The Great Tillman Debate

[mweb]

Loewen was way up there as well...But of course, both Riley and Loewen had injury issues that held them back.

Ok, well yeah, the arm issues were the main problem with both as you say.

[TyCobb]

Without out quoting a bunch of posts....

I never said PITHf/x was prefect.

Tony...Orginally I was very dissppointed about this decision, but in one post I responded saying I think it is the best move for the O's to make now. I think DH can be a quality SP and he isn't going to be giving the same amount of patience to develop as Tillman.

TGO...I don't trust those PitchFX averages on fangraphs for movement.

[Sports Guy]

I am confused, four 24 hours you said that CT going to AA was a"terrible" decision. Then you now argue that his "stuff" needs work. Am I the only one that notices some irony?

Probably...because the idea that he can only work on that in AAA is incorrect.

I question how much he will get out of going to the minors.

I have never said Tillman is some perfect prospect that has no room for improvement.

[eddie83]

This same organization apparently thought whatever he was doing to dominate AAA last year was going to work in the majors. If they thought he was ready to pitch in the big leagues last year then a half season of growing pains and a handful of spring outings shouldn't change their minds IMO.

Using that logic Hernandez and Berken should both be in the rotation right now. I doubt the Orioles thought Tillman was going to come up last year and set the world on fire. He was called up because there weren't any better options. Rich Hill had just finished his outstanding year:) and Koji was hurt, Millwood was in Texas at the time. He got his feet wet in a season going nowhere with poor options. The Orioles may well of had no plan to bring him up last year at all. Comparing a roster decision 2 days before the Orioles traded Sherrill and when they were 15 games under .500 in a rebuilding year to Opening Day the next year is apples to oranges.

The Orioles aren't going to go anywhere putting players in the majors if they don't think they are ready for it. The mindset changed after last year, MacPhail has said so. It's not like this guy has had several great years at AAA and has been left to rot.

[amateurfan]

There are clearly some provocative and interesting ideas here. Now, I haven't "studied" brain development for nine years, so it's entirely possible my common-sense (already lost you?) take on your ideas will be wildly off-base. That said, I don't buy (yet) that "brain development" is the catalyst that sparks a player's prime - it seems as yet fairly speculative. Is it a component? Sure. But is there analysis out there that controls for other factors? (I.e., the repetitions reached by a certain age, for instance?) There's a correlation in there (if delayed) but no evidence of primary causation.

First, thank you for the long, thoughtful response. I did not want to quote all of it because it was so good.

Second, I'm a teacher, not a scientist, and just so no one gets the wrong idea, I don't study neuroscience. I read research as it relates to human development so that I can do my job better. Assessing human progress properly is not easy for me. I think that baseball has the best system in place to most accurately judge ability.

Lastly, my major point has been nothing other than when assessing a player through stats alone, age should only be used as a very general indicator of potential because development is so peculiar. In a situation like the one this spring, stats are not going to tell us much without good, thorough, specific scouting: has a pitch improved, velocity, control, mechanics, tempo, et al. Unfortunately, scouting tends to be viewed as subjective too much. Good scouts can quantify what they see.

Specifically here, Tillman's age alone is not an indicator of potential. It may be, but this can only be deduced by those watching him.

Thanks again.

[Flosman]

Probably...because the idea that he can only work on that in AAA is incorrect.

I question how much he will get out of going to the minors.

I have never said Tillman is some perfect prospect that has no room for improvement.

You are correct he can work on it at the ML level. I think this is how alot of teams look at this sort of thing. Guess what it is not how the O's of my younger days looked at it, it is not how Earl looked at it. You are seeing the old Oriole Way IMO and you don't recognize it. If things break right for the O's DH estalishes himself has a good ML starter, Guthrie regains a little trade value, hell maybe even Millwood becomes expedable and Tillman bears down on exactly what he needs to be better at. This is what happened with DH, he fell out of the SP picture in MOST peoples eyes, he knew it, everyone knew it. He obviously worked on some stuff or he had a lucky 15-20 innings, who knows. But EVERY prospect saw this, when you get your shot be READY. Now lucky for Tillman he is a stud and he will get atleast several more opportunities to prove himself. But all of the others see the days of running Dcab out there hoping he learns how to pitch in the Majors are over in Baltimore. This is not bad even if DH goes back to the way he was last season. Which I think is very unlikely.

[Stotle]

Just as points of comparison, BOS did something similar with Buchholz (though I think his issues were a little larger than what I saw from Tillman alst year).

TEX is doing the same this year with Derek Holland, who was considered by some to be a top 25 prospect heading into last year.

SFN is doing this with Bumgarner to start year, as well.

[trk001]

So do we change the thread title or what?

[RShack]

Ty's last post made me ponder this: is there anything preventing the O's from giving Norfolk a whole bunch of ML baseballs to use during side sessions instead of the minor league ones? Do they do this already?

What keeps the AAA leagues from using ML baseballs all the time? You'd think it would bother everybody for the same reason it bothers you. How much money can they be saving by using inferior baseballs? The whole using-different-baseballs story seems like a good example of saving a little bit of money foolishly.

[TGO]

What keeps the AAA leagues from using ML baseballs all the time? You'd think it would bother everybody for the same reason it bothers you. How much money can they be saving by using inferior baseballs? The whole using-different-baseballs story seems like a good example of saving a little bit of money foolishly.

Well, I'm sure they're required to use the official Minor League ball.

But as for why there's an official Minor League ball in the first place, that's a really good question. Presumably it's a somewhat cheaper product but I think you're right, that's not really a good enough reason to outweigh the benefit of judging how everyone plays using the same baseball they'll use in the majors.

I think the ML ball retails for about 2x the price of the MiL ball, but there's no way it actually costs 2x as much to make. Part of the 2x in price has to be the ML branding on it. Collectors always want to get autographs on ML balls and therefore will pay more.

The only thing I can think of is that all the ML balls are stitched by hand in one factory in Costa Rica, and maybe they just can't stitch any more than they already do there. The rest are hand stitched in China. But why can't they train the Chinese seam stitchers (and probably hire more of them and pay them more so they take their time) to do the same stitches?

[Babypowder]

Using that logic Hernandez and Berken should both be in the rotation right now. I doubt the Orioles thought Tillman was going to come up last year and set the world on fire. He was called up because there weren't any better options. Rich Hill had just finished his outstanding year:) and Koji was hurt, Millwood was in Texas at the time. He got his feet wet in a season going nowhere with poor options. The Orioles may well of had no plan to bring him up last year at all. Comparing a roster decision 2 days before the Orioles traded Sherrill and when they were 15 games under .500 in a rebuilding year to Opening Day the next year is apples to oranges.

The Orioles aren't going to go anywhere putting players in the majors if they don't think they are ready for it. The mindset changed after last year, MacPhail has said so. It's not like this guy has had several great years at AAA and has been left to rot.

Tillman has outperformed both of them at every level and at younger ages. Aside from that, I'd bet he is a better pitcher than Guthrie right now.

[eddie83]

Tillman has outperformed both of them at every level and at younger ages. Aside from that, I'd bet he is a better pitcher than Guthrie right now.

That means what at this moment? MLB results aren't based on minor league stats. You build a MLB roster with Major Leaguers not guys who have pretty numbers in the Minors. The Orioles are in the winning games business. If he doesn't have the command to get out MLB hitters this moment what good are hus numbers going to do?

Based on what can you say he is better than Guthrie right now? What does Tillman do better right now?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Well, I'm sure they're required to use the official Minor League ball.

But as for why there's an official Minor League ball in the first place, that's a really good question.

Just a guess, or a couple of guesses. Of course MLB and Minor League Baseball are separate entities. And the specs of the MLB ball are always subject to change, quietly and without notice.

Possibly MiLB wants to maintain consistent specs, and doesn't want to chase the specs of the MLB ball from season to season.

Or possibly, as you suggest, there isn't the production capacity to supply all professional teams with the same ball, especially after a change of specs. (Remember we are talking about almost 20 leagues and 200 teams).

[Babypowder]

That means what at this moment? MLB results aren't based on minor league stats. You build a MLB roster with Major Leaguers not guys who have pretty numbers in the Minors. The Orioles are in the winning games business. If he doesn't have the command to get out MLB hitters this moment what good are hus numbers going to do?

Based on what can you say he is better than Guthrie right now? What does Tillman do better right now?

Tillman was better than both Hernandez and Berken in the major leagues last year, granted none of them were good. Since it appears you want to base it off of spring training alone, I would say Tillman is better than Guthrie at just about everything.

Guthrie has not been good in quite some time now. The last half of '08, The WBC, last spring, all of last season, and this spring to be exact.

[Stotle]

Posted this in Hank's recent thread, but figured it fits here too. Pretty much a 100% indisputable reason for starting Tillman at AAA:

Trembley didn't want to elaborate, but he noted how Tillman needs to become more consistent with his delivery, "and the consistency of his pitches will follow."

If he isn't repeating he has no chance of succeeding at the ML level. Sounds like there may be a little more (I'd wager it's on the mental/approach side), but this is enough for me. I think it's great news, because if his mechanics are in-and-out, his command should stand to improve as he irons that out.