Cafardo: Orioles have long been interested in AGon

[Sports Guy]

I could see him taking a Holliday-type deal. I don't see him getting more than that in free agency unless he has another MVP-caliber season, and even then he'll still be closer to that deal than Teixeira's deal.

I doubt he signs an extension, but that's the only way I'd consider trading for him.

The thing is, he is going to get traded this July in all likelihood...So, unless he really has a bad first half, he is going to be looking at a huge contract coming off of last year.

While he won't deserve anything close to that, he will still want it and if he doesn't get a bigger deal, especially from a non-contender, he isn't going to extend.

We are likely going to have to come to the table with at least a 7/140 deal...and on top of that, we are going to have to trade 4 or 5 quality young players for him.

There is no scenario where that is a smart thing to do unless they end up valuing guys like DH and BB higher than Tillman, Britton and Arrieta, which I doubt.

[El Gordo]

But how much are you willing to give?

He has already said he wants Tex money. Are you ok with that?

You're the one who doesn't think AM has the stomach for big FA contracts. Sounds like you're just like him. I wouldn't pay Tex money to Tex, but who would you pay to play 1B for the O's, and how much? I know I'm going to get the usual equivocation, but I thought I'd ask anyway.:rolleyestf:

[Sports Guy]

You're the one who doesn't think AM has the stomach for biig FA contracts. SouNds like you're just like him. I wouldn't pay Tex money to Tex, but who would you pay to play 1B for the O's, and how much? I know I'm going to get the usual equivication, bit I thought I'd ask anyway.:rolleyestf:

I am like AM when it comes to the big contracts...I think they are mostly a bad idea.

I would have no issue giving AGon a 6 year deal in that 110-120 range as a FA. But giving up a ton of players and a much bigger deal? Just makes no sense.

Whatever package you want to offer for AGon, go offer that deal for Votto and sign that guy to an extension...a player that is still in his arb years(or maybe pre arb years still?)

And again, as I have said several times about AM, I think he will only make a big trade or sign a big name FA if he thinks he is getting a bargain..Nothing in his history suggests that isn't true.

[Smokin' Joe O]

I'm starting to think that if we try to organically become a contender, it just might not ever happen. In some ways, I think we need to make a run at it. We are better positioned to do this than we have been for years. We have promising young pitchers and talented supporting players. If we add one or two big bats, who knows what can happen.

It's a nice thing to say you're going to home grow an entire team, but at some point, you have to make the moves to put your team in position to compete/contend. Also, half the reason you draft a million young pitchers is to give yourself something of value, right?

[LookinUp]

Whatever package you want to offer for AGon, go offer that deal for Votto and sign that guy to an extension...a player that is still in his arb years(or maybe pre arb years still?)

Exactly, or Justin Morneau, or even Alonso.

There should be 1-2 1bs available who can really help the lineup. Don't overpay at the top of the market.

[mweb]

No, I'm not OK with that because he isn't in the same class as Tex.

I'm thinking (perhaps incorrectly) that AGon and the O's can come to an agreement in a new contract that includes a very large raise for AGon - but not Tex money.

I admit that trading for AGon with the idea of signing him to an contract extension would be a risk, but we've got to do something to upgrade the offense.

Now you see why I choose not to spell extension as you say in this case.

He won't be worth what we have to pay. I'd rather just go out and sign a guy like Lee, Pena, Werth, or Dunn than trade a bunch for AGon and then give him a contract that is more than we should.

[Smokin' Joe O]

Now you see why I choose not to spell extension as you say in this case.

He won't be worth what we have to pay. I'd rather just go out and sign a guy like Lee, Pena, Werth, or Dunn than trade a bunch for AGon and then give him a contract that is more than we should.

Assuming you think AGon would perform better than any of the players you mentioned, why would you be more willing to sign one of those players?

Aren't we pretty close to the point where we should add the 1-2 pieces we believe can put us over the top? We don't want to fall into a situation with some of our core players like we did with Roberts for example. For years he was a dependable, top of the lineup guy. He's still pretty good but getting older. His prime was wasted because we weren't ready to compete.

Now, back then, we didn't have too many choices as we had plenty of holes to fill. But right now, we basically need two bats and a SS to be pretty close to contending. We don't want to look up in 4-5 years and realize that Markakis and/or Jones have peaked and we still haven't put some real sluggers in the lineup with them.

[mweb]

Assuming you think AGon would perform better than any of the players you mentioned' date=' why would you be more willing to sign one of those players?

Aren't we pretty close to the point where we should add the 1-2 pieces we believe can put us over the top? We don't want to fall into a situation with some of our core players like we did with Roberts for example. For years he was a dependable, top of the lineup guy. He's still pretty good but getting older. His prime was wasted because we weren't ready to compete.

Now, back then, we didn't have too many choices as we had plenty of holes to fill. But right now, we basically need two bats and a SS to be pretty close to contending. We don't want to look up in 4-5 years and realize that Markakis and/or Jones have peaked and we still haven't put some real sluggers in the lineup with them.[/quote']

Because I don't think his performance will be so much better that it will justify the loss of multiple young, cheap players who would contribute to the team and the extra money spent that can be used for something else.

So having one of the guys I mentioned plus whatever guys out of Reimold, Jones, Pie, Tillman, Britton, Arrieta, Erbe, Snyder, etc, plus having a little extra money > AGon.

[Sports Guy]

Because I don't think his performance will be so much better that it will justify the loss of multiple young, cheap players who would contribute to the team and the extra money spent that can be used for something else.

So having one of the guys I mentioned plus whatever guys out of Reimold, Jones, Pie, Tillman, Britton, Arrieta, Erbe, Snyder, etc, plus having a little extra money > AGon.

The other thing that people never seem to get when talking about this is that you can use those players in another package to get other pieces...For example, let's say you sign Carlos Pena and keep all those guys...Now, maybe you can use some of those players you would have traded for AGon and get Escobar.

Again, that's just an example but we are a better team in that scenario...with more money, more players and more areas filled.

[Smokin' Joe O]

Because I don't think his performance will be so much better that it will justify the loss of multiple young, cheap players who would contribute to the team and the extra money spent that can be used for something else.

So having one of the guys I mentioned plus whatever guys out of Reimold, Jones, Pie, Tillman, Britton, Arrieta, Erbe, Snyder, etc, plus having a little extra money > AGon.

OK, that answers my question. I guess I just believe we have to eventually shift the balance of power by acquiring some power. If we don't, we're just clinging to the hope that someone will come up through our system and be that middle-of-the-lineup presence that we haven't had in years.

I don't believe we can ever compete in the East without pop in the lineup. We'd struggle even if we had 5 Matuszes in our rotation because you need to score in the AL East.

[ShadyIce]

Can anyone tell me if these 1 for 3-5 guys trades EVER work for the team who's getting the one player?

I honestly can't remember any but I do remember a few that worked quite well for the team receiving prospects.

I'm sorry, did you forget the Glenn Davis trade?

[Mackus]

Now you see why I choose not to spell extension as you say in this case.

He won't be worth what we have to pay. I'd rather just go out and sign a guy like Lee, Pena, Werth, or Dunn than trade a bunch for AGon and then give him a contract that is more than we should.

I think Pena would be a great target. He has the huge power that we really need in the middle of the order and he's really good at taking walks, making up for his poor average. I don't know if he's gonna be a guy who ages gracefully, though, and he'll be 33 next year. I'd be nervous about anything longer than a 4-year deal, but maybe something in the 4/$60M range gets it done, similar to a Jason Bay type deal.

Lee would be a solid option as well, although I'd prefer Pena even though he'll cost more. But if Lee will take a 2-year deal, then maybe he becomes the better option.

I have zero interest in Dunn unless he agrees to DH.

[Sports Guy]

I think Pena would be a great target. He has the huge power that we really need in the middle of the order and he's really good at taking walks, making up for his poor average. I don't know if he's gonna be a guy who ages gracefully, though, and he'll be 33 next year. I'd be nervous about anything longer than a 4-year deal, but maybe something in the 4/$60M range gets it done, similar to a Jason Bay type deal.

Lee would be a solid option as well, although I'd prefer Pena even though he'll cost more. But if Lee will take a 2-year deal, then maybe he becomes the better option.

I have zero interest in Dunn unless he agrees to DH.

Didn't you just say that we don't NEED a middle of the order bat?

[Smokin' Joe O]

I think Pena would be a great target. He has the huge power that we really need in the middle of the order and he's really good at taking walks, making up for his poor average. I don't know if he's gonna be a guy who ages gracefully, though, and he'll be 33 next year. I'd be nervous about anything longer than a 4-year deal, but maybe something in the 4/$60M range gets it done, similar to a Jason Bay type deal.

Lee would be a solid option as well, although I'd prefer Pena even though he'll cost more. But if Lee will take a 2-year deal, then maybe he becomes the better option.

I have zero interest in Dunn unless he agrees to DH.

I love the idea of Pena...how likely is it that we'd have a shot at him?

[Mackus]

I'm sorry, did you forget the Glenn Davis trade?

I think you misread his post. Unless you think the Glenn Davis trade worked out really well for the Orioles.