Billy Rowell is stirring...

[Frobby]

On a side note, the 2008 draft is starting to shape up very well, yes the Matusz pick was an easy one to decide, however, it looks like a lot of other people will likely end up in an Orioles jersey and provide value. I'm talking about Avery, Hoes, Miclat, Joseph, and Zagone. Also add in the potential of Beal, Bundy, and Drake and we have a lot of guys who panned out.

It's a bit early to say these guys "panned out," don't you think? Unless one or two decent seasons in the lower minors is "panning out" as you are using the term here.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

It's a bit early to say these guys "panned out," don't you think? Unless one or two decent seasons in the lower minors is "panning out" as you are using the term here.

Yeah my mistake thanks, they are on the right track so far.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Yeah my mistake thanks, they are on the right track so far.

On the right track to what? Of that group (Avery, Hoes, Miclat, Joseph, Zagone, Beal, Bundy, and Drake) I'd say that only Hoes has a reasonable chance of becoming an MLB regular and accounting for as many as 10 WAR in his career. Avery, maybe -- we'll know better next season. But there's a good chance that all the remaining six players won't have a dozen WAR between them.

Miclat and Joseph are looking marginal at best as they move into the upper levels. Zagone and Drake aren't putting up the kind of numbers that suggest they'll be fooling MLB hitters. Beal and Bundy have been flashing some promise, but they're a long way off, and they haven't sustained their successes.

Successful franchises aren't built on that kind of fringe talent.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

On the right track to what? Of that group (Avery, Hoes, Miclat, Joseph, Zagone, Beal, Bundy, and Drake) I'd say that only Hoes has a reasonable chance of becoming an MLB regular and accounting for as many as 10 WAR in his career. Avery, maybe -- we'll know better next season. But there's a good chance that all the remaining six players won't have a dozen WAR between them.

Miclat and Joseph are looking marginal at best as they move into the upper levels. Zagone and Drake aren't putting up the kind of numbers that suggest they'll be fooling MLB hitters. Beal and Bundy have been flashing some promise, but they're a long way off, and they haven't sustained their successes.

Successful franchises aren't built on that kind of fringe talent.

I believe that Avery and Hoes will be productive everyday players, both have shown great imprrovement this year. I expect Miclat and Joseph to be solid bench players, and Zagone to be a good Loogy. Considering we have gotten zero value out of our past drafts (before 2005, thats when our drafts started getting better) after the 1st round, I would say we are taking baby steps to becoming a better drafting franchise. Although Beal and Bundy are far off, they still have the projectability and having guys like that in your minor league system is always good because it gives your system potential.

We are very far away from being a successful franchise, and your right that great franchises are not built with fringe talent. However, these are good organizational guys that will give us depth, also they are helping produce winning ball clubs in the minors. They start providing waves and tiers of players playing together. Ultimately its Wieters, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, Hobgood, and Machado that are going to decide whether this team can compete. But having picks in the later rounds reach there full potential speaks volumes about your coaching and development. When I see guys like Hernandez and Berken who were not picked in the top 5 rounds start doing well at the majors, that means our coaching is doing well. So we can take projects like Beal, Bundy, and Coffey and just might strike gold.

[Old#5fan]

This is crazy, so Matusz, Wieters, were just luck? Rowell was rated pretty high! So lots of people thought this was a good pick. I believe some of this has more to with how we bring our hitters a long in the minors. Something that Jordan doesnt look to have control over. Now with that said Rowell has seemed to have alot of make it or break it years, for being 21. Im not going to give up on him but he is not a core player.

With the desparate need for talent of this team, taking a HS kid like Rowell who was described as an "all or nothing prospect" was stupid. A playoff team like the Yankees, Boston, or the Rays could take a chance on a high draft pick of that sort, not a team that is depending on high draft picks as vital pieces to help them regain respectibility. That is the biggest problem I think most folks have with this pick - the high risk factor for a team that could ill afford to take a risk or gamble.

[wtravlor]

With the desparate need for talent of this team, taking a HS kid like Rowell who was described as an "all or nothing prospect" was stupid. A playoff team like the Yankees, Boston, or the Rays could take a chance on a high draft pick of that sort, not a team that is depending on high draft picks as vital pieces to help them regain respectibility. That is the biggest problem I think most folks have with this pick - the high risk factor for a team that could ill afford to take a risk or gamble.

All draft picks came with a good chance of failure, I dont remember alot of complaints with thiw pick, nor after his solid debut. Sorry by the standard you would draft some who has no upside, or no projection to be better than average to good. Lets build a team around high picks who are safe but just good. So who was your pick? You know one who was well not a risk at this point in this draft?

[Frobby]

With the desparate need for talent of this team, taking a HS kid like Rowell who was described as an "all or nothing prospect" was stupid. A playoff team like the Yankees, Boston, or the Rays could take a chance on a high draft pick of that sort, not a team that is depending on high draft picks as vital pieces to help them regain respectibility. That is the biggest problem I think most folks have with this pick - the high risk factor for a team that could ill afford to take a risk or gamble.

Please show me where Rowell was described as an "all or nothing" pick. Or are you making that up without looking? Look, I'm not saying the Rowell pick can't be criticized, but the guy went from HS to Bluefield/Aberdeen and raked as a 17 year old right after the draft, and had a pretty devent season at Delmarva at 18. He has busted since then but that doesn't mean he was an overly risky pick at the time. There are very few sure things in the draft.

[olehippi]

Yes, this. The draft is something of a crapshoot compared to the NFL. But most 1st rounders play in the majors, and a significant percentage of second or even third rounders, too. Top-10 picks are clearly more valuable than guys from later picks or rounds.

Out of the 2005-2006 drafts do you know there are only two guys taken in the top 10 picks who haven't played in the majors? Rowell and Wade Townsend (after the Rays took him). Even in the 2007 draft half of the top 10 has already played in the majors. In 2002 only 2 of the top 20 haven't played in the majors.

I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown of how many 1st round HS picks like Rowell make it to the ML vs. 1st round college picks, like Matusz and Wieters.

[Frobby]

Bump....Rowell is ending the year well, hitting .419/.444./.548 in his last 10 games to raise his overall line to .276/.349/.413. 7 games left to play for the Keys, plus the playoffs. I think Rowell goes to Bowie next year, finally, and he'll still be only 22. He's not back to top prospect status, but he's done enouogh where you can't quite write him off completely, either.

[McLovin]

but he's done enouogh where you can't quite write him off completely, either.

...until you look at the K numbers.

[olehippi]

...until you look at the K numbers.

If Rowell develops the 30+ HR power everyone expects him to, and gets his OPS above .800, I suspect the K's will quickly become a secondary issue.

[Slappy]

If Rowell develops the 30+ HR power everyone expects him to, and gets his OPS above .800, I suspect the K's will quickly become a secondary issue.

Then he would be Brandon Waring!

[ThisIsOurHouse]

I wish we could send Rowell to AFL, but chances are we will send Hoes as our A representative. How Rowell is finishing this season strong has really been encouraging that our minors are heading in the right direction. This year we are starting to see more of our batters really take off (Avery, Hoes, Mahoney, Bell, and Townsend). Hopefully Rowell can build off his first positive year in the minors and head into Bowie with a head full of confidence and put up even better numbers.

The K numbers are not what you want to see but at least he is driving the ball this year, with more and more practice those K numbers will go down. Either two things are going to happen, one, Rowell is going to go back to his old self and slump again, or two, he will begin to improve and we will start to see those power numbers increase.

[eb45]

If Rowell develops the 30+ HR power everyone expects him to, and gets his OPS above .800, I suspect the K's will quickly become a secondary issue.

*expected

At least he's hitting a bit. Several guys have taken off at Bowie in the last few years, maybe Rowell could be the next one.

[Three Run Homer]

Even his recent hot streak is just a bunch of singles...his K/BB numbers for the last 10 games are still lousy and he's not hitting for power. Better that he hit singles than nothing at all, but he needs to show some secondary offensive skills before I get excited.