Billy Rowell is stirring...

[Greg Pappas]

I don't get this mentality. If Rowell were just this year drafted out of college, and had these same figures, would we throw a fit and write him off, OR allow time to determine his true status as a prospect? My point is that many see Rowell as a failed prospect, but don't give enough weight to his age in the equation. I understand that it's not just his struggles to post quality numbers, but also the inability to make adjustments.

BTW, he's just a few months older than Trent Mummey, our 4th-rounder. I don't know, but I'm not writing him off just yet. Just my two cents.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't get this mentality. If Rowell were just this year drafted out of college, and had these same figures, would we throw a fit and write him off, OR allow time to determine his true status as a prospect?

If Rowell were a top 10 overall pick out of college this season then he would have a recent history of high level play. I would therefor be much more willing to cut him some slack over his struggles this season.

[McLovin]

I don't get this mentality. If Rowell were just this year drafted out of college, and had these same figures, would we throw a fit and write him off, OR allow time to determine his true status as a prospect? My point is that many see Rowell as a failed prospect, but don't give enough weight to his age in the equation. I understand that it's not just his struggles to post quality numbers, but also the inability to make adjustments.

BTW, he's just a few months older than Trent Mummey, our 4th-rounder. I don't know, but I'm not writing him off just yet. Just my two cents.

The problem is, that literally no one who has seen him in person on this board has come away with a positive impression. Stats are nice and all - not that his are even good - but I listen more to the feedback from people who have seen him. And it's never good.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't get this mentality. If Rowell were just this year drafted out of college, and had these same figures, would we throw a fit and write him off, OR allow time to determine his true status as a prospect? My point is that many see Rowell as a failed prospect, but don't give enough weight to his age in the equation. I understand that it's not just his struggles to post quality numbers, but also the inability to make adjustments.

BTW, he's just a few months older than Trent Mummey, our 4th-rounder. I don't know, but I'm not writing him off just yet. Just my two cents.

If Billy Rowell was a top-10 pick in 2008 ot 2009 after several years as a top hitter in college, and he put up a .700-ish OPS with all of his current concerns (atleticism, hitting approach, fielding inadequacy) in high A he'd be getting quite a bit of criticism, quite a lot of questions.

Tony Sanchez was the Pirates' pick in 2009 out of college. He's in high A now and has a pro OPS over .900, as a catcher. Grant Green is another 2009 pick out of college, and he's in high A putting up far better numbers than Rowell as a shortstop. Gordon Beckham was taken about the same spot in the draft as Rowell, but out of college in 2008, and he's a disappointment - in his second year in the majors. Similar with Justin Smoak, getting his feet wet in the majors only a year or so after being drafted out of college.

Would anyone go so far out on a limb as to project Rowell in the majors in a year or two? It's not just implausible, but maybe laughably improbable.

Even if you somehow conjure up a situation where Rowell is a first-year pro player out of college he'd have all kinds of concerns as a defensively-challenged guy with a subpar bat and other issues.

[DrungoHazewood]

If Rowell were a top 10 overall pick out of college this season then he would have a recent history of high level play. I would therefor be much more willing to cut him some slack over his struggles this season.

Exactly. College hitters who're top 10 draft picks and go straight to high A at 21 do so because they raked in college. When Rowell was putting up .650 OPSes and booting grounders his second time around the Carolina League, these college kids were hitting .380 with power and athleticism in the NCAA.

If Rowell was playing like he's playing now a year after being some kind of Anthony Rendon in college the scouting world would be in collective disbelief.

[NewMarketSean]

His OBP is .100 higher than his average, so that is at least good.

But his slugging % is pathetic. He needs to start hitting the freaking ball.

He may not be done as a prospect just yet but he has to start showing us something.

[LookinUp]

I don't rule out that there's some small chance he can come around with the bat. Still, how good would he have to be to actually justify his glove at any position? By all reports, he's a total stiff in the field. It's hard to see his bat as ever being good enough, even with substantial improvement.

[NewMarketSean]

Maybe they should just make him a DH and have him focus 100% on hitting. He has always been a defensive liability no matter where he plays...so just make him the DH.

[Tony-OH]

The problem with Rowell is even if his bat miraculously came around, he's still atrocious anywhere in the field and his lack of athleticism suggests he would even be a poor 1st baseman.

He'd probably be something like a 20th round or later draft pick he were drafted now.

[DocJJ]

Go on Baseballamerica.com and pull up the 1st rounds for the past 10 years. Sure, there are some studs and All-Stars there, but over 90% didn't ever wear a Major League uniform. So, Rowell joins the hundreds of other former 1st rounders who never amounted to anything.

I've completely moved on from him, I suggest you all do the same.

[Frobby]

Go on Baseballamerica.com and pull up the 1st rounds for the past 10 years. Sure, there are some studs and All-Stars there, but over 90% didn't ever wear a Major League uniform. So, Rowell joins the hundreds of other former 1st rounders who never amounted to anything.

I've completely moved on from him, I suggest you all do the same.

That statement is totally false. Just looking at the draft Rowell was in, 21 of 44 guys chosen in the first round (including the 1st round supplemental) have played in the majors already. And some guys who haven't done it yet will get to the majors eventually. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2006&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg

So yes there are a lot of first round busts, but please don't exaggerate, it undermines your point.

[PBR Street Gang]

... Just looking at the draft Rowell was in, 21 of 44 guys chosen in the first round (including the 1st round supplemental) have played in the majors already. And some guys who haven't done it yet will get to the majors eventually. ...

This was the first nail in the Jordan coffin for me. We probably would have done a better job drafting if we were on AUTOPICK.

[DrungoHazewood]

That statement is totally false. Just looking at the draft Rowell was in, 21 of 44 guys chosen in the first round (including the 1st round supplemental) have played in the majors already. And some guys who haven't done it yet will get to the majors eventually. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2006&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg

So yes there are a lot of first round busts, but please don't exaggerate, it undermines your point.

Yes, this. The draft is something of a crapshoot compared to the NFL. But most 1st rounders play in the majors, and a significant percentage of second or even third rounders, too. Top-10 picks are clearly more valuable than guys from later picks or rounds.

Out of the 2005-2006 drafts do you know there are only two guys taken in the top 10 picks who haven't played in the majors? Rowell and Wade Townsend (after the Rays took him). Even in the 2007 draft half of the top 10 has already played in the majors. In 2002 only 2 of the top 20 haven't played in the majors.

[wtravlor]

This was the first nail in the Jordan coffin for me. We probably would have done a better job drafting if we were on AUTOPICK.

This is crazy, so Matusz, Wieters, were just luck? Rowell was rated pretty high! So lots of people thought this was a good pick. I believe some of this has more to with how we bring our hitters a long in the minors. Something that Jordan doesnt look to have control over. Now with that said Rowell has seemed to have alot of make it or break it years, for being 21. Im not going to give up on him but he is not a core player.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

The fact is every team is going to have there bust in the first round, you are just going to have to accept it as that is how the game of baseball works. Now there are steps your scoting department can take to either lower the risk of a bust by more research or make up for it in later rounds. I think we have done a great job finding solid prospects in later rounds, especiallly pitching. Overslots or over achievers like Arrieta, Britton, Hernandez, Berken, Bergesen, and Egan. I am not even going to mention all the overslots we got the past two years and the potential those guys can develop into.

It sets us back when our first round pick does not pan out, but I look at the drafts this past couple years (2005 and beyond) compared to the horrible drafts we had since our losing streak started, and I will say we are getting a lot more value from top to bottom then we were back then.

On a side note, the 2008 draft is starting to shape up very well, yes the Matusz pick was an easy one to decide, however, it looks like a lot of other people will likely end up in an Orioles jersey and provide value. I'm talking about Avery, Hoes, Miclat, Joseph, and Zagone. Also add in the potential of Beal, Bundy, and Drake and we have a lot of guys who panned out.

Even the Ravens all knowing scouting department mess up there 1st round pick every once in a while, Kyle Boller did not live up to his potential. It happens to every team in every sport there is not much you can do if you have done your research.