If he doesn't gain command, then he may have to be converted into a bullpen guy to see if he throws harder that way or his ceiling becomes a 4th/5th starter due to the fact his pitch counts will be high.

I believe players can gain more command as their body mature and I believe Tillman will one of those guys. He has the aptitude, he just needs more experience. As long as we're going with guys like David Hernandez instead of the Adam Eaton's of the world, I'm fine with Tillman learning that command in the minors.

Why eat up service time and arbitration clock time while you are still learning to pitch?

All reasonable thoughts. I actually like his fastball a fair amount, particularly if he's able to throw his change and curve for strikes (both of which I've seen as plus pitches last year). He can change eye levels and change speeds between all three offerings. He can also come on a tough plane, though I haven't seen his slot this spring.

One thing he lacks is an effective pitch to run away from a righty, but I think he has enough raw stuff to be effective -- certainly as a mid-rotation arm. Again, I'm not digging in on anything until I see him in April, but I was very impressed with the raw stuff when I saw it. Not "electric", as you point out, but the change and curve are both quality pitches and his fastball is plenty good to pitch off of if he's throwing his secondaries for strikes.

He's actually someone I could see developing into an arm that pitches backwards some -- helping his fastball to play-up even more. He doesn't need to have a Feliz fastball to be a very effective pitcher, but I agree everything has to work well (and from your reports and others', I guess that isn't the case right now).

[Mackus]

Either you aren't intepreting the data correctly, define great in a different way or pitchFX is very flawed...I am not sure which it is but it is definitely one of those.

Its not "definitely" one of those things.

PitchFX obivously isn't "very flawed". That's a crazy claim, its a very good tool. But, it also isn't "perfect" as Ty thinks it is, that's an equally if not more absurd of a claim.

Not all stats will line up with what you expect, that doesn't mean they are very flawed, just that there are going to be weird outliers in any statistical measure. Tillman's got great stuff, but it hasn't always been consistent. Perhaps his lack of consistency isn't driven as much from a lack of movement when he doesn't rip a good one off, but moreso from lack of deception. I think its very likely that the PitchFX data shows an accurate description of how well Tillman's pitches are moving, but that doesn't necessarily mean that his stuff is electric or isn't electric or is consistent or inconsistent. It just means the pitches move a lot relative to other pitchers.

[JTrea81]

Valid concerns do not mean:

That you conflate or confuse the two points to your own intellectual limitations.

Uh, don't you think we should trade Tillman before we convert him into a bullpen arm, or determine he's no more than a #4-#5 starter?

As a TOR prospect he carries much more value than a MR or a #4-#5 starter.

There is such a thing as trade value, and for Tillman, his hype and thus trade value could fall quickly as it has risen if it looks like he won't reach his ceiling.

[mweb]

It's a valid concern. We've seen the Orioles hang onto too many pitching prospects waiting for them to blossom into the pitcher that they were hyped to be.

We expected Tillman to be in the rotation this ST and he proved he wasn't ready. There is a chance he might not make it back as a starter as Tony pointed out.

So we might need to sell high, or we could very well have missed our opportunity to do so.

Tillman isn't the first Orioles prospect at a young age to flash that kind of potential.

Can we get a list of guys who have?

He also didn't prove he wasn't ready, DH just showed that he may be more ready. He's just shy of 22, plenty of reason for patience.

And basically all teams that develop top pitching prospects hang onto some that don't live up to the hype. That's just the nature of the game. The key is to have enough guys that you can afford to miss on some and to be good at identifying who will and won't pan out. The latter is easier said than done, and forgive me, but I don't have more confidence in your ability to that than I do in AM and the rest of the O's staff.

[Tony-OH]

This is where you wrong. His PitchFX data already says his stuff is great.

This is where you are wrong. Major hitters say his stuff is not. PitchFX is a tool, not the end all be all when discussing the quality of stuff.

A pitch can have a lot of break (curveball), but if hitters pick it up early and can lay off it, it's not a good pitch. A pitch is only good when it's getting batters out.

[Sports Guy]

Its not "definitely" one of those things.

PitchFX obivously isn't "very flawed". That's a crazy claim, its a very good tool. But, it also isn't "perfect" as Ty thinks it is, that's an equally if not more absurd of a claim.

Not all stats will line up with what you expect, that doesn't mean they are very flawed, just that there are going to be weird outliers in any statistical measure. Tillman's got great stuff, but it hasn't always been consistent. Perhaps his lack of consistency isn't driven as much from a lack of movement when he doesn't rip a good one off, but moreso from lack of deception. I think its very likely that the PitchFX data shows an accurate description of how well Tillman's pitches are moving, but that doesn't necessarily mean that his stuff is electric or isn't electric or is consistent or inconsistent. It just means the pitches move a lot relative to other pitchers.

Yes it is...It is clearly one of those things...His stuff isn't great. You just said his stuff isn't consistent...That means its not great.

His stuff will be great at some point IMO...but its not there yet.

[Hank Scorpio]

The cutter's a good idea for Tillman.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Tillman's swinging strike percentage without contact last year was 12%. The MLB average was 15%. His contact% was 83% while the league average was 80%. Both stats are good indicators of one's "stuff."

Pitch F/X is very helpful in that we can use the information to help isolate why batters got their bats on the ball well despite good movement and velocity (I haven't looked into this just taking TyCobb's word). We can look at other factors like how well is he hiding the ball, is he throwing strikes but not locating the strikes well, is his pitch selection predictable?

[Stotle]

I think myself, Tony and anyone else with the ability to see and evaluate a pitcher have a better understanding if PitchFX says his stuff, in its current fashion, is GREAT.

Either you aren't intepreting the data correctly, define great in a different way or pitchFX is very flawed...I am not sure which it is but it is definitely one of those.

Well, the data is useful but needs context. I also think it hits some things that evaluators miss with their eyes.

However, without context it can be very misleading. How often is he throwing each pitch? What are the sequences? Does he change sequences? Does he tip?

You can have great raw stuff and have the effectiveness of that stuff limited at the ML level because hitters are SOOOOOOO good. They pick up on everything -- patterns, tips, whether a pitch is more hittable in a particular zone -- everything. So, it's quite possible that you, Pitch FX, Ty, Tony and the Orioles are all correct. These viewpoints aren't necessarily contradictory at the broader level that they are being discussed.

Of course, maybe I just made all that up and none of it is true....

[JTrea81]

The cutter's a good idea for Tillman.

He was supposedly working on one. So what happened?

[Mackus]

Yes it is...It is clearly one of those things...His stuff isn't great. You just said his stuff isn't consistent...That means its not great.

His stuff will be great at some point IMO...but its not there yet.

Not what I'm talking about at all.

You listed 3 scenarios, one of which is that PitchFX is "very flawed". I'm arguing that PitchFX definitively is not "very flawed". He may be misinterpreting what it means, but the raw data is not very flawed, and it does show accurately how much Tillman's pitches moved.

[Stotle]

This is where you are wrong. Major hitters say his stuff is not. PitchFX is a tool, not the end all be all when discussing the quality of stuff.

A pitch can have a lot of break (curveball), but if hitters pick it up early and can lay off it, it's not a good pitch. A pitch is only good when it's getting batters out.

Didn't see this. This is what I was getting at, but more succinctly put.

[tvz1997]

He was supposedly working on one. So what happened?

??? He's still working on it -- used it in ST games.

[Babypowder]

ST is largely a case by case thing. Guthrie has had a terrible spring, no one is arguing that. But you can't throw out three years of relative stability over one bad spring.

Guthrie needs to be on a short leash, no doubt about that.

Guthrie hasn't been stable since the first half of '08. He has struggled since then in the regular season, the WBC, and two spring trainings.